We’ve reached the No. 7-seed Missouri Tigers’ (21-10, 10-8 SEC) first game in the SEC Tournament as they take on the No. 10-seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-11, 8-10) at 6 p.m. tonight in the second round.
Tonight’s winner will move on to face No. 2 Florida at 6 p.m. tomorrow.
Here’s a scouting report, some Mizzou notes, matchups to watch and what I think will lead to a Tiger win.
Scouting Report
The Bulldogs enter today’s matchup coming off a 91-62 win against LSU in the tournament’s first round.
Like Missouri, Mississippi State lost four of its final regular-season games to come into the SEC Tournament on a cold spell.
The teams matchup up just once this season on Feb. 1 when Missouri blitzed the Bulldogs 88-61 on Mississippi State’s home court.
The Bulldogs won their first-round game on the strength of 15 3-pointers, led by Josh Hubbard with a 6-for-12 day from deep to lead a 26-point performance.
He was the only Mississippi State player to score in double figures, but KeShawn Murphy and Shawn Jones both had nine points and at least five rebounds, Riley Kugel, Michael Nwoko and Claudell Harris all had eight points and at least four rebounds and RJ Melendez and Martavious Russell both had seven points as 10 Bulldogs scored and had at least four points.
The Bulldogs shot 8-of-13 (61.5 percent) from 3 in the second half, helping turn what was a 26-20 lead with 7:53 left in the first half into a 44-24 lead at halftime and eventually a 29-point win.
Mississippi State averages 80.0 points per game and 73.8 allowed per contest. Down the stretch (their past six games) the Bulldogs average 84.33 scored and 85.83 allowed.
The Bulldogs shot 45.4 percent from the field, 31.8 percent from 3 (on 8.5 made 3-pointers per game) and 70 percent from the free-throw line (with an average of 13.9 free throws made per game). They allow opponents to shoot 43.8 percent overall, 36.2 percent on 9.3 made 3s per game and 68.9 percent at the free-throw line, while allowing a matching 13.9 makes from the stripe per game.
Hubbard (a 5-foot-11, 190-pound sophomore guard) leads the Bulldogs with 18.5 points per game, while dishing out 3.28 assists per game.
Murphy (a 6-10, 230-pound junior forward) is next at 11.6 points per game to go with a team-high 7.4 rebounds per contest.
Harris adds 9.8 points, Kugel scores 9.4, Melendez contributes 8.8 and graduate forward Cameron Matthews (6-7, 235) records 7.3 points, 6.6 rebounds and a team-high 3.59 assists per game.
The Bulldogs usually start Hubbard, Melendez, Matthews and Nwoko, then either Harris or Kugel for the fifth spot in the opening five. The rest of the regular rotation is Murphy, Jones and freshman guard Dellquan Warren (6-2, 180).
The Tigers allowed Hubbard to score 24 points in the team’s first matchup this year and Murphy added 16, but no other Bulldog scored more than six.
With the earlier win this year, the Tigers cut the Bulldogs’ all-time series lead to 14-7.
Mizzou Notes
- SEC sixth-man of the year Caleb Grill leads the country with an average of 14.2 points scored off the bench per game.
- Mizzou ranks eighth in the country at 84.5 points scored per game, the team’s fourth-best mark in program history.
- All-SEC defensive team member Anthony Robinson is fourth in Mizzou history with 99 steals through his sophomore season.
- Mizzou is 6-2 all time as the higher seed in SEC Tournament play.
- This will be the Tigers’ first matchup with the Bulldogs in the SEC Tournament.
Matchups
Mississippi State’s Nos. 3-6 players vs. Mizzou’s defense
Hubbard is going to do what he’s going to do. The Tigers allowed him to get his points in the last matchup, but dominated because they kept the Bulldogs from having success spreading the offense around.
If Mississippi State is able to put up a similar offensive game to what it did against LSU, the Tigers will be in trouble. But if Missouri can make the Bulldogs a one- or two-man show with Hubbard and Murphy, like it did in the first matchup this year, I think the Tigers will be well set.
Outside shooting
We’ve talked so much about the Tigers’ interior defense the past few weeks because it has been such a major issue.
But against Kentucky, Missouri showed some marked improvement. But that came with a decline in defense around the 3-point line.
Mississippi State hit 15 3-pointers Wednesday, the Tigers are going to have to keep them uncomfortable on the outside, which is what Missouri had done so well for much of the SEC regular-season schedule.
I’m interested to see how Mississippi State gameplans for this matchup. Do the Bulldogs stick with what they’re good at and let this game turn into a matchup of teams gunning for double-digit 3-point totals? Or do they, like Oklahoma, attack the inside repeatedly early on to try to pull the Tiger defense down to the basket?
What I'm looking for
Tigers in transition
Missouri dominated points off turnovers for so much of the regular season, but have lost the battle in each of the four losses the Tigers suffered down the stretch.
They held a 17-14 advantage in points off turnovers last time these teams matched up, so that wasn’t the major difference, but I think getting back to forcing turnovers and playing a little more chaos basketball in transition will be a great way for the Tigers to get back on track in tournament time.
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