Blowin' Smoke Presented by Weston Tobacco

What's more fun than us giving you a chance to mock us every single week? In our new feature, Blowin' Smoke presented by Weston Tobacco, we will do that each and every Thursday. Gabe DeArmond and Mitchell Forde will make five predictions almost sure to go wrong every week in this space. These will range from big games to big picture predictions with a bit of the comedic and absurd mixed in most weeks as well.

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Mitchell: I have to assume the winner of the Big 12 is pretty much guaranteed a spot unless they have two losses. So I'll pick Oklahoma, even though that's boring. The final spot is a bit more interesting. My first instinct is to slot an SEC team in there, and if there is another SEC team besides the champion with one or fewer losses, I think that becomes an easy pick. But with the league playing a 10-game, conference-only schedule, I think that's unlikely. I also don't see any ACC teams finishing with just one loss, unless Notre Dame can split its (likely) two games with Clemson, in which case they would deserve a shot. That really opens things up for a Big 12 team like Texas or Oklahoma State. If they can just split their (likely) two games against Oklahoma and not lose another, they'd probably be in. Even there, though, I'd be surprised if any team other than the league champ ends up with fewer than two losses. So, in the end, I guess I take Georgia, although I'd be tempted to go for the AAC champ...

Gabe: Assuming we get to the playoff, yeah, I think Oklahoma will have a spot. You don't have to worry about the Big Ten or PAC 12 champ so now we're talking about the second place team from a Power Five league or Cincinnati. You've got to think it's the SEC runner up in that case. But the thing is, Georgia is going to play Alabama, Auburn and Florida in the regular season. I think they're going to lose at least one of those, if not two. I think Florida has an excellent chance to win the East. But if Florida loses to Georgia or LSU in the regular season and then loses the league title game, they've got two losses. So now we're down to Notre Dame, Texas and Oklahoma State. I'll take the winner of the OSU/Texas game, which then beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Clemson is the one seed, Bama the two, OSU/Texas the three and Oklahoma the four.

Gabe: It is, but I don't think this is a great year for a G5 team. Memphis lost its best player to opt out and has a new coach. UCF had TEN guys opt out yesterday. Cincinnati is the best G5 team...and the best games on the schedule for the Bearcats are UCF and Memphis. Even if they go 11-0, that's not a better resume than even a 9-2 Florida or Georgia or a 10-1 Oklahoma State or Texas. If it's ever going to happen this is the year, but the strength of schedule probably actually hurts the G5 teams more than normal because you don't even have something like an out of conference game against a big time Power Five team to point to.

Mitchell: Yes, it is, for the reasons I outlined above. I think the winner of each of the three Power Five leagues that are playing this season are virtually ensured a Playoff bid. But I also don't foresee any other teams in those leagues winding up with fewer than two losses, because the second-best ACC team will have to play Clemson twice and the second-best Big 12 team will have to play Oklahoma twice (and that's a fairly deep league). There's a chance that Georgia could split its two games with 'Bama or Auburn could win every game except 'Bama, but the schedules in the SEC this year are so ridiculous, I'll be shocked if every team doesn't drop one game somewhere. And if you're left with a bunch of two-loss Power Five teams against an unbeaten UCF or Cincinnati, why not give them a shot? Everything about this season has to be taken with a grain of salt anyway, and it would be a fun experiment to see if they could actually hang in there against an Alabama or Clemson (probably not, but it would be far from the first Playoff game to end in a rout). I think it would have to be an AAC team, sorry Conference USA and Sun Belt, and they'd have to be undefeated, but if that happens, I say why not.

Mitchell: Memphis seems to be the more talented team, as the line suggests. But they have a new coach/play-caller and just lost their best skill position player a few days before the season opener. I think they still win but Arkansas State covers.

Gabe: Memphis. I have no reason for it.

Mitchell: I don't know much about either team. But I know tackling is always a concern in the first game of the season and Navy will make you do a lot of it. Give me the Midshipmen.

Gabe: If you're ever going to play Navy, you want to play them in week one when you've theoretically had extra time to prepare for them. Navy's at home, but road games aren't nearly as big a deal with no fans. So I'm going with the Cougars even though I couldn't name a single player on either team.

Gabe: You have to go Bama as the likely bet. I just think they're head and shoulders above everyone else. For value, I'm waffling between Tennessee and Kentucky. I don't think either one is likely to win it, but UGA has a tough schedule and if one of those teams could beat Florida, you never know. If I'm just throwing down ten bucks that I don't think I'm getting back, give me Kentucky because I'd rather have a chance to turn that ten into 1000 than 500.

Mitchell: If I'm just trying to win money, it's clearly Alabama. Even though the odds aren't great, I feel much better about them winning the league than anyone else. I think they can lose a game during the regular season and still make the championship. For a value play, give me Florida. I think they have far and away the easiest schedule in the SEC East, which means they have the easiest schedule in the league. If they can just break through and beat Georgia, they should be in the title game. Then maybe Alabama's offensive line comes down with COVID and they pull off an upset. I know picking the fourth-favorite team might not seem like a sexy value play, but let's be real, anyone below Auburn on that list has zero chance of winning the league.