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Tiger Tipoff Preview: Arkansas

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The Missouri basketball team pulled off an upset when it handed then-No. 15 Alabama its first loss of SEC play on Saturday. The Tigers will look to carry that momentum into a road matchup with rival Arkansas on Wednesday.

Arkansas has some similarities to Alabama. The Razorbacks like to get up and down the court and have guards who can score points in bunches — most notably JD Notae, who leads the SEC in scoring at 18.8 points per game. But unlike the Crimson Tide, Arkansas has stumbled out of the gates in conference play. Arkansas enters Wednesday's matchup having lost each of its first three SEC matchups and five of its last six games overall.

Missouri beat Alabama with just 10 players available due to a COVID-19 outbreak within the team. The Tigers are expected to get at least one of Anton Brookshire and Amari Davis back in the lineup Wednesday, and possibly both.

Here is everything you need to know to get set for the matchup.

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Missouri's Kobe Brown scored a career-high 30 points against Alabama and is averaging 27 points per game in the Tigers' three wins over high-major competition.
Missouri's Kobe Brown scored a career-high 30 points against Alabama and is averaging 27 points per game in the Tigers' three wins over high-major competition. (D. Medley/USA Today)

                                         TIP TIME INFORMATION

Missouri (7-7) vs Arkansas (10-5)

WHEN: 8:00 p.m.

WHERE: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, Arkansas

TV: SEC Network

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)

SERIES: Alabama leads 30-26

KenPom Prediction: Arkansas 82-70

                                       THE STARTING LINEUPS

Arkansas Probable Starters
Player Class Height PPG RPG APG

JD Notae

SR

6-1

18.8

4.7

3.3

Davonte Davis

SO

6-3

10.1

4.4

3.9

Au'Diese Toney

SR

6-6

11.2

5.6

4.9

Stanley Umude

SR

6-6

10.5

4.0

0.8

Jaylin Williams

SO

6-10

7.0

8.5

3.4

Mizzou Probable Starters
Player Class Height PPG RPG APG

Boogie Coleman

JR

6-5

9.3

3.4

2.9

DaJuan Gordon

JR

6-4

8.8

4.4

1.3

Javon Pickett

SR

6-5

8.9

3.1

1.8

Trevon Brazile

FR

6-9

6.3

3.8

0.8

Kobe Brown

JR

6-7

15.3

8.8

2.4

                                                  BY THE NUMBERS

Statistical Matchup
Mizzou Category Arkansas

68.4

Scoring

80.1

71.8

Opponent PPG

70.9

25.3

Three-point percentage

30.2

41.1

Field goal percentage

45.9

+3.5

Rebound Margin

+1.7

13.8

Turnovers

12.7

170

Offensive Efficiency Rank

46

145

Defensive Efficiency Rank

78

186

Tempo

10

24

Strength of Schedule

181

                                        MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Stay in front of Notae. Notae showed his scoring ability on a couple occasions against Missouri last season, scoring 19 points in the first meeting between the two teams and 27 in the SEC Tournament. Now, with the Hogs' two leading scorers from last season both gone, Notae has taken over as the team's go-to guy on offense. He's shown the ability to both knock down three-pointers and get to the rim. Slowing him down will be key for Missouri. Notae and the entire Arkansas team like to get down the floor quickly and generate easy scoring opportunities that way, and if Missouri lets him blow by defenders like Kentucky's Sahvir Wheeler did, it will likely be a long night. The good news is the Tigers did a much better job of staying in front of Alabama point guard Jahvon Quinerly on Saturday. Look for DaJuan Gordon to draw Notae on defense after he did a solid job defending Quinerly.

2. Keep attacking the basket. Arkansas' recent struggles have largely been due to its defense. The Razorbacks have given up an average of 83.8 points per game during their five losses. A lot of those points have come from behind the three-point arc. On the season, 35.5 percent of the scoring for Arkansas opponents has come on three-point shots, while 48 percent has come from inside the arc. Only 30 teams have allowed a higher percentage of points from three, and only 33 have allowed a lower percentage from two. So, there should be opportunities for Missouri to get some open looks from behind the arc. But the Tigers can't fall in love with the three. A major reason for the Tigers' offensive success against Alabama was that the team prioritized moving the ball and getting looks around the basket, which then naturally created some openings from deep. The Tigers, which rank No. 352 out of 358 Division I teams in three-point percentage, need to keep that same approach against Arkansas, even if it takes a little bit more work to find open looks around the rim.

3. Keep Kobe Brown on the floor. Missouri has shown this season that, if it's going to beat high-major opponents, Brown is going to be the reason why. The reigning SEC player of the week scored 30 points and grabbed 13 rebounds against Alabama. In the Tigers' wins over SMU, Utah and Alabama, Brown is averaging 27 points. The biggest impediment to Brown's success this season has been foul trouble. That has typically occurred when Missouri has been playing on the road and when Brown is tasked with guarding a larger center. He will have to buck both trends at Arkansas. Razorback center Jaylin Williams stands 6-foot-10 and has grabbed double-digit rebounds in each of his past two games. Williams is not the scoring threat of an Oscar Tshiebwe or David McCormack, at least, but Brown will have his work cut out avoiding foul trouble while getting the better of that matchup.

                                     POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION

Missouri enters this game with quite a bit more momentum than the reeling Razorbacks. And if the Tigers can replicate several of the things they did well just four days ago — get back on defense, win the rebounding battle, move the ball on offense — they figure to have a shot to win this one. That being said, Bud Walton Arena is a tough place to play, and it's hard to pick the less-talented team to win on the road. Arkansas should be desperate to end its three-game skid, too.

FINAL SCORE: Arkansas 77, Missouri 70

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