Mizzou football midseason report

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Missouri’s second idle weekend of 2020 comes at the midpoint of a season unlike any in college football history. Eli Drinkwitz’s inaugural year has seen spring practices cut short, the start of the season delayed and the original schedule scrapped in favor of a 10-game, all-SEC slate as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In five weeks, the Tigers have had one game moved due to a hurricane and two others rescheduled because of virus outbreaks among opposing teams. Four of the team’s first five opponents have been ranked in the top 25 at the time of the game, and Missouri has been underdogs in all five matchups so far.

Through it all, the Tigers sit 2-3, which, all things considered, has to exceed all but the most optimistic preseason expectations. Now, we’ll use the bye week both to look back at the good and bad aspects of the first half of the season, as well as what we know and what we don’t about the final five games.

Record: 2-3

Record ATS: 3-2

Total offense: 384.2 yards per game (No. 65 nationally)

Rushing offense: 127 yards per game (75)

Passing offense: 257.2 yards per game (36)

Scoring offense: 22.6 points per game (81)

Total defense: 394.8 yards per game (52)

Rushing defense: 131.2 yards per game (40)

Passing defense: 263.6 yards per game (73)

Scoring defense: 33.0 points per game (69)

-- Two upset victories: How difficult has Missouri’s schedule been so far this season? Only once have the Tigers been even a single-digit underdog. To come out of such a challenging stretch 2-3 is impressive, especially with a first-year head coach and redshirt freshman quarterback, who didn’t have much of an offseason to work together. The 45-41 upset of defending national champion LSU — Missouri’s first win over a two-touchdown favorite since at least 1997 — was the headliner. But dominating Kentucky the following game for the program’s first win over the Wildcats since 2014 might have been even more impressive, because it showed the LSU upset was no fluke (as has been the case for Mississippi State). Former head coach Barry Odom won just two games as an underdog and beat only one ranked team during his entire tenure. Drinkwitz has now matched both of those numbers through half of one season.

-- Bazelak’s emergence: Drinkwitz declined to name a starting quarterback throughout fall camp, but most of the offseason buzz centered around Shawn Robinson, who sat out all of last season after transferring to Missouri from TCU. Robinson, indeed, started the season-opener against Alabama and played pretty well, then started again at Tennessee. Against the Vols, he struggled mightily. Connor Bazelak sparked the offense to life when he entered the game in the second quarter, played the rest of the afternoon and hasn’t given up the starting job since. Bazelak came back to earth a little bit against Florida, but for the most part, he’s played brilliantly. His 400-yard, four-touchdown performance against LSU earned him SEC offensive player of the week honors. He has completed 69.1 percent of his passes, third-best in the SEC, and thrown just one interception. And he’s only played three full college games, start to finish. He should only get better with experience, and given that this season doesn’t count against him from an eligibility perspective, he could get as many as 20 starts under his belt before becoming a sophomore. In today’s football, it’s nearly impossible to win without a dynamic quarterback, and so far, Bazelak looks the part.

-- Jeffcoat’s return: As has been the case each of the past few seasons, the big question facing Missouri’s defense coming into the season was who would rush the passer for the Tigers. The answer came in the unlikely form of redshirt sophomore Trajan Jeffcoat, who as of three months ago wasn’t even on the team’s roster. Jeffcoat signed with Missouri in the 2018 class and impressed the coaching staff enough that he played in every game as a true freshman, but he got hurt during preseason camp a year ago, and before he could return to the field, he had been dismissed from the team. His return has proven welcome not only in the locker room — defensive coordinator Ryan Walters said some of Jeffcoat’s teammates literally cried tears of joy — but on the field. Jeffcoat leads Missouri with three sacks and 16 quarterback pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. He and fellow edge rusher Tre Williams aren’t going to be confused with Markus Golden and Shane Ray, by any means, but they’ve given Missouri its most consistent pass-rushing duo since at least 2017.

-- Pass defense: After leaping into the top 10 nationally a season ago, Missouri’s pass defense has regressed. The Tigers currently rank No. 73 nationally and eighth in the SEC against the pass. That would be worse if not for Kentucky’s incompetence through the air — the Wildcats threw for just 50 yards two weeks ago. Excluding that performance, Missouri has allowed an average of 317 passing yards per game, which would rank 98th out of the 103 teams who have played this season. Each of the team’s opponents outside of Kentucky has scored at least 35 points. A few factors have hurt the Tigers: starting cornerback Jarvis Ware missed almost all of the first two games due to injury, and Missouri has faced a solid stretch of quarterbacks. The team almost certainly won’t see another passer as productive as Mac Jones, Kyle Trask or Myles Brennan during the second half of the season. But the Tigers’ young offense can’t be expected to score five touchdowns a game, so the secondary needs to shore up its pass defense moving forward.

-- Red zone scoring: Missouri has generally been able to move the ball this season. Finding the end zone has been a bit more of a challenge. The Tigers have advanced inside the opponent’s 20-yard line 15 times this season. Only seven of those drives have ended with a touchdown. That ranks the Tigers 95th nationally in red zone scoring percentage. During a season in which Missouri is rarely going to be more talented than its opponent, it can’t afford to leave those points on the field.

-- Holding onto the ball: Speaking of leaving offensive opportunities on the field, Missouri has been hurt by drops and fumbles so far this season. The Tiger pass-catchers dropped nine passes across the first two games of the season. Those issues looked to be corrected, as the team didn’t record a drop during the wins over LSU and Kentucky. But the receiving corps regressed to their form from the first two weeks of the season against Florida. Pro Football Focus credited the pass-catchers with four drops during the game, and that number certainly could have been higher. Fumbles have been an even bigger issue. Missouri has put the ball on the ground 12 times through the first five games, and seven of those have been recovered by the opposition. Muffed punts have accounted for two of those lost fumbles and the quarterback position for four. As a result, Missouri is minus-four in the turnover margin so far this season. Those are the types of plays that so often mean the difference between a win and a loss in conference play.

-- Will depth be an issue? Not only did Missouri enter this season down four scholarships due to NCAA sanctions, the team has seen its fair share of attrition since the start of the season. Since the start of fall camp, seven players have either opted out of the season or entered the transfer portal, or both. Several others have missed time due to injury. As a result, Missouri had just 64 scholarship players at its disposal against Florida. The lack of depth started to show, as an offensive line featuring two players making their first college start struggled and a defensive line that was down Kobie Whiteside and Darius Robinson appeared to wear down during the second half. Now, with five games in five weeks looming after the bye, depth becomes even more of a concern — especially since one positive COVID test can wipe out a half dozen players or more for two weeks. The offensive line, in particular, will need to get healthy during the off week. The unit clearly missed left guard guard Xavier Delgado and right tackle Larry Borom against Florida, and now Delgado’s backup, true freshman Dylan Spencer, has been suspended for the first half against Georgia.

-- Are road struggles coincidental, or start of a trend? As noted above, Missouri is 3-2 against the spread this season. The Tigers played Alabama tough, or at least tougher than most expected, and covered the spread in the season-opener, then beat LSU and Kentucky straight up. The common denominator: All those games were played at Faurot Field. Missouri has been uncompetitive in its two road games, losing one by 33 and the other by 34. Given the limited capacity crowds across the SEC, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense for playing at home to make that big a difference this season, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. The good news is Missouri only has two more games on the road.

-- What can this team lean on? So far this season, Missouri has done a lot of different things well from time to time, but almost nothing consistently. Considering Drinkwitz has only coached five games here and Bazelak has only started three and the team didn’t get a traditional offseason, that shouldn’t exactly come as a shock. But the team still hasn't established what its strengths are, what it can rely on from week to week. The closest thing is probably running the ball with senior tailback Larry Rountree III, who has two 100-yard games on the season and handled 37 carries against Kentucky, but Rountree got bottled up against Florida, rushing for just 36 yards on 14 carries. His season average of 4.3 yards per carry would actually be the lowest of his career if the year ended today. Jalen Knox has been the most consistent weapon as a receiver, but he has a couple tough drops on the season. On the defensive side, Missouri has been beaten badly through the air two times, gashed on the ground once and just saw Florida do both. There’s certainly something to be said for adaptability, as Missouri showed by beating LSU and Kentucky two different ways, but ultimately, Drinkwitz will need to find plays and players he can rely on showing up every week, especially in high-leverage situations.

No. 5 Georgia will come to Columbia after Missouri’s bye week, continuing the run of ranked opponents for the Tigers. The Bulldogs will be coming off a pivotal matchup with Florida with control of the SEC East at stake, so there’s a chance Georgia could come out a bit flat, but given the talent disparity and that Missouri will be without three players for the first half, expect the Tigers to be multi-touchdown underdogs. After that, however, the schedule gets far easier. None of the final four opponents on Missouri’s schedule currently has a winning record. The closest is actually Arkansas, which hadn’t won an SEC game in either of the past two seasons but has found a spark under new head coach Sam Pittman. The Razorbacks have beaten the two Mississippi schools (both upsets at the time, but neither exactly slaying a giant), lost a heartbreaker to Auburn and been out-classed by Georgia and Texas A&M. Certainly, much will be made of Odom’s return to Columbia in what should be a close game.

Before facing Arkansas, Missouri will travel to South Carolina, another team that currently sits at 2-3. As is seemingly the case every year, the Tigers and Gamecocks have had similar seasons; South Carolina pulled off an upset of then-ranked Auburn and blew out Vanderbilt while losing to Tennessee and Florida. The Gamecocks had a rough last outing, though, losing 52-24. Finally, Missouri will almost certainly close the season favored to win its last two games. Mississippi State has mustered just 28 total offensive points in the past four games since upsetting LSU in its season-opener, all losses. Vanderbilt, which Missouri will host Dec. 12 after the Oct. 17 matchup between the two teams had to be postponed, sits at 0-4 and has lost its past three games by an average of 33.7 points per game.

Ultimately, winning three of the final five games to get back to .500 on the year should be the goal for Missouri, with a clean sweep of the last four contests not out of the question.

Offensive MVP: Larry Rountree III

Defensive MVP: Nick Bolton

Most improved player: Larry Borom

Play of the season: Joshuah Bledsoe’s break-up of a pass from LSU quarterback Myles Brennan to receiver Terrance Marshall Jr. in the end zone on fourth down and one, capping a sequence of four consecutive stops for the Missouri defense when LSU had the ball at the one-yard line in the game’s final minute.