When the Tigers of LSU (3-2) come to Columbia to face the Tigers of Missouri (5-0) this Saturday, many will expect a high-scoring game.
LSU, led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, has the nation's sixth-ranked offense averaging 530 yards per game and the seventh-ranked scoring offense at 44 points per game. These numbers rival those of the 2019 Joe Burrow-led team, which was one of the best, if not, the best in college football history.
Mizzou enters with its best offense since maybe the 2013 James Franklin-era offense that went to its first Southeastern Conference title game.
Missouri has the 42nd-best offense averaging 433.8 yards per game and the 51st-ranked offense at 32 points per game.
However, while scoring points is the name of the game there will be some other things that come into play that will likely have a significant impact on the game.
Here are three things that may determine the winner of Saturday's game.
Red zone play for both teams
Speaking of scoring, let's get probably the most important factor on this list out of the way.
Both teams anre excellent in the red zone offensively with Mizzou having the 10th-best red zone conversion rate in the country by going 20-of-21 (95%) with 14 touchdowns and six field goals.
LSU isn't too far behind, T-42nd by going 24-of-27 (88%) with 20 touchdowns and four field goals.
"Yeah, I mean, in close games, it's always going to come down to red zone scoring, like who's winning the four-point play battle," Missouri head coach Eli Drinkwitz asked rhetorically during Media Day on Tuesday. "Whichever side has been able to get touchdowns and force the other into field goals is probably the separator in this game. I know you're not going to be able to settle for field goals very much against LSU, being as explosive as it is offensively."
Against Vandy in Week 5, Mizzou went 5-of-5 in the red zone with only its first red zone drive being a field goal. Three were touchdown passes by Brady Cook and a one-yard rushing touchdown by running back Cody Schrader.
All five of LSU's red zone drives in its 55-49 loss to Ole Miss last week were touchdowns, two of them through the air and three on the ground.
So, we know both teams can put up points, but like Drinkwitz said, who can force the other team to settle for more field goals in the red zone?
Entering last week, Mizzou opponents were 12-of-12 in the red zone with eight touchdowns. In the first quarter, Ken Seals rushed for a six-yard touchdown and extended the streak to 13-of-13 with nine touchdowns. It wasn’t until cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine got a third-quarter interception that the team would get its first red zone stop of the season.
Mizzou is T-110th in red zone defense with opponents having a 92% conversion rate.
However, LSU is worse.
The Bayou Bengals are T-120th in the category having allowed 19-of-20 (95%) conversions with 13 touchdowns.
Against Ole Miss, LSU allowed the Rebels to convert all six of its red zone drives with three passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and a field goal.
There will be loads of pressure on both teams' offense and defense to either put up touchdowns or limit the other team to no more than field goals.
But honestly, the best red zone defense for these two teams will simply be not letting the other team get into the red zone.
Turnover battle
Missouri is third in the nation with the fewest turnovers with just three, and Cook just broke the SEC record for the most passing attempts without an interception last week, passing Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson's record of 325 attempts.
LSU is T-13th with just four turnovers and its quarterback has only thrown two interceptions.
So, both teams are safe with the ball but what about taking it away?
LSU is T-98th in takeaways with five and Mizzou is T-113th with four.
"Yeah, I think the team that makes the fewest mistakes is going to win," Drinkwitz said during the SEC teleconference on Wednesday. "So, I think both sides of the ball have got to value the ball. Both sides of the ball, got to try to get takeaways."
LSU has two games forcing at least two turnovers while Mizzou has just one such game.
However, Missouri has forced at least one turnover in the last three games.
Missouri has won the turnover battle twice this season versus Kansas State and Memphis, lost it against South Dakota and tied twice versus Middle Tennessee and Vandy.
LSU has won also won the turnover battle twice, lost it twice and tied once.
Third downs
It's hard to be one of the best offenses in the nation without third-down success, and that's a down LSU is really comfortable with.
The Bayou Bengals are third in the FBS in third-down offense, having converted 34-of-59 (57%) this season.
"I think one of the keys to their success (is) they're so good on third downs. They are in a lot of third and mediums," Drinkwitz said. "The quarterback's ability to pull the ball down and scramble for positive yardage, you can tell that they made it an emphasis on finding his check-downs. He's doing a really good job of finding the back out of the backfield late to keep him from having to scramble as much. They can stretch it vertically downfield with the play-action and dropback game. So, they really have all the components there."
However, LSU is 117th in third-down defense having allowed 32 conversions on 68 attempts (47%).
In Week 5, LSU was 5-of-10 offensively but allowed Ole Miss to convert on 9-of-16 its attempts.
Missouri has had its struggles on both sides of the ball on third down this season as well.
In Weeks 3 and 4, Mizzou was 3-of-21 on the down offensively and had a three-game stretch from Weeks 2-4 when it allowed opponents to convert 24-of-53 (45%) attempts.
It would bounce back last week, converting 6-of-12 versus Vandy and holding the Commodores to 2-of-10 on the down defensively.
For the season, Mizzou is 80th offensively on third-down offense at 39% and 57th defensively at 37%.
If Missouri is going to have a chance at winning this game it’ll have to bring its best on third downs, in the red zone and by stealing some possessions with some takeaways.
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