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Prior to each of the major non-conference games and every SEC game for the Tigers, we will post the Tiger Tipoff Preview to get you set for the matchup. Here is our preview of tonight's game against Temple.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
Missouri (6-4) vs Illinois (8-3)
WHEN: 12:00 p.m.
WHERE: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO
TV: SEC Network
RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)
SERIES: Illinois leads 32 to 17 (Missouri won last year 79-63)
KenPom Prediction: Illinois 66-65
THE STARTING LINEUPS
BY THE NUMBERS
MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Start fast. Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Cuonzo Martin acknowledged that this is not just another game. The neutral site and the fact that Missouri's roster features one player who spent a year on Illinois' roster and two more who initially committed to the Illini should combine for a raucous atmosphere. In years past, Missouri has not handled that atmosphere well to start the game and has been unable to dig itself out of the hole. That has been a problem this season, as well. The Tigers trailed 15-3 early in consecutive losses to Butler and Oklahoma in the Hall of Fame classic in Kansas City, then 12-3 midway through the first half in a shocking loss to Charleston Southern. Martin has since switched up the starting lineup and Missouri has started better its last couple games, but the energy and emotion of this matchup could make doing so more of a challenge.
2. Tilmon needs to hold his own down low. Illinois features one of the best big men in the country in Kofi Cockburn. The freshman is averaging a double-double with 15.4 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. He's part of the reason Illinois ranks second nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and leads the country in rebounding margin. He has been adept at drawing fouls, shooting an average of six free throws per game, and has not fouled out of a contest himself. In short, he's the toughest matchup Jeremiah Tilmon will have faced this season. At this point in his career, Tilmon's importance to Missouri's success is well-documented, but he may be extra valuable against the Illini. Missouri will not only look to run its offense through Tilmon, as usual, but he is likely the only player on the roster who can match Cockburn's physicality on the defensive end and the glass. Missouri doesn't necessarily need Tilmon to put up better offensive numbers than Cockburn Saturday, but if he can stay on the floor while remaining aggressive as a post defender and rebounder, it would greatly improve the Tigers' chances.
3. Knock down outside shots. At this point, a third of the way through the regular season, it's probably time to stop waiting for Missouri to magically return to its three-point shooting from 2018. A year after shooting 36.3 percent as a team, the Tigers are shooting just 26.6 percent this season. That ranks 338th out of 353 Division I teams. That said, the shots have to start falling at a slightly higher rate at some point, right? Martin has said he is okay with player shooting from outside as long as they are open, so if that's the case Saturday, Missouri needs to find someone who can knock down a few shots from behind the arc. The most likely candidate would seem to be Mark Smith, who drained seven three-pointers on Sunday against Southern Illinois, but expect the Illini to do everything they can to avoid giving Smith, who spent his freshman season at Illinois, open looks. If that's the case, someone else, be it Dru Smith or Torrence Watson or Xavier Pinson, needs to knock down some outside shots in order to spread out the Illinois defense. The Illini have been vulnerable from three at times this year; they've allowed three opponents to shoot better than 40 percent from behind the arc. They lost two of those games and needed overtime to beat Nicholls State In the other.
POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION
At least on paper, Illinois and Missouri are structured similarly. Both teams want to slow the game down and play through their starting centers. Both value rebounding and have struggled with outside shooting and turnovers. Illinois likely has more confidence than Missouri after knocking off No. 14 Michigan on Dec. 11, but Missouri almost certainly needs this win more. Assuming neither team gets red hot from three-point range, look for a close, physical matchup that will be decided by turnovers and second-chance points. A Tiger win wouldn't surprise anyone, but right now, we're giving Illinois the slight edge.
FINAL SCORE: Illinois 64, Missouri 61
