We’re down to the penultimate regular-season game day and I’ve started prepping for Missouri’s matchup with Mississippi State. So it felt like a good time for some predictions and keys to the game.
Overall
Prediction: Mizzou finally just looks good through a game.
Key: There isn’t a unit on either side of Mississippi State’s team that worries me much. No unit on the defense is good, the offensive line has struggled to keep Michael Van Buren clean and Van Buren makes mistakes when he’s under pressure. Kevin Coleman is a solid receiver and might come in with extra motivation coming out of St. Louis the same year as Luther Burden, but there’s nothing about this game that should look difficult for Missouri.
Offense
Prediction: The Tigers rush for more than 250 yards as a team.
Key: Abuse Mississippi State’s run defense. No unit on the Bulldog defense is very good, but the run defense is among the worst in the country. With how good Nate Noel looked last week, I’d be calling his number start to finish along with Jamal Roberts and Kewan Lacy spelling him at points. Get the run game going, take pressure off of Brady Cook, open up the passing for later and run straight through a defense that is generously described as porous.
Defense
Prediction: Mississippi State will put up more points than feels good.
Key: Don’t give up big plays again. The game plan will certainly look different than it did last week, but if Mizzou gives up that level of big plays again, no matter who the Tigers are lined up against, it will be a problem. Missouri was among the best in the country at not giving up plays longer than 20 yards going into last week. If the Tigers get back to that, then the Bulldogs will still put up some points, but not enough for this to look like a competitive game past the midpoint of the third quarter. It’s unlikely the Tigers will keep the Bulldogs under 20, they scored 25 against Arkansas, 24 against Texas A&M, 31 against Georgia and 28 against Florida. The offense can find the end zone. But not enough to be a problem because of how bad the Mississippi State defense has been.
Score
I picked 31-21 Tigers in my emails with Jason Stamm for their version of Know your Foe, and I'm fine with sticking with that.
Head over to the story thread to discuss my predictions or the pregame thread to join the conversation about the game. Or you can go over to the Tiger Walk to talk about so much more.