Here’s a scouting report, some notes, matchups to watch and what I think will lead to a Tiger win today as No. 20 Missouri (16-4, 5-2) takes on No. 14 Mississippi State (16-5, 4-4) in the Tigers’ second of four consecutive ranked matchups at noon today (SEC Network).
Scouting Report
The Bulldogs enter today’s matchup having lost four of their past six matchups, including an 88-84 loss to No. 4 Alabama on Wednesday.
Josh Hubbard attempted to lead a second-half comeback for the Bulldogs with a career-high 38 points as the sophomore hit 14-of-28 shots, including six 3-pointers. Mississippi State tied the game and took the lead with 10:14 left, then traded the lead with the Crimson Tide before Alabama took the lead for good 2:30 left and held on the rest of the way.
Mississippi State entered SEC play with a 12-1 record, having beat Memphis and Pitt in ranked non-conference games.
The Bulldogs started the SEC schedule with big wins against South Carolina (85-50) and Vanderbilt (76-64), but have since lost to Kentucky (95-90), Auburn (88-66) Tennessee (68-56) and Alabama, while beating Ole Miss (84-81 in OT) and South Carolina (65-60 in OT).
The Bulldogs are more offensively-minded than Tiger fans might initially think about Mississippi State, averaging 80.8 points per game, while allowing 70.4.
In conference play, those numbers are 75.75 points scored and 74.25 allowed per game.
The Bulldogs shot 46 percent from the field, 32.1 percent from 3 and 69.6 percent from the free-throw line, while averaging just 13.7 free throw attempts per game.
Mississippi State allows opponents to shoot 42.4/35.2/68.6.
The Bulldogs force 14.1 turnovers per game, including 9.7 steals, while totaling 16.7 points off turnovers per game. They commit just 10.4 turnovers per game.
Hubbard (5-foot-11, 190 pounds) leads the team at 17.3 points per game to go with 3.0 assists per contest.
Redshirt junior forward KeShawn Murphy (6-10, 230) is next with 10.8 points per game, while grabbing a team-high 7.1 rebounds per contest and blocking more than a shot per game, while poking away 1.0 steals per game. Murphy started the first three games of the season, while playing off the bench the rest of the 21 matchups this season.
Senior guard Claudell Harris (6-4, 200) adds 10.6 points and 3.1 rebounds per game, while junior guard Riley Kugel (6-5, 210) scores 10.2 points per game, mostly off the bench.
Senior forward RJ Melendez (6-7, 210), who Mizzou fans might remember from his time at Illinois, and graduate forward Cameron Matthews (6-7, 235) round out the players who average more than 20 minutes per game. Matthews pulls down 7.0 rebounds per contest.
Hubbard is the lone player to start every game, while Mathews and sophomore center Michael Nwoko (6-10, 245) have both started 19-of-21. Melendez has started 16-of-21, Harris has started 14-of-21 and four players have started at least three games.
Mississippi State is No. 24 in the NET rankings, while Missouri is No. 27.
The Bulldogs lead the all-time series 14-6, including winning eight of the past nine games. The Tigers’ lone win in the past five years came 66-64 on Feb. 21, 2023 in Columbia.
The Tigers have won just once in Starkville, a 78-36 win on Feb. 13, 2013.
Mizzou notes: Caleb Grill ranks first in the country in 3-point percentage at 48.3 percent … Mizzou has led for all 20 minutes in the second half of all five of its SEC wins so far … Mizzou is 5-2 in SEC play for the first time in program history … Mark Mitchell is 39 points shy of reaching 1,000 for his career … Dennis Gates enters the matchup with 99 career wins, 50 at Cleveland State and 49 at Missouri.
Matchups
Josh Hubbard vs. Mizzou’s defensive strategy
The Tigers have faced some top-tier guards recently and they’ve got another one with Hubbard. He makes the Mississippi State offense go.
More than half of his shot attempts come from beyond the 3-point line and he shoots just 39.3 percent from the field. I don’t know if the strategy will just be to try to have Ant Robinson lock him up individually or try to funnel him into the paint where he’ll have to go against bigger bodies, but the Tigers have done very well against a string of talented guards and if they can do the same with Hubbard, that’s a great first step to a victory.
Mizzou vs. the crowd
Obviously, the Tigers had one incredible road game against Florida and have done fine in most other road performances. But they still have a 1-4 record away from Mizzou Arena.
From the outside, it looks like the Tigers have just missed that little extra boost they get from playing in front of the home crowd, outside of the Florida game where they came out fast and quieted the crowd immediately.
There’s a good chance this matchup will be another rock fight, Chris Jans-coached teams are always talented on the defensive end and the Bulldogs are again this year, but if Missouri is able to quiet the crowd early and keep them out of it as much as possible, that should go a long way to getting a second road win this season.
What I'm looking for
Ball control is going to be a major factor in this game. Both teams are very good at forcing turnovers and using them to create easy opportunities on offense.
Mizzou has done a good job of staying below 15 turnovers per game since the matchup with Auburn, right up until a 16-turnover performance against Ole Miss.
If Mizzou gives up 18 points off turnovers like it did against the Rebels, you’re looking at a recipe for another road loss.
But if the Tigers can control the ball and say in single digits, like they did against Florida, then I think this will be another game at the top of the Tigers’ resume come Selection Sunday.
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