Published Jan 11, 2020
Tiger Tipoff Preview: Florida
Mitchell Forde  •  Mizzou Today
Staff
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Prior to each of the major non-conference games and every SEC game for the Tigers, we will post the Tiger Tipoff Preview to get you set for the matchup. Here is our preview of today's home matchup against Florida.

                                         TIP TIME INFORMATION

Missouri (8-6) vs Florida (10-4)

WHEN: 7:30 p.m.

WHERE: Mizzou Arena

TV: SEC Network

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)

SERIES: Florida leads 7-2 (Florida won last season 64-60)

KenPom Prediction: Florida 63-62

                                       THE STARTING LINEUPS

Florida Probable Starters
PlayerClassHeightPPGRPGAPG

Andrew Nembhard

SO

6-5

11.4

2.8

6.1

Noah Locke

SO

6-3

9.9

3.2

0.7

Scottie Lewis

FR

6-5

9.2

5.0

0.5

Keyontae Johnson

JR

6-5

13.4

6.9

1.3

Kerry Blackshear Jr.

JR

6-10

14.6

8.7

1.6

Mizzou Probable Starters
PlayerClassHeightPPGRPGAPG

Dru Smith

JR

6-3

11.3

4.4

4.2

Mark Smith

JR

6-5

11.1

4.7

0.7

Mitchell Smith

JR

6-10

4.3

3.8

0.7

Reed Nikko

SR

6-10

2.2

2.1

0.3

Kobe Brown

FR

6-7

5.6

2.9

0.5

                                                  BY THE NUMBERS

Statistical Matchup
MizzouCategoryFlorida

66.7

PPG

73.9

57.7

PPG Allowed

65.5

48.9

Field Goal %

49.8

30.5

Three-Point %

31.8

+4.1

Rebound Margin

+4.3

14.4

Turnovers

12.0

132

Offensive Efficiency Rank

38

32

Defensive Efficiency Rank

31

286

Tempo

288

94

Strength of Schedule

32

                                        MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Contain Kerry Blackshear Jr. The arrival of Blackshear, a graduate transfer from Virginia Tech, was the main reason Florida began this season ranked in the top five. While the Gators have disappointed a bit, Blackshear has been as good as advertised. The 6-foot-10 forward is averaging 14.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. He specializes in drawing fouls on opponents down low — he ranks 10th among all players In the country In fouls drawn per 40 minutes — but he can also step out to the perimeter and knock down jump shots. If that sounds familiar, Blackshear might be reminding you of Kentucky forward Nick Richards, who just a week ago torched Missouri for 21 points, 12 rebounds and 4 blocks. Especially with Jeremiah Tilmon sidelined by a stress fracture in his foot, it will be a tall task to ask Missouri's bigs to stop Blackshear. Simply keeping him in check — say, under 15 points — would be a win.

2. Get to the free throw line. Missouri has yet to reach 60 points in SEC play and hasn't scored more than 66 in six games against teams ranked in the KenPom top 100. The Tigers simply have to generate more points. Speaking with reporters Friday, Cuonzo Martin said the two ways the team can do so is by taking advantage of transition opportunities and getting to the free throw line. Specifically, Martin mentioned guards Dru Smith and Mark Smith as players he would like to see drive to the basket more often and earn more trips to the free throw line. Percentage wise, Missouri is a solid free throw shooting team, but the Tigers have been too content to settle for spot-up shots at times this season. Attacking the basket and drawing fouls would present easy scoring opportunities for a team that needs them.

3. Make it ugly. In each of Florida's four losses this season, the Gators have failed to score more than 62 points. Missouri, meanwhile, hasn't won a game all season in which an opponent scored 63 or more. The Tigers' goal is always to make it as difficult as possible for opponents to score, and doing so will be especially important against Florida. The one issue is that Florida's offense appears to have found its stride in recent games. The Gators are averaging 95.7 points per game in their last three contests. If Missouri is going to keep this one in the low 60's, the Tigers will have to clean up their defensive mistakes from the Tennessee game and also hope that Florida has a cold shooting night.

                                     POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION

The fact that Florida hasn't shot the ball particularly well from the perimeter and has been prone to poor offensive showings this season gives Missouri a chance. But the Gators are clearly the more talented team, and without Tilmon, it's difficult to envision Missouri having an answer for Blackshear down low. Having lost its first two SEC games, we think Missouri comes out desperate and manages to keep the game close throughout, but until we see proof that the Tigers can score more than 65 or so points against quality competition, we can't pick them to win this one.

FINAL SCORE: Florida 68, Mizzou 61