FORT WORTH, TX--We do it every year. We take our final impression and we extrapolate it to games that aren't going to be played for more than 250 days. What does this bowl game tell us about next year?
Truthfully, probably not a whole lot.
"I really don’t know," Mizzou head coach Eli Drinkwitz said after his team lost 24-22 to Army on a last-second field goal in the Armed Forces Bowl. "I mean there’s still a lot to be determined. This team will never be the same again. Losing the seniors, losing people to transfers, incoming recruits coming in."
So much will be different about this team by spring football, much less by fall camp or the 2022 season. That's not to say there's nothing to build on. Some of it was on display on Wednesday night.
That has to start with Brady Cook. The redshirt freshman quarterback seemed like the odd man out in the position derby midseason when Tyler Macon replaced Connor Bazelak after Bazelak was hurt against Vanderbilt. Drinkwitz said it was "situational," but then he started Macon the following week at Georgia. Macon and Cook split time against the Bulldogs. The nation's best defense wasn't really a fair test for either, but Cook pretty clearly had a better grade. But back to the bench he went as Bazelak struggled through the final three weeks of the season. Missouri won two of those games, but there were plenty of bumps and Bazelak hit bottom in the season finale against Arkansas, throwing for just 65 yards in a 34-17 loss.
Drinkwitz opened the competition before the bowl game and Cook won it. He did nothing to indicate he isn't the best quarterback Missouri has on its roster right now. It can be argued Wednesday night was the best quarterback play the Tigers have gotten all season.
The reality has always been that one of Mizzou's signal callers would probably hit the transfer portal after this season, especially with blue-chipper Sam Horn coming in. But after Wednesday night, it seems a lot less likely it would be Cook. We're not trying to push anyone out the door and maybe they all stick around to compete for the job in spring football, but that room looks different next year.
Behind Cook, Elijah Young split the carries with Dawson Downing on Wednesday in replacing Tyler Badie. Young had more than 100 yards of total offense and showed both speed and toughness. There's plenty to like there and Mizzou has three young backs in Tavorus Jones, BJ Harris and Taj Butts who will compete for carries. Don't rule out the transfer portal there.
The wide receiver and tight end positions will look totally different due to the incoming recruiting class and the transfer portal.
Defensively, Missouri won't much resemble the group we saw Wednesday night. If Devin Nicholson takes another snap at corner, something's gone terribly wrong for Steve Wilks. The Tigers need a new punter, but they've got at least another year of Harrison Mevis, the country's best security blanket.
Some of the biggest growth will likely come from Drinkwitz. It's time. Next year will be his third. Yes, he had a tough start with COVID in year one and an opening game against Alabama leading to an all-SEC schedule. Yes, there were holes on the roster and Missouri's talent was below average in the SEC.
But next year it's his. He owns it. For better or for worse.
"We’re playing more as a team," Mevis said. "I think we’re recruiting really good. I think we all believe in the coaches. I think that people are starting to buy in. I think that’s the main thing. We need people to buy in and I think we’ve been doing that. It’s only up from here."
Some of that's probably true. Some of it's what you would expect a player to say after a tough loss to end the season. The truth is, it's very fair to question the buy in of some of this roster. There were quite a few players who transferred out before this game arrived or didn't play it for reasons that weren't quite clear. But the guys who were on the field against Army? There shouldn't be a lot of questioning about their buy in. And the star-studded recruiting class coming in all signed up to play for Drinkwitz. You'd think they'll be bought in.
Next year is the first year we really get to see if Drinkwitz is good at building a program. He took over a ready-made project at Appalachian State and won 11 games. He deserves credit for that, but it wasn't really his team. And if the struggles of the Tigers (they're 11-12 in his first two years) are going to be laid at the feet of his predecessor, then Drinkwitz bears some responsibility for the Mountaineers going from 54-12 in five years to 19-7 in the last two. It's not a disastrous dropoff by any means, but it's a dropoff.
We know Drinkwitz can recruit. He can put together a team on paper unlike any Missouri has seen. Can he build a roster? Can he manage the egos? Can he navigate the pratfalls of trying to get 100 college kids to pull in the same direction? We don't really know any of that yet. We won't get a definitive answer next year, but we'll start to get a few more clues.
The answers are a long. time away. The wait begins.
"We'll see," Drinkwitz said. "I don't know."
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