Schedule preview: Troy
We are about three months away from the start of the college football season, and while there are still several questions that need to be answered before Missouri kicks off its 2019 campaign (such as clearing up whether the team will be allowed to play in the postseason this year), it’s never too early to start taking a look at the schedule. In this series, we are going game-by-game to break down the Tigers' slate. Today, we take a look at the team's Week Five opponent: Troy.
2018 season
Record: 10-3
Against Missouri: N/A
Key losses: WR Damion Willis, WR Deondre Douglas, WR Sidney Davis, C Deontae Crumitie, LB Tron Folsom, CB Marcus Jones, CB Blace Brown, S Cedarius Rookard, DE Hunter Reese
Key returners: RB B.J. Smith, QB Kaleb Barker, QB Sawyer Smith, G Kirk Kelley, DE Jarvis Hayes, DE Antoine Barker, LB Carlton Martial, CB Tyler Murray
Quick look
Former Troy head coach Neal Brown, who led the Trojans to at least 10 wins in three consecutive seasons, will be coming to Columbia next season, just not with Troy. After a 10-3 campaign that included a signature win over Nebraska a season ago, Brown replaced Dana Holgorsen at West Virginia, which plays at Missouri in Week Two. As a result, the task of keeping Brown’s momentum rolling at Troy falls to first-time head coach Chip Lindsey, who spent last season as the offensive coordinator at Auburn. Lindsey should have plenty of talent left on the roster, but as with any head coaching change, how the players adjust to his new system will be key to the Trojans’ success.
Aside from Lindsey’s transition, the other big unanswered question for Troy will be who lines up under center this season. Rising senior Kaleb Barker beat out junior Sawyer Smith for the starting job prior to last season, and he played very well, completing 73 percent of his passes while throwing for 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. He also added three touchdowns on the ground. However, Barker suffered a season-ending injury in the team’s sixth game of the season. Smith filled in admirably in his absence. Smith completed 62.8 percent of his throws and tossed 14 touchdowns versus six interceptions during the second half of the season. Smith wasn’t quite the running threat of Barker, though no matter who starts at quarterback this season, the Trojans should still have a strong ground game. Workhorse running back B.J. Smith is back after racking up 1,186 yards and 19 touchdowns a season ago. His primary backup, Jabir Frye, is back as well. Frye offers a change of pace from Smith and caught 22 passes in addition to his 53 carries a season ago.
The primary offensive challenge for Lindsey will be boosting a passing attack that ranked No. 81 nationally last season despite the departure of the team’s top three wide receivers. Damion Willis, Deondre Douglas and Sidney Davis combined to catch a whopping 147 passes for 1,747 yards and 20 touchdowns a season ago. The rest of the receiving corps combined for 101 catches, 1,052 yards and five scores.
Defensively, Troy will lose a few key pieces, most notably linebacker Tron Folsom, but the Trojans should be solid once again. After a poor defensive showing against Boise State in the season opener last year, Troy stifled opposing offenses, giving up just 19.2 points per game. The Trojans finished the season ranked No. 24 nationally against the run, giving up fewer than 130 yards per game on the ground. They ranked No. 57 against the pass, but didn’t allow a single 300-yard passer after the loss to Boise State. With former linebackers coach Brandon Hall staying in-house as the defensive coordinator, we wouldn’t expect a big dropoff this season.
Players to watch
1. B.J. Smith, RB
Smith carried the ball at least 15 times in nine of Troy’s final 10 games last season. Look for him to carry the load all year long once again as a senior. Troy should look to run the ball to set up its passing game — the Trojans rushed the ball about 37 times per game last season versus about 28 passing attempts. If Smith gets into a rhythm, the entire offense should benefit. Smith isn’t solely a grinder, either; he tallied 21 carries of 20 yards or more last season. Keeping him bottled up will be the top priority for Missouri’s defense.
2. Jarvis Hayes, DE
Hayes was one of several Troy defensive linemen that excelled at tackling opponents for loss last season. He finished the year with 4.5 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss. As a team, Troy racked up 100 tackles for loss on the year, which ranked No. 14 nationally. It just so happens that preventing negative plays has been a strength of Missouri. The Tigers allowed 52 tackles for loss a season ago, which tied for fifth in the country, and just 13 sacks, which tied for eighth. The matchups between the Tiger offensive tackles and Hayes and fellow defensive end Antoine Barker (who had 4.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss last season) figure to be key.
3. Whoever lines up at wide receiver
If last season is any indication, Missouri should be pretty well-equipped to slow down Troy’s rushing attack. The Tigers will likely be a bit more vulnerable through the air. In order to take advantage, Troy will need someone to emerge as a reliable pass-catcher. As mentioned above, the Trojans lost their three most productive receivers from a season ago. Tray Eafford made the biggest impact among the returners a year ago, catching three touchdowns on 24 receptions, while Luke Whittmore hinted at an ability to be a big-play threat, as he averaged 26.7 yards on 12 receptions. Troy will need those two and others to win one-on-one matchups against Missouri’s defensive backs in order to move the ball against the Tigers.
Summary
The casual fan might dismiss Troy as a typical easy non-conference victory for Missouri, but the Trojans have shown in recent years they are no pushover. In 2017, Troy upset LSU in Baton Rouge before knocking off Nebraska in Lincoln last season. If Missouri comes out flat, it could be next in the line of Power Five opponents to fall to the Trojans at home. That said, if the Tiger offense is clicking on all cylinders, Troy shouldn’t be able to score with Missouri. The biggest key will likely be ball security. Troy feasted on turnovers a season ago, taking the ball away from opponents 31 times, which tied for third-most in the country. As long as Missouri can avoid costly turnovers, the Tigers’ talent should prevail.
Missouri's full 2019 schedule
8/31: at Wyoming (Read our preview here.)
9/7: West Virginia (Preview)
9/14: Southeast Missouri State
9/21: South Carolina (Preview)
10/5: Troy
10/12: Ole Miss
10/19: at Vanderbilt
10/26: at Kentucky
11/9: at Georgia
11/16: Florida
11/23: Tennessee
11/29: at Arkansas*
* Game will be played in Little Rock