HOUSTON--Prior to every Mizzou game, we break down the numbers, look at the matchups and offer a prediction. Here's our look at the Texas Bowl.
                       INSIDE THE MATCHUPS
WHEN MISSOURI RUNS THE BALL: The Tigers should get the services of Damarea Crockett back, but he's almost certainly going to serve as the third back. This game will belong to Larry Rountree III and Ish Witter as the six-game winning streak did. Mizzou ran for nearly 200 yards per game and averaged 5.3 per carry. But Texas held opponents to less than 150 a game and 3.66 carry. Strength against strength here. The Tigers run game has been good. The Longhorns run defense has been elite.
EDGE: TEXAS
WHEN MISSOURI THROWS THE BALL: Drew Lock hopes to carry his second half of the season performance over to the bowl game. Lock and his receivers were as hot as any group in the country for the last six weeks. The Texas defense is allowing just a 57.8% completion rate and has nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns. Considering some of the offenses the Longhorns play in the Big 12, that's impressive. But Texas will be missing some talent here and Lock should have some opportunities. EDGE: MISSOURI
WHEN TEXAS RUNS THE BALL: Texas averages just 141.8 yards per game and 3.66 per carry. The Longhorns have not a single player who had 400 rushing yards and no individual averaged five yards per carry. Missouri's run defense got better throughout the season, especially once A.J. Logan returned. Terez Hall, Cale Garrett and Brandon Lee will be key to this game. If they're secure in tackling, the Horns may not have much room to roam.
EDGE: MISSOURI
WHEN TEXAS THROWS THE BALL: The biggest issue for the Horns here is probably that the offensive line--which wasn't great to start with--is missing starting left tackle Connor Williams, who is skipping the bowl game. A Missouri defense that has found more creative ways to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks could rack up some tackles for loss in this one. When they do throw the ball, Texas is decent, but not great (and again, adjust for Big 12 inflation on some of the numbers). Plus wide receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey is suspended. All that said, Missouri's pass defense has hardly been awe-inspiring. The most recent memory is Arkansas receivers streaking by the Tigers all day long in Fayetteville.
EDGE: EVEN
SPECIAL TEAMS: There aren't a lot of games where Mizzou is at a deficit at punter, but this is one. Texas' Michael Dickson is the best in the country and is entering the NFL Draft early. The return games are fairly even. The Longhorns have made just ten of their 18 field goal attempts so Tucker McCann gives the Tigers a leg up here.
EDGE: EVEN
COACHING: Barry Odom did one of the best coaching jobs in the country over the second half of the season. People will instinctually give this to Tom Herman, but in three seasons, his record has gotten worse every year (13-1, 9-3 at Houston, 6-6 at Texas).
EDGE: EVEN
THE BOTTOM LINE: Bowl games are about one thing: Who wants to be there? Missouri has continually talked about chasing history and winning its final seven games. Texas has seven players who won't play in the game (an injury, three suspensions, three don't cares). On the surface, this game means a lot more to Mizzou.
PLAYER OF THE GAME: Drew Lock throws for three touchdowns. Then in the days after the game he tells Mizzou fans he's coming back next year.
THE PICK: Missouri 37, Texas 20
