Liberty Bowl: Keys & Predictions

MEMPHIS--Missouri and Oklahoma State kick off in the Liberty Bowl at 2:45 this afternoon. We finish up our week of previews with three keys and our predictions.

BREAKING DOWN THE MATCHUPS: When Mizzou throws | When OSU throws

When Mizzou runs | When OSU runs | Special Teams/Intangibles

1. Get the Cowboy offense off schedule. There has been no more mercurial team than Oklahoma State this season. They put 45 on West Virginia, 47 on Oklahoma and 38 on Texas. But they were also held to 12 by Kansas State and 17 by Texas Tech. When asked what the difference between the good Cowboys and the bad ones was, Barry Odom said when the offense got in a rhythm, they could beat anybody. Missouri needs to prevent that rhythm. Apply some pressure, force some third downs, make the Cowboys uncomfortable. If you let Mike Gundy get in a groove calling plays, he's still one of the top offensive minds in the country.

2. Six at a time. There are going to be some points in this game. When Mizzou gets in the red zone, it needs to finish those drives off with touchdowns. Missouri scored 50 of 57 times it was in the red zone, which was 36th in the country. But 14 of those scores were field goals. The Tigers' red zone touchdown percentage was only 57th. So Missouri settled for field goals of 40 yards or less more than most teams. The Tigers might be able to win this game three points at a time...but it seems unlikely. Oklahoma State is 96th in the country in scoring defense and 99th in total defense. There should be chances for the Tigers to score.

3. Protect Drew Lock. The Cowboys averaged 3.25 sacks per game, which ranks sixth in the country. In Oklahoma State's wins, it averaged four sacks a game. In its six losses, it was just 2.5 per game. The Cowboys are going to put some pressure on Missouri, but they've got to minimize the hits on Lock. The Tigers' front five was good at that this season, giving up the ninth fewest sacks in the country. And despite all the pressure it generates up front, Oklahoma State still can't stop the pass. The Cowboys are 108th in the country in pass defense. They give up 7.5 yards per attempt and have just five interceptions against 24 touchdowns. If he has time, Lock will have open receivers. If that's the case, Missouri should put up plenty of points.

Mitchell Forde: Missouri 38, Oklahoma State 30

Oklahoma State should be able to move the ball and score some points against Missouri, but assuming the Tigers don't sleepwalk through this one, I don't think the Cowboy defense is good enough to stop Drew Lock and company in Lock's last college game. Lock throws three touchdowns and leaves Missouri a winner.

Gabe DeArmond: Missouri 45, Oklahoma State 34

Offense is the strength of both teams and pass defense is the weakness. Both quarterbacks will be able to put up some numbers. But over the course of the year, Oklahoma State has had more off days than Missouri on offense (and the Tigers have played better defenses). The balance of the Missouri attack will win this one. Lock throws for three touchdowns and Missouri runs for three more to earn win number nine.