Published Sep 17, 2016
Last Looks: Mizzou vs Georgia
Gabe DeArmond
Publisher

THE VITALS

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KICKOFF: 6:30 p.m. Central

SITE: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium (71,168)

TV: SEC Network (Brent Musberger, Jesse Palmer, Kaylee Hartung)

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network/Sirius 145/XM 192 (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

SERIES: UGA leads 4-1 (last meeting Oct. 17, 2015)

THE MATCHUPS

When Missouri runs the ball: The Tigers got better running the ball in week two even without their starting back. Ish Witter and Damarea Crockett combined for 129 yards and averaged more than five per carry. Georgia allowed North Carolina to go for 8.3 yards a carry in week one. The Bulldogs have a very young defensive line with plenty of potential, but little experience. Missouri still has to prove it can run the ball well against a Power Five defense, though, because it really didn't in week one against West Virginia. Could Marvin Zanders be a bit of a weapon in this game? EDGE: EVEN

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When Missouri throws the ball: Drew Lock put together one of the best games in Missouri history and Ray Wingo and Johnathon Johnson both topped 100 yards a week ago. But it was Eastern Michigan. UGA coach Kirby Smart said Lock throws one of the best deep balls he has ever seen and the Bulldogs looked vulnerable to the deep ball against North Carolina. Mizzou's passing game isn't proven yet, but it is much improved. EDGE: MIZZOU

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When UGA runs the ball: The Bulldogs didn't have much success against Nicholls, largely due to the ineffectiveness of the offensive line. But Nick Chubb went for 200-plus against North Carolina in week one and Sony Michel is expected to be a bigger part of the game plan this week. The Tigers really struggled against the run in week one and allowed more than you would like against Eastern Michigan on the ground as well. This is where the game is decided. If Chubb and Michel are running wild, Missouri can't win. EDGE: UGA

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When UGA throws the ball: Georgia is completing 60% of its passes and averaging 191 yards through the air in the first two weeks. The Bulldogs are mostly going with true freshman Jacob Eason in the passing game. He has attempted 32 passes while Greyson Lambert has thrown only 11. There is little doubt Eason has tons of talent, but he's also a true freshman. Missouri's pass defense was iffy last week, but the Tigers also had a four-touchdown or more lead most of the second half. Aarion Penton is expected to be good to go for this one. Missouri's so-far-nonexistent pass rush had better be as well (calling on you, Charles Harris). The goal for the Tigers is to limit the ground game and force Eason and Lambert to beat them. EDGE: EVEN

Special Teams: Mizzou unleashed Johnathon Johnson as a punt return weapon last week. Tucker McCann puts the kickoff in the end zone about 100% of the time and Corey Fatony is one of the better punters around. Everything about the Missouri special teams has been positive...except the Tigers have no idea if they can make an extra point, much less a field goal. They missed two last week. Isaiah McKenzie and Reggie Davis are dangerous return men for the Bulldogs, but they have a freshman punter and force touchbacks less than half the time. William Ham has made all of his PATs but only three of five field goals. If this game comes down to a kick, it could be a bit of an adventure. EDGE: MIZZOU

Intangibles: Missouri is at home and that's a plus. Georgia is coming off a scare against Nicholls. It's either the best thing or the worst thing that could have happened for Missouri. Did last week wake the Bulldogs up? Certainly Missouri will get a better effort out of UGA than it showed a week ago, but how much better? And is Missouri's young team amped up for this one or nervous? No way to know until kickoff. EDGE: EVEN

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Coaching: These coaches have followed incredibly similar career paths. They played defense in college, went on to cut their teeth as position coaches and then defensive coordinators and were hired three days apart as the head coaches at their respective alma maters in December. Both have coached two games. Both have overseen one very impressive game and one clunker. Other than the fact one yells a lot more, they're virtually indistinguishable at this point. EDGE: EVEN

THE KEYS

1. Contain the running game. Missouri doesn't have to shut it down, but the Tigers can't let Georgia run all over the field. The UGA running game has proven it can beat teams. The passing game might be able to, but hasn't proven it. Missouri needs to do everything it can to keep Chubb under about 120 yards and then take its chances with Eason. If Eason and the UGA receivers beat you, so be it, tip your cap and move on.

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2. Limit the mistakes. The last time Georgia came to Columbia, the Bulldogs won 34-0 and didn't have to do much to cruise. The Tigers turned the ball over five times, including four interceptions.

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3. Break three big plays. Missouri hit some home runs against Eastern Michigan last week. They won't have as many chances this week, but they should have a few. The Tiger offense hasn't really proven it can move methodically up and down the field against a legitimate defense. Drew Lock needs to take some shots and his receivers need to make them pay off. Three plays of 30 yards or more seems like a good benchmark.

THE PREDICTION

At this point, we don't know what either team is. Are the Bulldogs the team that beat nationally ranked North Carolina? Or are they the one that had to survive against 55-point underdog Nicholls? Are the Tigers the group that rolled up and down the field against overmatched Eastern Michigan or the one that looked overmatched itself against West Virginia? Both teams have shown some strengths and weaknesses through two weeks. We expect this one to be a tight game that anybody could win with six minutes to play. Complete toss up and a complete guess, we go with Georgia winning 23-21.

Previous Predictions

WVU 27 Mizzou 17

Mizzou 38 E. Michigan 10