Tiger Tipoff Preview: LSU
Missouri punched its ticket without a shadow of a doubt to the NCAA Tournament with its upset of Florida in Gainesville on Wednesday. Now, the Tigers will look to carry that momentum into the postseason by knocking off LSU in the regular-season finale, a make-up of a game originally scheduled to be played Jan. 9.
Not only will Missouri honor five seniors — Jeremiah Tilmon, Dru Smith, Mark Smith, Mitchell Smith and Drew Buggs — at the game, the matchup has SEC Tournament seeding implications for the Tigers. Win, and Missouri will be the five seed in Nashville. Lose, and it will be either the seven or the eight.
Here is everything you need to know to get set for the matchup.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
Missouri (15-7) vs. LSU (15-8)
WHEN: 2:00 p.m.
WHERE: Mizzou Arena
TV: SEC Network
RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)
SERIES: LSU leads 8-2
KenPom Prediction: Missouri 80-79
THE STARTING LINEUPS
| Player | Class | Height | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Cameron Thomas |
FR |
6-4 |
22.8 |
3.4 |
1.4 |
|
Trendon Watford |
SO |
6-9 |
16.0 |
7.4 |
3.2 |
|
Javonte Smart |
JR |
6-4 |
16.0 |
3.3 |
4.1 |
|
Darius Days |
JR |
6-7 |
11.7 |
7.5 |
0.7 |
|
Mwami Wilkison |
FR |
6-5 |
3.9 |
3.0 |
0.7 |
| Player | Class | Height | PPG | RPG | APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Dru Smith |
SR |
6-3 |
14.0 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
|
Mark Smith |
SR |
6-5 |
10.1 |
2.8 |
1.1 |
|
Xavier Pinson |
JR |
6-3 |
14.0 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
|
Jeremiah Tilmon |
SR |
6-10 |
12.9 |
7.6 |
0.9 |
|
Kobe Brown |
SO |
6-7 |
7.6 |
5.9 |
0.7 |
BY THE NUMBERS
| Mizzou | Category | LSU |
|---|---|---|
|
73.8 |
PPG |
82.5 |
|
71.5 |
PPG Allowed |
75.2 |
|
45.5 |
Field Goal % |
46.7 |
|
32.0 |
Three-Point % |
34.7 |
|
+0.4 |
Rebound Margin |
+0.8 |
|
13.3 |
Turnovers |
12.2 |
|
36 |
Offensive Efficiency Rank |
6 |
|
59 |
Defensive Efficiency Rank |
126 |
|
163 |
Tempo |
61 |
|
17 |
Strength of Schedule |
45 |
MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Keep LSU out of the lane. Cuonzo Martin said after Missouri's win over Florida, during which the Tigers forced 18 turnovers, that his team got back to its identity on the defensive end. It will face a challenge in trying to replicate that Saturday. LSU ranks sixth nationally in offensive efficiency and seventh in scoring, averaging 82.5 points per game. Will Wade's team has three players averaging at least 16 points per game on the year. Missouri has none. Led by stud freshman Cameron Thomas, LSU has done most of its scoring inside the three-point arc, either via two-point shots or free throws. Missouri has struggled to stay in front of opposing guards at times this season. If that's the case Saturday, it could be a long game. Speaking to reporters Friday, Martin said the key against LSU will simply be not letting the visiting Tigers get comfortable by contesting shots and catches. Getting back in transition will be key, as well. LSU averages less than 16 seconds per offensive possession, 35th-fastest in the country.
2. Attack the basket. Missouri has been shooting the ball fairly well from behind the three-point arc of late, including making nine of 22 shots from deep against Florida. But the Tigers need to avoid falling in love with the three-ball. LSU's defense has been far more vulnerable this season inside the arc, and Missouri's offense is best when it is attacking North to South. LSU ranks 27th nationally in three-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 30.1 percent from behind the arc, but 246th in two-point defense. There should be opportunities for Missouri to push the pace against LSU, which is a good thing, but it will be important for the Tigers not to take too many quick three-pointers, instead taking the time to run the offense and either get drives from Dru Smith and Xavier Pinson or feed Tilmon in the post.
3. Crash the boards. A huge aspect of Missouri's win at Florida was the fact that the Tigers attempted 18 more shots than the Gators. One reason for that was Missouri grabbing 10 offensive rebounds, which led to nine second-chance points, compared to four for Florida. LSU has been susceptible on the offensive glass this season, allowing opponents to grab 31.6 percent of their misses. That comes in at No. 298 nationally. That said, LSU has been nearly as effective at rebounding on the other end of the floor, controlling 31.1 percent of its own misses. If Missouri wins the rebounding battle, that will probably also mean it scored more second-chance points than LSU, which could be key in this one. It will take a bit of a balancing act for the Tigers, however, as you don't want to emphasize offensive rebounding to the detriment of transition defense and allow LSU easy points that way.
POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION
Missouri simply has to play the kind of defense it played against Florida, rather than what it showed for most of its recent rough patch, to have a chance against LSU. The visiting Tigers are 11-0 when the score 83 or more points this season and 4-8 when they score 81 or fewer. Transition defense and staying in front of the LSU guards will be the biggest keys to doing so. As long as Missouri can do that, we expect a close game, and it's hard to pick against a team honoring five seniors on Senior Day.
FINAL SCORE: Missouri 82, LSU 78