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Published Dec 29, 2023
Mizzou Game Day Preview & Predictions: Cotton Bowl against No. 7 Ohio State
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Jarod Hamilton  •  PowerMizzou
Staff Writer
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@jarodchamilton

The last time No. 9 Missouri (10-2) played a game, it handed its rival Arkansas a 48-14 loss in Week 13.

Since then, the Tigers' wave of momentum has morphed into a tsunami when you add up their first New Year’s Six bowl game, top 30 recruiting class, incoming transfers and various awards such as the Burlsworth Trophy and Southeastern Conference Coach of the Year going to running back Cody Schrader and head coach Eli Drinkwitz.

In No. 7 Ohio State's last game, it fell to No. 1 Michigan in Week 13 and the loss effectively kicked them out of the College Football Playoffs, something the Buckeyes (11-1) have participated in five times since it debuted 10 years ago.

Despite not being in the CFP, the prideful Buckeyes still have something to play for and are looking to finish the season strong by not letting Mizzou get its first New Year's Six win in the Cotton Bowl.

Kickoff Information

Time: 7:00 p.m. CT

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Tex.

TV: ESPN (Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek, Tom Luginbill)

Radio: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino), ESPN Radio (Brad Sham, Kirk Morrison, Taylor McGregor

Series history: Ohio State leads 10-1-1

Spread: Ohio State -3.5

Mizzou Injury Report

LB Ty'Ron Hopper: Out

CB Ennis Rakestraw: Out

About Ohio State

If you thought losing to Michigan and being out of the CFP was going to severely hamper Ohio State. You're wrong.

The Buckeyes are used to playing in the CFP but unlike most title-contending teams that miss out on the CFP, Ohio State didn't have most of its team opt out. It actually had the opposite effect. The Buckeyes had more opt ins if anything.

Everyone on defense opted into the bowl game. The only true question mark for the "Silver Bullet" defense may be Big Ten Linebacker of the Year Tommy Eichenberg and his status for this game.

He's been dealing with an elbow injury and was seen stretching with teammates during the media's 15-minute practice availability on Wednesday. However, he didn't participate in drills, as he stood behind the rest of the linebacker group without his helmet and in a padless uniform.

On the offensive side of the ball, fourth-place Heisman finalist Marvin Harrison Jr. has at least been seen at Buckeyes practices during the week but like Eichenberg, he was typically off to the side or on an exercise bike.

Considering the wide receiver is mocked as a consensus top-10 pick in the upcoming draft should he declare for it, he's unlikely to play.

Outside of Harrison, the biggest change is quarterback Devin Brown replacing Kyle McCord in the starting lineup.

McCord, who completed 65.8% of his passes and threw for 3,170 yards for 24 touchdowns and six interceptions, announced his intentions not too long after the bowl game was announced and has since found a new home at Syracuse.

Brown, a former four-star prospect in the class of 2022, has only had 76 snaps this season, but he was in the thick of a quarterback race with McCord coming out of fall camp.

Offensive coordinator Brian Hartline, as well as some of Brown's teammates, like running back TreVeyon Henderson indicated they are not worried about Brown's ability to play at a high level.

"Devin has been doing a great job," Hartline said." He's in a different role currently than he maybe has been all year. Coming back from getting a little dinged up during the middle of the season. He was gaining a lot of momentum through the season, but he's having a great bowl prep, and we're excited that he's out there. He's got pretty good energy to practice. The guys are excited to have him running the show and Devin has done a great job preparing for this game. He knows the importance and his work resembles that."

"Devin is prepared. He's always been prepared," Henderson said with a grin. "He leads the whole offensive. He's a great leader. We encourage each other. And so yeah, I mean, I think like I said, I think he's ready man. He's putting in the work. He put in the time and it's going to show Friday."

Brown is more than his predecessor and has a strong arm, but with limited playing time, it's hard to see how he may stack up to Missouri's 39th-ranked defense.

Nonetheless, Brown feels good about the game plan and isn't feeling too much pressure going into his first start.

"I feel like I've stacked a great month together," Brown said. "I feel like this team has been very well coached and prepared and this team has been rolling. Obviously, there's going to be a little bit of pressure with the game but even my family was asking me like, 'Are you nervous for this game?' and I'm like, 'I've been playing this game since I was seven years old. It's the same game just in a bigger stadium."

Ohio State will also be without starting receiver Julian Fleming, who also entered the transfer portal and its No. 2 running back Chip Trayanum, who transferred to Kentucky.

Fortunately for the Buckeyes, Henderson is healthy and will play. He's missed three games due to injury but is one of the nation's best backs when healthy.

He racked up 11 touchdowns and 854 yards on 137 carries.

Henderson will get a decent amount of carries out of the backfield and some work in the passing game.

At wideout, the Buckeyes still have Emeka Egbuka, a Day 1 NFL Draft talent, and five-star freshmen Carnell Tate and Brandon Inniss.

Egbuka, like Henderson, has dealt with some injuries this season and had ankle surgery during the year. So, his stats are down from his breakout 2022 season. Yet, he hauled in 35 passes for 452 yards and four touchdowns in nine games.

Tate burned his redshirt after appearing in all 12 games and racked up 17 receptions for 260 yards and a touchdown.

Inniss also burned his redshirt after appearing in seven games. He doesn't have numbers like Tate's, but his one reception was a 58-yard touchdown.

Eli Drinkwitz has said multiple times leading up to the game that the defense will have to be reactionary because Brown has played limited reps, but he's shown his versatility in those reps.

It's safe to assume that Mizzou defensive coordinator Blake Baker will try to dial up blitzes and simulated pressures to see how Brown reacts.

How Brown does with the pressure will likely determine the game for both teams going forward.

For more, on Ohio State's offense, click here.

Defensively, the Buckeyes have fewer holes to worry about. There is more of a read on how their defense will try to contain and combat Mizzou's offense.

Ohio State has pressured opposing quarterbacks on 36.4% of dropbacks this season, 20th in the FBS, according to TruMedia.

That is slightly down from last season when the Buckeyes ranked 12th in the FBS at 38.7%.

Ohio State has used man coverage on 31% of snaps this season, which ranks 50th in the FBS, down from 35.9% last season (23rd in FBS). It has used zone on 63.6% of snaps (81st in FBS).

The remaining 5.4% are plays in which a hybrid coverage was used or in short-yardage situations near the goal line.

So, the Buckeyes are truly multiple. They have man corners but will mix in zone when it's warranted.

Ohio State is really good at the fundamentals.

According to PFF College, the Buckeyes have the eighth-best tackling grade in the nation at 90.2. That's 12 spots higher and 8.8% better than the best tackling team (Arkansas) Mizzou faced all season.

Missouri has had its fair share of struggles tackling, so it knows it’s something that can shift momentum and the outcome of games.

That'll be huge for Ohio State considering receiver Luther Burden III finished second in yards after the catch with 711, nearly 60% of his 1,197 receiving yards. Meanwhile, Heisman finalist Cody Schrader also rushed for 3.18 yards after contact.

The Buckeyes have six all-conference selections on defense and there's NFL talent at every level of the defense.

Ohio State has the nation's best pass defense at 147.4 yards per game and the third-best defense at 259.9 yards allowed per game.

Something that is underrated about the Buckeyes' defense is when you look at their sack numbers, they're not great. The same thing can be said for their takeaway numbers.

Ohio State only has 22 sacks on the season (1.83 per game), which ranks 91st in the FBS, and it is T-119th in takeaways with 11.

So, how is it a top-five defense without sacks and takeaways?

It forces enough pressure that opposing offenses have to do quick passes, it rarely gives up big plays and it has a great secondary, led by lockdown cornerback Denzel Burke, who essentially eliminates a side of the field to throw to.

The Buckeyes allowed a fumblerooksi against Rutgers and that was the only big play of 40 yards they allowed all season.

They're also seventh in third-down defense at 28%. So, they are still getting stops.

Ohio State's schedule may give credence to the idea that its defense isn't as legit as its rankings indicate, but it is.

Missouri must establish the run game against Ohio State's 21st-ranked run defense (112.5 yards allowed per game) to open up the pass.

Schrader had five straight 100-yard games to end the season, including two 200-yard games in the last three weeks. A good day on the ground will open up the run.

Again, the trenches will determine this game, and so will the turnover battle and third downs.

For more, on Ohio State's defense, click here.

Bold prediction

1. Schrader breaks the single-season rushing record.

Schrader needs 106 yards to break Tyler Badie's record for the most rushing yards in a single season in program history. It certainly won't be easy facing a stifling run defense like Ohio State, but Schrader has run on top 30 run defenses like Georgia and Tennessee. He's capable of the feat.

Bold predictions record: Last prediction: 1-0, Season: 10-8

Game Prediction  

Jarod: Devin Brown being the quarterback seems like a plus for Missouri, but is it? Ohio State is fully behind him and he seems super confident. He's not some random three-star guy. He's a high four-star guy who's been in the system for a minute. I think Ohio State has the upper hand to start this game with them scoring first, but I think the losses of Rakestraw and Hopper are more manageable than the ones Ohio State has. Ohio State hasn't played without McCord, Harrison and Fleming this season. Those key players being out may give Mizzou the edge in what may be a closer battle than some anticipate. Give me Missouri 26-23.

Gabe: More Buckeyes are playing than I thought would play. And they're a good team without question. But I can't get past the motivation factor. This game just means more to Mizzou. In addition, I think the Tigers have the best offense Ohio State has seen this season, and I don't think it's particularly close. Give me Mizzou 26, Ohio State 24 on a Harrison Mevis game-winner.

PowerMizzou.com is a proud game day partner of Yuengling Traditional Lager. All of our coverage leading up to Mizzou's bowl game and on game day from Dallas will be presented by Yuengling, the taste of game-time @yuenglingbeer #LagerUp.    

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