Published Jan 5, 2021
Tiger Tipoff Preview: Mississippi State
Mitchell Forde  •  Mizzou Today
Staff
Twitter
@mitchell4d

Missouri went 1-1 across the first week of SEC play, falling at home to Tennessee for its first loss of the season, then rebounding with a 13-point win at Arkansas. Next up for the Tigers is another road test, this one at Mississippi State, which is coming off a double-overtime loss to Kentucky on Saturday. Here's everything you need to know to get set for the matchup.

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                                         TIP TIME INFORMATION

Missouri (7-1) vs. Mississippi State (6-4)

WHEN: 8 p.m.

WHERE: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, Mississippi

TV: SEC Network

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Chris Gervino)

SERIES: Mississippi State leads 9-5

KenPom Prediction: Missouri 69-67

                                       THE STARTING LINEUPS

Mississippi State Probable Starters
PlayerClassHeightPPGRPGAPG

Iverson Molinar

SO

6-3

18.4

4.1

3.9

DJ Stewart

SO

6-6

18.3

3.8

2.2

Tolu Smith

SO

6-10

12.5

8.9

1.2

Jalen Johnson

SR

6-6

8.2

2.7

0.5

Abdul Ado

SR

6-11

5.3

6.2

0.8

Mizzou Probable Starters
PlayerClassHeightPPGRPGAPG

Dru Smith

SR

6-3

11.4

3.3

2.6

Mark Smith

SR

6-5

12.5

3.3

0.9

Xavier Pinson

JR

6-3

15.0

3.8

3.3

Jeremiah Tilmon

SR

6-10

10.4

7.8

0.8

Kobe Brown

SO

6-7

6.5

6.0

0.1

                                                  BY THE NUMBERS

Statistical Matchup
MizzouCategoryMississippi State

73.0

PPG

74.0

66.6

PPG Allowed

65.9

44.2

Field Goal %

45.2

27.2

Three-Point %

37.9

+5.5

Rebound Margin

+9.4

14.6

Turnovers

13.7

65

Offensive Efficiency Rank

58

19

Defensive Efficiency Rank

104

141

Tempo

342

12

Strength of Schedule

160

                                        MIZZOU KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Don't let the offense get stagnant. The most glaring difference between Missouri's two performances last week, one a 20-point loss and the other a 13-point win, was that against Tennessee, the Tigers struggled to move the ball to create open shots. Three days later, Missouri had a much better flow to its offense, with 14 assists on 24 made baskets. Mississippi State found success against Missouri last season slowing the game down, packing the paint and making Missouri settle for three-pointers. The Tigers shot a combined 11-54 from three-point range in their two losses to the Bulldogs a season ago, and this year's squad hasn't shown a lot of reason to believe it will shoot the ball better. Missouri needs to find opportunities to push the pace, get the ball into the lane and move without the ball in order to find open shots that aren't from the perimeter.

2. Keep Mississippi State off the offensive glass. After losing the rebounding battle against both Bradley and Tennessee, Missouri dominated Arkansas on the glass, winning the margin by 15. But the Tigers' defensive rebounding remains a bit of a concern. Opponents are rebounding 28 percent of their own misses against the Tigers on the season, which ranks 176th nationally. And cleaning up on the glass happens to be Mississippi State's greatest strength. The Bulldogs rank seventh nationally in offensive rebounding rate at an astounding 39.3 percent. They rank 19th in total rebounding. Starting forwards Tolu Smith and Abdul Ado combine to grab more than 15 rebounds per game. In a game that might not be particularly high-scoring, Missouri can't afford to give Mississippi State a bunch of extra possessions. Keeping Jeremiah Tilmon on the floor and engaged like he was against Arkansas would be a big help.

3. Take better care of the ball. Aside from its three-point shooting, Missouri has battled another glaring offensive issue over the past few games: turnovers. The Tigers have turned the ball over 21 times in each of their past two games. They now rank 220th nationally in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on 20.5 percent of possessions on the season. (The team has actually been worse at forcing turnovers from opponents, where it ranks 296th.) Win the turnover battle against Mississippi State and we like Missouri's chances.

                                     POWERMIZZOU PREDICTION

Mississippi State is a tougher matchup for Missouri than it probably appears on paper. The Bulldogs excel at defending around the basket, much in the mold of Bradley and Tennessee. They rank 31st nationally in two-point defense and 18th in blocks. They also haven't been foul-prone this season — Kentucky shot just eight free throws in 50 minutes on Saturday — and getting to the line has been a big part of Missouri's success. Assuming Missouri can keep up its solid defense, this has the makings of an ugly grinder, but we think the Tigers' experience ultimately prevails.

FINAL SCORE: Missouri 65, Mississippi State 62