Prior to each Mizzou hoops game this season, we will get Tiger fans set with The Starting Five. In this feature, we'll give you the anticipated starting lineups for each team, break down keys to a Missouri win and offer up a prediction.
Here is the breakdown of tonight's game at Auburn.
OFF THE BENCH: One of Missouri's starting spots is still up in the air, as Mark Smith is expected to play but not a sure thing due to an ankle injury he suffered last week against Arkansas. If Smith cannot play, freshman Torrence Watson will likely start in his place. However, walk-on Ronnie Suggs might actually play more minutes than Watson, as was the case Saturday against LSU. Suggs has now played 12 or more minutes in each of the team's past three games. Freshman point guard Xavier Pinson will likely see increased action as well if Smith is unable to play. After a brief stint in Cuonzo Martin's doghouse, Pinson has worked his way into more playing time during the past two games, though he fouled out in just 14 minutes against LSU. K.J. Santos will likely be the first post player off the bench, and Reed Nikko will replace Jeremiah Tilmon whenever he exits the floor.
OFF THE BENCH: Auburn is expected to be without starting center Austin Wiley for the third game in a row. Chuma Okeke will start in Wiley's place, and senior forward Horace Spencer will likely see some more playing time as well. Spencer is averaging 4.5 points and 4.9 rebounds in nearly 15 minutes per game this season. Six-foot-six wing Malik Dunbar plays the most minutes of any of Auburn's reserves. He's averaging 8.0 points and playing more than 17 minutes per game. Expect freshman guard J'Von McCormick and sophomore forward Danjel Purifoy to also see some action.
TIP TIME INFORMATION
TIPOFF: 7:30 p.m.
LOCATION: Auburn Arena
TELEVISION: SEC Network/WatchESPN
RADIO: The game will be broadcast on the Tiger Radio Network. For a list of affiliates, click here.
KEYS TO THE GAME
1. Take care of the basketball.
This has pretty much become the default No. 1 key for every Missouri basketball game this season. Turnovers sunk Missouri against Arkansas last week, then played a large part in the team's late collapse against LSU. Both of those teams thrive off creating turnovers and using them to score easy points, but Auburn, led by Jared Harper and Bryce Brown, is even better at doing so. Auburn leads the nation in both opponent turnover percentage (25.4 percent) and steal percentage (12.7 percent). It forces 18.8 turnovers per game, which ranks No. 2 nationally. Missouri, meanwhile, has committed 14.6 turnovers per game this season, which ranks No. 272 nationally. If Missouri gets Smith back, that will help, as he can serve as a secondary ball handler, but regardless, if Missouri turns the ball over more times than Auburn in this game, it has little chance of winning.
2. Get Tilmon involved early, and keep him on the floor.
After fouling out four times in a six-game stretch, Tilmon finally managed to stay on the court against LSU, playing a career-high 35 minutes. If he can stay out of foul trouble again Wednesday, the opportunity could be there for a big night. Without Wiley in the lineup, Auburn doesn't have a regular contributor taller than 6-foot-8. Auburn is a minus-13 in rebounding margin in the three games Wiley has missed, and it has been out-rebounded on the offensive glass in all of those games. (It has also lost all three games). As long as Tilmon is on the floor, Missouri should have the matchup advantage down low, plus feeding him should help slow the game down, which will be critical to Missouri's success as well.
3. Get hot from three.
Although it struggled a bit from three-point range against LSU, Missouri's offensive strength this season has been its perimeter shooting. The Tigers are shooting 38.4 percent from three this season, which ranks No. 28 nationally and first in the SEC. Smith has been a huge part of that, which makes his availability an even bigger factor. Smith's three-point shooting percentage of 47.5 percent ranks No. 6 nationally. Auburn, meanwhile, has not exactly locked down opposing shooters this season. Auburn ranks No. 272 nationally in three-point defense, allowing its opponents to shoot 36.2 percent from behind the arc this season. Auburn is going to score points in this game (it ranks No. 12 nationally in scoring), so the best way for Missouri to keep up will be getting hot from the perimeter.
THE BOTTOM LINE
With its frenetic style of play and two-headed monster in the backcourt, Auburn doesn't provide a good matchup for Missouri. Throw in the fact that Auburn will be playing at home and is coming off a three-game losing streak, and we expect it to take the court ready to play. Due to the absence of Wiley, Missouri may have a chance in this one, especially if it can get Tilmon going, slow the game down and get hot from three-point range. But history suggests that Missouri can't withstand the type of on-ball pressure Auburn provides for a full 40 minutes, and the visiting Tigers certainly don't have the offensive weapons to keep up if this game gets into the mid-70s.
Prediction: Auburn 76, Missouri 65
Player of the Game: Tilmon stays on the floor for 25-plus minutes once again and takes advantage of the size mismatch down low to score 14 points and grab eight rebounds.
