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Published Dec 12, 2020
Tiger Tipoff Preview: Illinois
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Mitchell Forde  •  Mizzou Today
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@mitchell4d

Like virtually everything else in 2020, Missouri's annual Braggin' Rights matchup against Illinois will look a bit different this year. There will be no split crowd, no boos raining down when former Illinois player Mark Smith or former Illini signees Jeremiah Tilmon and Javon Pickett are introduced. The game won't be played in St. Louis, its usual home, but in Mizzou Arena, the result of a live-streamed coin flip. No fans will be allowed to attend, save for a few family members.

But the rivalry between the two teams still persists, and given that this will pit a Missouri team that is 4-0 for the first time since 2013-14 and a top-10 Illini squad coming off a momentous win at Duke, the stakes will be plenty high. Here is everything you need to know to get set for the second big sporting event of the day in Columbia.

                                         TIP TIME INFORMATION

Missouri (4-0) vs Illinois (4-1)

WHEN: 7:00 p.m.

WHERE: Mizzou Arena

TV: SEC Network-Alternate

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)

SERIES: Illinois leads 32 to 18 (Missouri won last year 63-56)

KenPom Prediction: Illinois 72-71

                                       THE STARTING LINEUPS

Illinois Probable Starters
PlayerClassHeightPPGRPGAPG

Kofi Cockburn

SO

7-0

13.0

9.4

0.2

Ayo Dosunmu

JR

6-5

22.6

8.2

6.0

Trent Frazier

SR

6-2

9.2

3.8

2.8

Adam Miller

FR

6-3

13.4

2.2

1.0

Da'Monte Williams

SR

6-3

7.6

6.8

2.2

Mizzou Probable Starters
PlayerClassHeightPPGRPGAPG

Dru Smith

SR

6-3

13.8

3.5

3.8

Mark Smith

SR

6-5

17.3

3.5

1.5

Xavier Pinson

JR

6-3

13.5

4.8

4.0

Jeremiah Tilmon

SR

6-10

8.5

8.8

1.5

Kobe Brown

SO

6-7

6.5

5.8

1.3

                                                  BY THE NUMBERS

Statistical Matchup
MizzouCategoryIllinois

78.8

PPG

89.6

65.3

PPG Allowed

64.6

49.6

Field Goal %

54.0

32.6

Three-Point %

47.3

+7.0

Rebound Margin

+12.0

12.3

Turnovers

15.8

36

Offensive Efficiency Rank

11

44

Defensive Efficiency Rank

31

264

Tempo

144

98

Strength of Schedule

130

                                        MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Create your own energy. Missouri has several players who either hail from the state of Illinois or have direct ties to the Illini program. The past couple years, those players have not kept it a secret that this game means a little bit more than most. This year, the challenge will be taking the floor with that same intensity and edge even in a mostly empty arena — but not pressing. Cuonzo Martin downplayed the impact of the venue change, noting that both teams have already played big games in front of no fans this year, so it's not necessarily that aspect that will be new. But as much as Martin and his players said Friday that this is just another basketball game, Missouri seems to play better when it doesn't approach the matchup that way, instead embracing the rivalry. The challenge will be doing that while still playing a comfortable style.

“I think what we always talk about is playing the game on the floor, and what I mean by that is all that other stuff is swirling around in the arena, let’s lock in and let’s play the game on the wood," Martin said. "Don’t get consumed with all the other stuff, because you can lose focus, and carrying out our assignments and the task at hand, winning the basketball game, and these are the things we need to do to win the basketball game, so let’s focus on that. Anything else, you don’t need.”

2. Contain Dosunmu. Illinois is loaded with scoring options this season, but junior Ayo Dosunmu is the engine that makes the Illini go. Dosunmu is playing like a first-team all-American so far this year. He has recorded at least 18 points, six rebounds and five assists in every game. He does most of his damage by driving and getting to the rim and/or the free throw line, but his three-point shot has improved this season, as well. He's made 8 of 19 shots from behind the arc through five games.

Missouri needs to keep him from taking over the game, and because of the plethora of weapons surrounding Dosunmu, it likely needs to do so without double-teaming him if at all possible. Martin has sung the defensive praises of Dru Smith, Mark Smith and Pickett this season. If the three of them can combine to keep Dosunmu out of the lane, Missouri's chances of winning will improve drastically. The good news for the Tigers is they've been fairly successful at limiting Dosunmu in years past. He scored just two points in 2018, and while he had 21 last season, it took him 15 shots to get there, and he had four turnovers versus no assists.

3. Take advantage of scoring opportunities. Even if Missouri is successful in slowing down Dosunmu, the Tigers aren't likely to hold Illinois in the low 60s or 50s like the past two seasons. The Illini have been an elite offensive team so far this season. They rank fourth nationally in three-point shooting percentage, eighth in effective field goal percentage and 11th in offensive efficiency.

"They’ll take three-point shots, they’ll get the ball downhill," Martin said. "You have to make some decisions when the ball goes inside: How do you defend that? Do you double the post? Now you gotta be ready to rotate. All these things. ... When you get to top 10, five in the country, there’s a reason why you’re that.”

As a result, Missouri is going to have to score to keep up. There are two likely paths to doing so: taking advantage of transition opportunities and knocking down three-pointers. If there has been one weakness for Illinois this season, it's been ball security. The Illini have turned the ball over on more than 21 percent of possessions this season. Missouri has shown an increasing willingness to push the pace off turnovers in search of fast break points; doing so Saturday will be key. In addition, the Tigers need to shoot from the perimeter more like they did in the second half against Liberty than the first. At 32.6 percent on the season, three-point shooting has still been a bit of an issue for Missouri. Take out Mark Smith's 13-25 shooting, and the team is 25.4 percent from behind the arc. Someone other than Smith is likely going to have to hit a few outside shots to open up driving lanes for the guards and put pressure on Illinois' offense.

                                     POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION

After bringing virtually every significant contributor back from last season and adding a couple impact freshmen, Illinois looks like a legitimate Final Four contender. The Illini have four players averaging more than 10 points per game and six who average more than eight. Even though Missouri has been better on offense so far this season, it will be a tall task to keep up with that balance. Plus, after losing as a favorite each against Missouri of the past two years, Illinois should be hungry for a win. We think the Tigers keep it close throughout but Illinois makes a couple more plays down the stretch.

FINAL SCORE: Illinois 73, Missouri 70

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