Schedule Preview: Ole Miss
We are inside of three months away from the start of the college football season, and while there are still several questions that need to be answered before Missouri kicks off its 2019 campaign (such as clearing up whether the team will be allowed to play in the postseason this year), it’s never too early to start taking a look at the schedule. In this series, we are going game-by-game to break down the Tigers' slate. Today, we take a look at the team's Week Six opponent: Mississippi.
2018 season
Record: 5-7
Against Mizzou: N/A
Key Losses: QB Jordan Ta’amu, WR A.J. Brown, WR D.K. Metcalf, WR DaMarkus Lodge, OT Greg Little, CB Ken Webster, S Zedrick Woods
Key Returners: RB Scottie Phillips, G Ben Brown, DT Benito Jones, DT Josiah Coatney, LB Mohamed Sanogo, DB Keidron Smith
Quick Look
The good news for Ole Miss is that its defense, the team’s glaring weakness in 2018, should get better this season. The Rebels hired former Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre to coordinate the unit and return nine starters on that side of the ball.
The bad news is the one thing Ole Miss did really well last season, throwing the football, could be more of a challenge in 2019.
Matt Luke’s team is replacing its starting quarterback for the second offseason in a row, this year trying to find a successor for Jordan Ta’amu. Ta’amu was extremely productive in his lone season as Ole Miss’ starter, throwing for 3,918 yards and 19 touchdowns. His 326.5 yards per game averaged ranked fourth in the country. After appearing in four games a season ago, redshirt freshman Matt Corral looks to be the likely successor to Ta’amu. Corral completed 16 of his 22 pass attempts last season for 239 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Even though most of his action came late in games that were already decided, people around the Ole Miss program seem to be high on the former four-star recruit. Complicating things for Corral, however, will be the fact that the Rebels also have to replace their three most productive receivers from last season. The biggest loss will be A.J. Brown, whose 85 receptions ranked No. 16 nationally and whose 110 yards per game averaged ranked No. 6. In addition, DeMarkus Lodge hauled in 65 catches for 855 yards and four touchdowns, while D.K. Metcalf had 26 catches for 559 yards and five scores before an injury ended his season. Filling the void will fall primarily to Elijah Moore, who had 36 catches for 398 yards as a freshman last year.
The good news for Corral and the Ole Miss offense is that the Rebels return their two primary running backs from a season ago. Scottie Phillips, who carried the ball 153 times for 928 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, should be an even bigger part of the offense as a senior. He will be complimented by sophomore Isaiah Woullard, who gained 428 yards on 84 carries as a freshman.
Defensively, Ole Miss has room to improve in just about every area. The Rebels ranked No. 121 out of 130 teams in total defense a year ago; No 116 against the run and No. 111 against the pass. The team forced just 15 turnovers (No. 101 nationally) and had 22 sacks (No. 101). The team brings back defensive tackles Benito Jones and Josiah Coatney as well as leading tackler Mohamed Sanogo, so that should provide some hope of an improvement against the run. The Rebels lost their most productive safety in Zedrick Woods but will hope returning cornerbacks Keidron Smith and Myles Hartsfield can make a bigger impact against the pass this year. Ole Miss intercepted just seven passes a year ago, tied for 19th-fewest in the country.
Players to watch
1. Matt Corral, QB
Ole Miss is going to need to put up big offensive numbers to beat teams this season, and the most important key to doing so will be its new quarterback. Corral is clearly talented, but expecting him to mimic the production of Ta’amu, who ranked second in the SEC last season in passing yardage per game and ranked second in yards per attempt, might be a lot to ask of a redshirt freshman. Missouri’s defense will likely be more vulnerable through the air than on the ground this season, so if Corral has a big game, the Rebels could have a chance. If he makes a few mistakes typical of a first-year quarterback, Ole Miss could be in trouble.
2. Scottie Phillips, RB
Phillips should be Corral’s best friend this season. He nearly eclipsed 1,000 yards in just 11 games last season, and his 6.1 yards per carry average was actually better than any running back on Missouri’s roster last season. The Rebels attempted nearly 38 passes per game last season, the most in the SEC, but with a new starting quarterback this year, it would be wise to lean on Phillips. Stop him, and Missouri will force a redshirt freshman quarterback to beat them.
3. Benito Jones and Josiah Coatney, DT
The play of its interior linemen was one of the lone bright spots — or, at least, not horribly dark spots — for the Ole Miss defense a season ago. Both starters at defensive tackle, Jones and Coatney, are back for 2019. Coatney ranked third on the roster with 63 tackles — a high number for a defensive lineman — including four tackles for loss last season, while Jones had fewer total stops (34) but was more disruptive, totaling nine tackles for loss. An Ole Miss defense that surrendered a putrid 247.3 yards per game on the ground during conference play last season absolutely must improve against the run this season, and doing so will start with Jones and Coatney. If the Rebels let Missouri run the ball at will, the Tigers should have the upper hand.
Summary
Unless MacIntyre can implement some drastic changes this offseason, it seems unlikely the Rebel defense will have improved enough to frustrate Missouri’s offense. The Rebels’ best hope will likely be winning in a shootout. The productivity of Corral will likely be the biggest factor in determining whether Ole Miss’ offense is good enough to score with Missouri. Even if Corral is as productive as Ta’amu, however, Missouri should be favored in this home matchup.
Missouri's full 2019 schedule
8/31: at Wyoming (Read our preview here.)
9/7: West Virginia (Preview)
9/14: Southeast Missouri State
9/21: South Carolina (Preview)
10/5: Troy (Preview)
10/12: Ole Miss
10/19: at Vanderbilt
10/26: at Kentucky
11/9: at Georgia
11/16: Florida
11/23: Tennessee
11/29: at Arkansas*
* Game will be played in Little Rock