Tiger Tipoff Preview: Arkansas
Arkansas will travel to Mizzou Arena Tuesday for the second matchup this season between the two conference rivals. Tiger fans would like to forget the first one.
On Jan. 12, Arkansas handed Missouri its worst loss ever under Cuonzo Martin. The Razorbacks jumped out to an early 26-5 lead and ultimately won by 44 points, 87-43.
Missouri did almost nothing right in the first matchup. The Tigers shot 29.2 percent from the field and 12.5 percent from three-point range, both season-lows against high-major competition. They also turned the ball over a season-high 25 times. On the other end of the floor, Arkansas shot 50 percent and had four players score at least 13 points.
While we would certainly expect a better showing from Missouri this time around, Arkansas actually looks like a more formidable opponent now than it did prior to the first meeting between these teams. The Razorbacks had lost three straight prior to bludgeoning Missouri, but they used that game to spark a nine-game winning streak, which culminated with an upset of No. 1 Auburn last Tuesday. Arkansas did cool off on Saturday, falling at Alabama by a point, but the winning streak boosted the Razorbacks back into bracket projections and into the top 25 at No. 23.
Missouri could be riding a bit of momentum into the matchup after securing a season sweep of Ole Miss on Saturday, although the Tigers have struggled to string together victories this season. Missouri hasn't won consecutive games since mid November.
Here is everything else you need to know to get set for the matchup.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
Missouri (10-14) vs. Arkansas (19-6)
WHEN: 8:00 p.m.
WHERE: Mizzou Arena
TV: SEC Network
RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)
SERIES: Arkansas leads 31-26
KenPom Prediction: Arkansas 73-67
THE STARTING LINEUPS
| Player | Class | Height | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
JD Notae |
SR |
6-1 |
18.8 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
|
Stanley Umude |
SR |
6-6 |
10.9 |
4.6 |
1.0 |
|
Trey Wade |
SR |
6-6 |
3.3 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
|
Au'Diese Toney |
SR |
6-6 |
10.8 |
5.5 |
0.9 |
|
Jaylin Williams |
SO |
6-10 |
10.0 |
9.2 |
2.7 |
| Player | Class | Height | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Boogie Coleman |
JR |
6-5 |
9.5 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
|
DaJuan Gordon |
JR |
6-4 |
8.8 |
4.3 |
1.3 |
|
Javon Pickett |
SR |
6-5 |
9.9 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
|
Trevon Brazile |
FR |
6-9 |
5.6 |
3.8 |
0.7 |
|
Kobe Brown |
JR |
6-7 |
12.9 |
8.1 |
2.6 |
BY THE NUMBERS
| Mizzou | Category | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
|
66.4 |
Scoring |
78.2 |
|
70.4 |
Opponent PPG |
68.3 |
|
28.5 |
Three-point percentage |
30.5 |
|
43.3 |
Field goal percentage |
44.4 |
|
+1.3 |
Rebound Margin |
+4.9 |
|
14.2 |
Turnovers |
12.8 |
|
125 |
Offensive Efficiency Rank |
68 |
|
148 |
Defensive Efficiency Rank |
20 |
|
267 |
Tempo |
19 |
|
8 |
Strength of Schedule |
73 |
MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Take better care of the ball. Of the many problems for Missouri during the beatdown it endured in Fayetteville, the turnovers were the most glaring. Arkansas picked up the Tiger ball-handlers with three-quarter court pressure and the Missouri players had no idea how to handle it. That resulted in the Tigers turning the ball over 23 times, many of which resulted in Razorback dunks. And even when Missouri didn't turn the ball over, the pressure took the offense completely out of its rhythm. The Tigers shot 3-25 in the first half. That's impossibly bad. Considering how successful it was in the first matchup, Missouri should expect a similar dose of pressure from Arkansas this time around. The Tiger guards need to do a better job of handling it.
2. Break even on the boards. Arkansas' season turnaround has been keyed, in part, by dominance on the boards. During the Razorbacks' nine game win streak, they out-rebounded their opponent in all but one matchup. Jaylin Williams, who ranks second in the SEC at 9.2 rebounds per game, leads the way, but Arkansas' guards get to the glass, as well. Five different Arkansas players average more than four rebounds per game. It will take a team effort for Missouri to box out and at least keep the rebounding margin close. And that has been a must for the Tigers this season. Due in part to its shooting struggles, Missouri is 10-3 this season when it records more rebounds than its opponent and 0-11 when it fails to do so.
3. Make someone other than Notae beat you. Arkansas' JD Notae has blossomed into one of the most lethal scorers in the country as a senior. The one-time Jacksonville transfer ranks second in the SEC in scoring at 18.8 points per game, just barely behind Vanderbilt's Scottie Pippen Jr. Notae has reached double figures in all 24 of Arkansas' games this season and has topped 20 points in eight of them. He led all scorers with 28 points in Arkansas' upset of Auburn last week. If Missouri is going to topple Arkansas, slowing down Notae is a must. A Tiger team that is not built to win in the upper 70s or 80s needs to make the Razorbacks work for their points. One key to doing so will be avoiding fouling Notae. He averages more than four free throw attempts per game and shoots 74.5 percent from the line when he gets there. Half of his points against Auburn came from the charity stripe. Considering its thin bench (Missouri was down to eight available players Saturday) and inability to get to the free throw line itself, the Tigers need to stay in front of Notae and prevent him from drawing whistles.
POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION
Missouri has been playing better lately than what we saw when the Tigers visited Fayetteville. But the gulf between that loss, when Arkansas could have failed to score a single point in the second half and still won the game, and actually competing with the Hogs is massive. Given Arkansas' ability to pressure opposing ball-handlers and score points in bunches, this is just not a good matchup for Missouri. We think it would take a horrendous shooting night from the Razorbacks for the Tigers to keep it close.
FINAL SCORE: Arkansas 76, Missouri 64