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Prior to each of the major non-conference games and every SEC game for the Tigers, we will post the Tiger Tipoff Preview to get you set for the matchup. Here is our preview of today's SEC opener against Kentucky.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
Missouri (8-4) vs Kentucky (9-3)
WHEN: 1 p.m.
WHERE: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
TV: SEC Network
RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)
SERIES: Kentucky leads 12-1 (Kentucky won last meeting 66-58 in 2019)
KenPom Prediction: Kentucky 68-60
THE STARTING LINEUPS
BY THE NUMBERS
MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Keep up the hot shooting. After nearly the entire roster struggled to find its three-point shooting stroke during the first nine games of the season, Missouri has gotten back on track from behind the arc in the last few weeks. The Tigers have shot 42.6 percent from behind the arc in their past three games combined, including a 16-for-31 performance against Chicago State on Monday. Remaining hot from three would be huge in this matchup, when points figure to be at a premium, especially since Missouri continues to lean on the outside shot. The Tigers attempt 23.2 three-pointers per game — No. 125 nationally — despite ranking No. 305 in number of possessions per game. Also key for Missouri in the past few outings has been that it hasn't just been Mark Smith making the three-point shots. Xavier Pinson and Javon Pickett both hit a couple from deep against Illinois, and Torrence Watson broke out of his season-long shooting slump by draining eight three-pointers against Chicago State. Missouri's offense is significantly more difficult to guard if the perimeter players are a threat to knock down shots.
2. Hold your own down low. Kentucky always seems to have a big team, and this year is no different. The Wildcats have four players in their regular rotation that stand 6-foot-7 or taller, including the starting frontcourt duo of Nick Richards and E.J. Montgomery, both of whom top 6-foot-10. This year's Kentucky team, especially, thrives on scoring inside. Kentucky ranks No. 300 nationally in three-point shooting, and as a result, the Wildcats score 81.3 percent of their points from two-pointers and free-throws. Look for John Calipari to get Richards, in particular, established early, as he has been the x-factor for Kentucky all season. When he has scored in double-digits, the Wildcats are 8-0. Missouri has played stout interior defense for much of the year, but the Tigers could be without Jeremiah Tilmon Saturday, as he missed Monday's game due to a foot injury. If Tilmon sits out — or has his minutes limited by the injury or fouls — Kentucky's bigs could feast around the rim.
3. Take care of the ball. By this point in Cuonzo Martin's tenure, it's no surprise to see turnovers listed as a key to the game. The Tigers have struggled with ball security over the past few seasons, and since Martin's slow-paced style is predicated on limiting possessions for opponents, giveaways become more costly. Kentucky's rangy guards have been particularly adept at jumping into passing lanes this season; the Wildcats rank sixth in the country in steal percentage. Missouri likely needs to make Saturday's game as ugly and low-scoring as possible, so if the Tigers give Kentucky 15 or so free points off turnovers, their chances of pulling the upset will dwindle.
POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION
With a home loss to Evansville and neutral-site loss to Utah during non-conference play, Kentucky has looked far from invincible so far this season. If the Wildcats shoot poorly from deep, don't get Richards going and can't get to the free-throw line, Missouri could find itself with a chance to win the game late. However, Kentucky is also almost certainly the most talented team in the SEC, and having lost two of its past three games and getting a week to prepare, it would be a surprise to see the Wildcats come out unprepared or overlook Missouri. We think Missouri hangs around but Kentucky pulls away during the second half, which would still be an upgrade from the Tigers' past few performances in Rupp Arena.
FINAL SCORE: Kentucky 67, Missouri 56
