Turnovers, fouls causing Tigers' defensive struggles
After finishing its non-conference schedule with six consecutive wins, the Missouri basketball team hasn’t opened SEC play as well as Tiger fans might have hoped. Missouri lost to both Tennessee and South Carolina in the past week to drop to 0-2 in SEC competition. Neither loss exactly qualifies as crushing — both Tennessee and South Carolina are 3-0 in conference play, and the Volunteers are ranked No. 3 nationally while the Gamecocks have upset both Florida and Mississippi State. But the two-game skid reinforced a few of the flaws that have plagued the Tigers in their losses this season: namely, an abundance of turnovers and a lack of frontcourt depth.
Given that Missouri lost Jontay Porter to a season-ending knee injury just days before its first game, it’s not surprising that the Tigers have struggled at times on offense, especially in the post. However, in looking back at the first 14 games of this season, another striking trend has emerged: In Missouri’s losses, its defense hasn’t held up. The Tigers have surrendered an average of 81.8 points per game in their five losses this season. Opponents have scored at least 76 points in all of those games. Compare that to the team’s nine victories, in which opponents are averaging just 58.9 points per game and have never topped 64, and it’s easy to see that the defense has been the x-factor for this team.
Last week, Missouri gave up its two highest point totals of the season. Tennessee dropped 87 points on the Tigers, then South Carolina scored 85. Following the loss to the Volunteers, head coach Cuonzo Martin said his team had several defensive miscues that resulted in easy baskets at the rim. Monday, on the SEC coaches’ teleconference, he articulated a similar message, saying the team had “a couple critical breakdowns” on the defensive end against South Carolina. But Martin knows his young team isn’t going to be perfect on every defensive possession. A larger cause of the team’s woes on that end of the floor, he said, is that it is giving up too many easy scoring opportunities through turnovers and fouls.
“I think it’s a combination of live ball turnovers, you’re giving up points, and I think fouls, you’re giving up points,” Martin said.
The numbers support Martin’s assessment. In its five losses this season, Missouri has averaged 17.4 turnovers per game. The Tigers have committed nearly six fewer turnovers per contest, 11.7, in their nine wins. Sunday, 33 of South Carolina’s 85 points came as a result of Missouri’s 19 turnovers. No surprise, the team is 1-5 on the season when it commits more turnovers than its opponents.
“When you have 30-plus turnovers in two games, it’s hard, especially when you have so many new guys,” Martin said. “... Have to do a better job of taking care of the basketball so now we’re not putting so much pressure on our offense to try to score baskets.”
Missouri has also been fouling at an alarming rate. The Tigers have committed a foul on 28.5 percent of opponents’ possessions this season. That ranks No. 316 nationally — out of 353 Division I teams. In the team’s losses this year, its opponents have scored 17 points per game at the free throw line. In its wins, that number falls to just 9.9 points per game. The Tigers have been outscored by 17 points, 47 to 30, at the free throw line during their two SEC games.
Of course, one of the main contributors toward those foul totals has been sophomore center Jeremiah Tilmon, who has fouled out of each of the team’s last three games. During that span, Tilmon has played a grand total of 34 minutes while averaging 3.7 points and one rebound per game. Missouri, not coincidentally, is 1-2 in those games, with the lone win coming against Morehead State.
Tilmon’s foul trouble has been another contributing factor to Missouri’s defensive issues in its losses, and not just because his fouling has resulted in more free throws for opponents. When he’s able to stay on the court, Tilmon is far and away the team’s best post defender. Tilmon has recorded a Defensive Box Plus/Minus rating of 3.4 this season, meaning he saves 3.4 points per 100 possessions compared to a “league average player” when he’s on the floor. Perhaps more illustrative of his defensive value has been that Missouri has allowed a whopping 100 points in the paint in the past three games combined. On the year, Tilmon has fouled out of six games, and in those six games, the Tigers have surrendered an average of 29.3 points in the paint (versus 22.3 paint points per game when he commits four fouls or fewer). Missouri is 3-3 when Tilmon fouls out, with two of those wins coming against teams ranked No. 225 or lower by Ken Pomeroy.
Tilmon's foul problems have been discussed at length, and Martin was honest Monday in saying he hasn't yet found an answer that has allowed the big man to remain aggressive while not fouling. But Martin does believe he knows what has led to the defensive issues that have plagued Missouri during its past two games. Turnover and fouls, particularly on Tilmon, have given opponents too many easy scoring opportunities. Martin-coached teams have almost always depended on defense to be successful. Without Porter, this one, especially ,cannot afford to surrender so many easy points.