A wedding is truly the best venue at which to have your heart ripped out by Missouri.
Huddled around a phone, watching Missouri’s final fourth-and-11 pass fall incomplete, at a wedding between a diehard Mizzou fan and a diehard Kansas fan (the forbidden love) ... That’s a masochist’s fantasy.
Since then, I don’t even know how to process it. So this column is going to be an attempt to do just that. Let’s look at reasons to hope and reasons to worry.
Reason to Hope: While Missouri played poorly, this was also a fluky loss.
When things went bad for Mizzou, things went catastrophically bad! How often are two fumbles in a game returned for 109 total yards, resulting in 10 points? How often will Mizzou be negative-3 in turnover margin this season after not hitting that mark at all in 2018? If Kelly Bryant had thrown three interceptions, I’d be more concerned, but fumble recoveries tend to be even more of an irrational stat. Missouri had to play poorly AND be unlucky to lose this game; and the Tigers nearly pulled off the comeback.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly (you may have heard of him!), a much smarter man than me, pointed out the same.
Reason to Worry: How. Does. This. Keep. Happening?
Since 2016, Missouri is now 2-7 in games with no games the week before -- so, season openers, bye weeks and bowl games. Here’s the breakdown:
Season openers (2-2): 2016 — West Virginia, Loss; 2017 — Missouri State, Win (But, not great!); 2018 — UT-Martin, Win; 2019 — Wyoming, Loss
Bye Weeks (0-3): 2016 — Florida, Loss; 2017 — Kentucky, Loss; 2018 — South Carolina, Loss
Bowl games (0-2): 2017 — Texas, Loss; 2018 — Oklahoma State, Loss
Missouri is 17-13 in all other games since 2016. Make of that what you will.
Reason to Hope: Missouri’s passing game showed a ton of promise.
Outside of one catastrophically poor decision with an interception in the endzone, Kelly Bryant looked as poised and collected in the pocket as we’ve seen from a Missouri quarterback in recent years. Missouri has options in the receiving game — Johnathan Nance came up huge when it mattered, for instance — and the offensive line was strong in pass protection.
Reason to Worry: Um, the defense?
From 2009 through 2015, Missouri’s scoring defense ranked outside the Top 50 nationally twice (2009 and 2012). Since 2016, Missouri’s scoring defense has been outside the Top 50 each year; after Week 1 of 2019, it ranks 107th. Even if you take out the non-offensive touchdown by Wyoming, Missouri would rank 81st. Missouri hired a defensive-minded coach, but that has yet to carry over to results on that side of the ball.
Reason to Hope: Vegas still likes Missouri
Missouri opened up as 12 point favorites over West Virginia and the line quickly moved up to 14.5. That city wasn’t built on charity, folks!
Reason to Worry: Missouri was an 18-point favorite against Wyoming
Right.
Reason to Hope: Surely there are other recent examples of a bad Week 1 loss that turned into a successful season!
Oh yeah, of course! Washington State lost to Portland State to start the 2015 season and the Cougars finished 9-4. I think most Missouri fans would take a 9-4 record this season.
Reason to Worry: But what about other recent examples of a bad Week 1 loss?
Why do I do this to myself? Since 2014, there have been 19 Week 1 games in which a Power 5 team lost to a non-Power 5 opponent. Those Power 5 teams finished, on average, 4-8. Seven of the 19 made bowl games; Washington State had the most wins (nine) and the second-most wins (eight, in 2016 after a loss to Eastern Washington). That’s it.
Am I any closer to processing this loss after this back-and-forth exercise? No. I’m just as confused as I was on Saturday night, watching as Missouri’s manic comeback fell short in a game that never should have been that close (for either team, at various stages of the 60 minutes).
Much like Odom admitted to reporters on Tuesday, I have no idea what to expect from Missouri against West Virginia. Every ounce of me wants to lean into the stats that prove the loss to Wyoming was a perfect storm of bad play and flukiness. But just as many stats over the last three-plus seasons show games like that tend to be the trend, and not an aberration.
There’s still 11 games for Missouri to break that cycle.
