Monday, Auburn achieved the No. 1 ranking in the AP Top 25 for the first time in program history. The Tigers' first game with a 1 next to their name will come at Missouri.
Auburn ascended to the top of the polls thanks to a nine-point win over Kentucky on Saturday. Auburn has started SEC play 7-0, with only one of those wins coming by fewer than nine points. Bruce Pearl's bunch hasn't lost since Nov. 24, when it dropped a neutral site matchup against Connecticut in double overtime. Since then, Auburn has reeled off 15 wins in a row.
All of that is to say Missouri will have its hands full with the visiting Tigers. Auburn is led by freshman Jabari Smith, who has generated hype as the potential No. 1 pick in next summer's NBA Draft. Smith stands 6-foot-10 but can do a little bit of everything. He's averaging 15.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game while shooting 42.3 percent from three-point range. But Auburn has more weapons than just Smith. Seven-footer Walker Kessler is averaging 10.7 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. The North Carolina transfer leads the SEC in blocks at 4.1 per contest. In the backcourt, Wendell Green Jr. and K.D. Johnson both average more than 13 points per game, and Green also dishes 5.1 assists per game. Eight Auburn players average at least five points per game.
If Missouri can find a way to pull off an upset, how significant would that be? It would mark the first win for the Tigers over the No. 1 team since 1997, when Missouri upset Kansas in overtime. Here's everything you need to know to get set for the matchup.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
Missouri (8-10) vs Auburn (18-1)
WHEN: 7:30 p.m.
WHERE: Mizzou Arena
TV: SEC Network
RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)
SERIES: Auburn leads 7-6
KenPom Prediction: Auburn 78-64
THE STARTING LINEUPS
BY THE NUMBERS
MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Contain Auburn's bigs. Smith has gotten most of the headlines for Auburn this season, and deservedly so. Speaking to reporters Monday, Cuonzo Martin compared him to former Missouri star Michael Porter Jr. But the fact that Auburn can pair him with Kessler makes it virtually impossible for opponents to go small. That could be problematic for Missouri. Either the Tigers will need to match Kobe Brown up against Kessler on the defensive end and risk him getting into early foul trouble or play Brown on Smith and try to slow down Kessler with the combination of Trevon Brazile and Ronnie DeGray, both of whom would be giving up quite a bit of size. However Martin decides to dole out the defensive assignments, Missouri can't afford to let Smith and Kessler dominate down low all game.
2. Keep up the hot shooting. Not only is Kessler a problematic matchup on offense, he leads the nation in block rate. It's no coincidence, then, that Auburn leads the country in block rate as a team and ranks 13th in two-point defense. That could be an issue for a Missouri team that has struggled mightily from three-point range for most of the season. However, the Tigers have shot the ball much better from deep the past two games, making a combined 15 of 31 attempts from behind the arc. Missouri will almost certainly have to keep that up to have a chance against Auburn. If the Tigers can successfully stretch Auburn's defense out and lure Kessler away from the rim, that could open up other offensive opportunities. But if the shots aren't falling and Auburn can pack its defense in, it could be a long night for the home team.
3. Get to the line more. The free throw disparity in Missouri's loss at Alabama has been well-documented. Both Martin and Boogie Coleman questioned the officiating after the Tigers shot just five free throws compared to 29 for the Crimson Tide. And while that might have been a product of poor officiating, it's also been a trend this season that Missouri has not gotten to the line as often as its opponents. In eight of the team's 12 games against high-major opponents (including SMU and Wichita State), Missouri has attempted fewer free throws than its opponents. Add all 12 of those games together, and the Tigers have shot 63 fewer times from the charity stripe than the other teams. Auburn's one defensive weakness this season has been fouls. Auburn has allowed its opponents to score 20.8 percent of their points from the free throw line, 53rd-most in the country. If Missouri can find a way to get to the line early and often, it would not only create easy scoring opportunities, which figure to be difficult to come by against Auburn's defense, but foul trouble could also slow down Pearl's trademark on-ball pressure.
POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION
Auburn is the No. 1 team in the country for a reason. It doesn't have a lot of flaws. The visiting Tigers are more talented than Missouri at every position and have a deeper bench, to boot. Missouri's best chance at keeping this game close would seem to be if Auburn comes out sluggish after its big win over Kentucky on Saturday and can't find an offensive rhythm. For the Tigers to actually pull the upset, they would likely also need to shoot lights out from three-point range and get Auburn into foul trouble.
FINAL SCORE: Auburn 75, Missouri 62
