The No. 7-seed Missouri Tigers are on to the next one as they take on the No. 2-seeded Florida Gators in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals at 6 p.m. tonight.
Here’s a scouting report, some Mizzou notes, matchups to watch and what I think will lead to a Tiger win.
Scouting report
After being the rested team going against a program that had to win a game the day before, the Tigers have switched fates to face the well-rested Gators who haven’t played since Saturday.
Florida finished the season winning nine of its final 10 games (with the lone loss coming at Georgia on Feb. 25) and lost only one game at home this season (do I need to remind you which one?).
The Gators have scored 80 or more points in all but one game since being held to 44 on the road at Tennessee on the first day of February.
Florida averages 84.5 points per game and allows just 68.2, with those numbers at 82.4 scored and 71.6 allowed in conference play.
Florida shoots 46.9 percent from the field, 35.2 percent from 3 (on 9.9 made 3-pointers per game) and 71.1 percent from the free-throw line (on 14.5 made free throws per game). They allow teams to shoot just 39.5 percent from the field, 29.6 percent on 6.6 made 3-pointers per game and 71.0 percent from the stripe on 13.7 makes per game.
The Gators dominate the boards, bringing down 42.4 rebounds per game, while allowing opponents to grab 34.0.
The Tigers beat the Gators on the road in January on the strength of an incredible start as Missouri jumped out to a 24-14 lead, then built to a 35-20 advantage and led by as much as 42-23 before taking a 50-34 lead into halftime.
The Gators’ comeback attempt fell just short.
Caleb Grill led the Tigers with 22 points on six made 3s, while Mark Mitchell had 15 points and eight rebounds, Anthony Robinson added 12 points and Tamar Bates had 10 points, five steals and three assists.
Florida leading scorer Walter Clayton collected 28 points, five rebounds and three assists in the first matchup, while Alijah Martin had 14 points and four rebounds, Will Richard added 12 points and Rueben Chinyelu had a double-double of 11 points and 10 rebounds before fouling out.
Clayton averages 17.2 points per game to go with 4.3 assists, while Martin averaged 14.5 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. Richard contributes 13.3 points and 4.7 rebounds per game and Alex Condon adds 11.4 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.43 blocks per game.
With the win in January, Missouri cut Florida’s series lead to 11-5.
Mizzou Notes
- Bates is the only player in the national shooting 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3 and 90 percent from the free-throw line
- The Tigers are looking to make the SEC Tournament Semifinals for just the second time in program history (2022-23).
- With a win, the Tigers would become the first team since Duke in 2018-19 to have four top-five wins in a single season.
- The Tigers and Gators have matched up once before in the SEC Tournament, with No. 1-ranked Florida winning 72-49 in 2014.
- There has been no update on Mitchell today, which I’m taking as he’s available.
Matchups
Turnovers
It’s been talked about a lot recently, the Tigers just aren’t forcing enough turnovers or taking care of the ball well enough recently, that’s been a major factor in the recent downswing on the season.
We saw a few sloppy turnovers yesterday as well, the Tigers can’t afford any of those tonight.
And on the other side of the ball, Missouri has to get back to a havoc defense that allows the Tigers to play in transition.
In the last matchup, the Tigers won the turnover battle 13-8 and scored 18 points off turnovers compared to six for Florida.
If Missouri is going to move on to the SEC semifinals, it’s going to have to have a similar turnover differential.
Alex Condon/Rueben Chinyelu/Thomas Haugh vs Mizzou defense
Those are Florida’s three big men and all three had some level of success in the first meeting.
Chinyelu had a double-double in just 25 minutes, Condon had eight points, six rebounds and three assists and Haugh had seven points and five rebounds in just 16 minutes.
If the Tigers are struggling with interior defense again, those three are going to have a field day.
But if Mizzou can keep the trio contained, the Tigers could match its deepest run in SEC Touranment play.
What I'm looking for
Honestly, there’s nothing to lose with this game. The Tigers did what they needed to do with the win yesterday, they’re not going to drop past a 7 seed for next week. But a win tonight could basically equal out the final 2.5 weeks of the regular season and get the Tigers back ujp into the conversation for a 5 seed.
So I’m just looking for the Tigers to play loose like they have nothing to lose, because they don’t. Grill needs to fire up those 3s he was turning down yesterday, Robinson needs to be playing with a shimmy in his shoulders, Bates needs to keep attacking like he did last night.
A lot is going to have to go right, but if it doesn’t, nothing is really lost.
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