Tiger Tipoff Preview: Kentucky

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In most seasons, when Kentucky comes to town, it arrives with a high national ranking and an army of future first-round draft picks. But this year is different. Not only will the Wildcats take on Missouri a day later than originally scheduled due to a positive COVID-19 test within the program, they are just 5-10 on the season, unranked and likely on the outside of the NCAA Tournament field. No. 18 Missouri, meanwhile, will need to avoid looking past Kentucky to a home date with Alabama, which leads the SEC at 9-0 in league play. The Tigers dropped their last conference game but rebounded by overcoming a 12-point deficit in the final five minutes against TCU and winning in overtime.

Here's all the information you need to know to get set for the unusual matchup.

Missouri (11-3) vs Kentucky (5-10)

WHEN: 6:00 p.m.

WHERE: Mizzou Arena

TV: ESPN 2

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)

SERIES: Kentucky leads 13-1

KenPom Prediction: Missouri 69-65

1. Defend the paint. Kentucky doesn't do very many things well on the offensive end of the floor, but its main weakness is clear. The Wildcats are one of the few high-major teams that actually shoots three-pointers at a worse rate than Missouri. They have made just 29 percent of shots behind the arc this season, which ranks No. 312 out of 347 Division I teams. As a result, look for John Calipari to instruct his players to drive to the basket whenever possible. Stopping penetration from guards has been a major issue for Missouri the past two games. TCU scored a whopping 48 points in the paint. The Tigers need to get that cleaned up and make Kentucky work to score down low. If Missouri is able to get back to playing the type of defense we've seen for most of this season, they should be positioned well to win this one, as Kentucky has needed to score in the 70s to win games. In each of the Wildcats' five wins this season, they've scored at least 76 points, while they have failed to top 65 points in all 10 losses.

2. Control the defensive glass. The one thing Kentucky's offense has consistently produced is a lot of missed shots, and the Wildcats have been good at turning them into second-chance points. Kentucky ranks 30th nationally in offensive rebounding rate, cleaning up a whopping 34.7 percent of its own misses. Missouri, meanwhile, has been susceptible to second-chance points at times this season. On Saturday, TCU scored 21 points off its own misses. Keeping the likes of Keion Brooks, Olivier Sarr and Isaiah Jackson off the offensive glass will be paramount to the Tigers' ability to keep Kentucky under 70 points.

3. Finish strong at the rim. Missouri has shot the ball much better from the perimeter over its past five games, including catching fire at the end of the second half against TCU. While it would be ideal for the Tigers to carry that shooting over, it seems unlikely, as Kentucky ranks among the top 50 teams nationally in three-point defense and the past two seasons have shown that Missouri is more likely to shoot under 30 percent from outside than over. So, the best plan of attack for the Tigers is probably to attack the basket, either with Jeremiah Tilmon in the low post or the backcourt combo of Xavier Pinson and Dru Smith on drives. Once the team gets the ball to the basket, the key will be finishing. Kentucky ranks fourth nationally in block rate. Facing a similarly long, athletic defense at Auburn last week, Missouri looked rattled, getting 14 shots blocked and shooting 12-26 at the rim. The Tiger players will need to go up strong, draw fouls and convert short-range scoring opportunities against Kentucky's stingy defense.

Despite Kentucky's record, this is far from a sure win for Missouri. The Wildcats still have plenty of talent in the form of eight former top-100 recruits, and they've shown flashes of putting it all together, beating both Florida and LSU by double-digits this season. Long, athletic defenses like Kentucky's have given Missouri problems this season, as well. But if Missouri improves its one-on-one defense and is able to stay in front of Kentucky's guards and wings plus keep the Wildcats on the offensive glass, we just don't think the Wildcats can score enough points to keep pace with the Tigers on their home floor.

FINAL SCORE: Missouri 70, Kentucky 63