Published Nov 25, 2016
Last Looks: Mizzou vs Arkansas
Gabe DeArmond
Publisher

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                                                         THE VITALS

KICKOFF: 1:30 p.m. Central

SITE: Memorial Stadium (71,168)

TV: CBS (Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson, John Schriffen)

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)

SERIES: Mizzou leads 4-3 (Arkansas won 28-3 in 2015)

                                                    RELATED LINKS

                                                THE MATCHUPS

When Mizzou runs the ball: The Tigers are without Damarea Crockett and that is certainly a blow. But Ish Witter ran for 163 yards against Tennessee and Natereace Strong showed flashes of productivity as well. The holes were there all night against the Volunteers. Arkansas' run defense isn't a lot better. The Razorbacks come in 102nd in the country against the ground game. EDGE: Mizzou

When Mizzou throws the ball: Drew Lock is good for some jaw-droppingly good moments in every game and some jaw-droppingly bad ones too. Drop is a good word for the Tiger receiving corps most of this year as well. The Tigers put up yards, but are inconsistent. Arkansas is middle of the road against the pass, giving up 214 yards a game, good for 50th in the country. They've only surrendedered nine touchdown passes, but part of that is probably related to the inability to stop the run. EDGE: EVEN

When Arkansas runs the ball: Rawleigh Williams ranks 16th in the country with 1,209 yards on the season. He has scored 11 touchdowns. Missouri has problems stopping the run. The Hogs are gonna try to pound it right at Mizzou's undermanned defense, which just lost another lineman, Markell Utsey, to a season-ending injury. EDGE: ARKANSAS

When Arkansas throws the ball: The Razorbacks are thought of as a ground and pound team, but Austin Allen ranks 25th in the country in passing yardage. He has completed more than 60% of his passes, has 22 touchdowns and should go over 3,000 yards on the season against the Tigers. Missouri has been susceptible to the pass in recent weeks as the Tiger cornerbacks have failed to find the ball and the safeties have been beaten deep a few times. EDGE: ARKANSAS

Special Teams: It's impossible to give Missouri an edge here. Nobody knows if they'll even attempt a field goal. The entire approach against Tennessee changed because Barry Odom had no confidence to put a kicker on the field. EDGE: ARKANSAS

Intangibles: It's senior day and that can give a team a boost. At the same time, Missouri is playing for nothing in front of a stadium that will probably be about half full. Is there really a home field advantage or an emotional boost? Eric Beisel may have fanned the flames for the Razorbacks with some trash-talking earlier this week. Arkansas would like nothing more than to kick Mizzou while its down. EDGE: ARKANSAS

Coaching: Barry Odom has one SEC win. Bret Bielema has more. EDGE: ARKANSAS

                                                         THE KEYS 

1. Pound the ball. The one thing we know Missouri can do is run the football. Sure, having Crockett out hurts, but the Tigers still should be able to move the ball on the ground. So do that until they stop it. Don't put this game on the shoulders of Drew Lock or the defense until Arkansas shows you have to.

2. Defend the deep ball. Missouri's defensive backs have been beaten one-on-one by a lot of receivers lately. The Hogs are going to take some shots. They're going to score points but Missouri needs to make them earn it with a lot of shorter plays rather than the back-breaking big ones.

3. Get six stops. Let's assume each team is going to get 15 possessions. That seems about standard for a Missouri game. These teams are going to score. It will be a shock if they both don't. Give up four touchdowns and five field goals. That adds up to 43 points. Then tell your offense they've got to get 44. Missouri's defense is yielding 39.8 points per game to SEC offenses outside of Vanderbilt. It would be great to expect them to hold Arkansas under 30, but probably not all that realistic. You're going to have to score. But you can't have to score every time you touch the ball. Six drives without points for the Razorbacks might be enough.

THE PREDICTION


If you love offense, tune into this one. It should be a good old fashioned shootout. The issue there is that Missouri's offense seems to make just enough mistakes to prevent it from really lighting up the scoreboard and the defense doesn't make all that many stops. Both teams have good offenses and bad defenses, but Arkansas' offense is better than Missouri's. Take the Hogs 48-38.

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS

West Virginia 27, Mizzou 17

Mizzou 48, Eastern Michigan 10

Georgia 23, Mizzou 21

Mizzou 54, Delaware State 7

LSU 22, Mizzou 14

Florida 24, Mizzou 7

Mizzou 37, Middle Tennessee 20

Kentucky 42, Mizzou 35

South Carolina 20, Mizzou 10

Vanderbilt 9, Mizzou 8

Tennessee 34, Mizzou 22