Tiger Tip-Off Preview: Minnesota

Missouri got back in the win column on Monday, taking down SIU Edwardsville at home, 68-50. Now, the Tigers head out for their first road trip of the year, going up against Minnesota.

The Golden Gophers have taken care of business through their first two games of the year, defeating Bethune-Cookman on Nov. 6, 80-60, and UTSA on Nov. 10, 102-76. Mizzou will be the first opponent the team has gone up against this season ranked inside KenPom’s top 250.

Minnesota is coming off an injury-riddled 9-22 season in which it won just two conference games. The Golden Gophers were predicted to finish in last place in the Big Ten preseason media poll. Ben Johnson, entering his third year as head coach, will be looking to prove his doubters wrong.

This will be the first time the two programs have played each other since they took part in a home-and-home series during the 1959-60 and 1960-61 seasons. It will be a chance for both sides to pick up their first victory against a quality opponent. Mizzou will have the bigger challenge of being away from home.

"We have an opportunity to go out on the road in Big Ten country in Minnesota against a well-coached program that is led by Coach Johnson, who I respect so dearly, an unbelievable coach," head coach Dennis Gates said. "But also a historic place, a great venue, a little different because there's a heightened court but it's it's still remarkable venue to play in. And they have great talent in the program. Their fans are unreal, great city, nothing but positive."

Missouri (2-1) at Minnesota (2-0)

WHEN: 8 p.m. CT

WHERE: Williams Arena, Minneapolis, Minnesota

TV: Big Ten Network

SERIES: Minnesota leads, 2-0

KENPOM PREDICTION: Missouri 72, Minnesota 71

1. Contain Dawson Garcia. The 6-foot-11 forward has gotten off to an impressive start for the Golden Gophers, scoring 23 points in the season opener and dropping another 22 in the team’s second game. Garcia was Minnesota’s best player last season, leading the team with 15.7 points and 6.7 rebounds. This is the first year of his college career in which he has the same head coach as he did the season prior. Garcia has range out to the 3-point line, but does his best work in the paint. He displayed a knack for getting to the free throw line throughout his career, drawing at least 4.4 fouls per 40 minutes every year. Sophomore post Pharrel Payne, who missed the Golden Gophers’ game against UTSA due to a foot injury, gives the team another strong interior finisher if healthy.

Denying Minnesota’s bigs good looks around the hoop will be Mizzou’s biggest priority on defense. It’s a good thing, then, that Tigers 7-foot-5 center Connor Vanover, the No. 2 shot-blocker in the country last year, will finally be available to play.

"We just have to see where he's at," Gates said. "And he's been practicing, which is tremendous for him to continue to do. It wasn't like he was, you know, not able to practice. So he's been there every step of the way, he's been coaching his behind off in our last three games, he's been into it mentally and emotionally. And those are the things you want a guy like him, who's been through several seasons, to be able to stay connected. And he's been that. I think he has a smile on his face if anything. But you know the guys love him. I'm looking forward to seeing what he does in this system. This is his first time playing in this system, it's not a secret, this is his first game back. But ultimately for him, I don't want him to just try to make home runs, I want him to play simple and stay within himself and ultimately allow the game to come to him."

2. Pressure Minnesota’s backcourt. The Golden Gophers lost last year’s starting point guard to the portal in Ta’Lon Cooper, the Big Ten’s No. 2 leader in assists with 6.3 per game. Johnson brought in Howard transfer Elijah Hawkins and Pepperdine transfer Mike Mitchell Jr. to fill in the gap. While the pair have kept the team’s assist rate at a high level, they’re also turning the ball over at an alarming rate. Combined the pair of guards have an assist-to-turnover ratio of 7.5-to-5.5. The loose handle on the ball should be something Missouri’s guards can take advantage of — the team’s opponents have coughed the ball up at least 10 times in each of its first three games this season.

3. Keep the ball moving. The Tigers’ offense has seen a slight decline in its assist rate this year compared to last. The team earned an assist on 56.5% of its made field goals in 2022-23 — so far this season, the team’s only done so on 53.2% of its makes. In its two wins this year, Mizzou had 19 and 16 dimes. The Tigers got off to a slow start on offense against SIUE on Monday but got out of its funk once players started sharing the ball more. Minnesota has not produced a high number of takeaways in any year with Johnson at the helm. Missouri should feel confident swinging the ball around to find its best shot each possession without much threat of giving the possession away.

Minnesota may be improved this season, but it’s still a team Mizzou should beat. The Tigers know this is a game that could help their resume come March. Vanover’s return should deepen the black and gold’s frontcourt and be beneficial against a post-oriented offense. I’ve got Missouri winning 72-66.

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