THE VITALS
KICKOFF: 3:00 p.m. Central
SITE: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (88,548)
TV: SEC Network (Brent Musberger, Jesse Palmer, Kayley Hartung)
RADIO: Tiger Radio Network (Mike Kelly, Howard Richards, Chris Gervino)
SERIES: Missouri leads 3-2 (Florida won 21-3 in 2015)
GAME PREVIEWS
DEFENSE: DO YOUR JOB | FULL MIZZOU NOTEBOOK | MIZZOU DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS
VIDEO: CROSS & HEUPEL | MIZZOU OFFENSIVE MATCHUPS | BY THE NUMBERS
PREVIEW ON THE PODCAST | FULL FLORIDA COVERAGE | POST YOUR PREDICTION
THE MATCHUPS
When Missouri runs the ball: The Tigers haven't been all that good here. First, they haven't been healthy. Second, it just isn't their strength. Florida has a couple of defensive linemen who are questionable, but they have been good against the run. The Gators are giving up 116 yards a game on the ground. Tennessee ran for 179, but took 46 carries to get there. EDGE: FLORIDA
When Missouri throws the ball: This is the Tigers' offensive strength. But last time out, LSU managed to shut down the passing game largely by pressing the receivers and being physical at the line of scrimmage. Florida has the talent in the secondary to do the same. The Gators also lead the SEC with nine interceptions this season. Drew Lock has a gaudy TD:INT ratio, but that's been helped by his performance against the weaker teams on the schedule. This is a great test to find out how good Missouri's passing game really is. EDGE: EVEN
When Florida runs the ball: The Gators go with a backfield by committee. Four different backs have 100 yards or more on the season, but none has as much as 300. The Gators run it okay, with 191 yards per game on the ground, but nothing like LSU does (at least Missouri better hope not). The offensive line is a bit of a question mark for Florida. The whole defense is a bit of one for Missouri. EDGE: EVEN
When Florida throws the ball: The Gators get back starting quarterback Luke Del Rio, who should give the aerial attack a boost. Brandon Powell and Antonio Calloway are gifted wide receivers who can burn anyone. Missouri expects to be without Logan Cheadle, so depth in the secondary is a bit of a concern. So is the fact that the Tigers have only nine sacks in five games. If they can't pressure Del Rio, it could turn into another long day. But Florida is only averaging 147.8 passing yards per game and just isn't an offense that really scares you. EDGE: EVEN
Special Teams: Both teams have very good punters. The Gators have the edge in place kicking with Eddy Piniero. The return games for both teams have potential, but neither has been a real difference maker so far this season. On the strength of Piniero, EDGE: FLORIDA
Intangibles: Both teams are coming off a bye. But Missouri is coming off a beating too. The Tigers are 2-0 against non-Power Five teams, 0-3 against Power Five competition. The Gators haven't faced a murderer's row, but do have wins over Kentucky and Vandy so far. Plus, Florida is at home. EDGE: FLORIDA
Coaching: There have been some early bumps for Barry Odom. He readily admits he's learning every week. Jim McElwain has an experience edge and therefore and overall edge. EDGE: FLORIDA
THE KEYS
1. HANG ON TO THE FOOTBALL. We refer not only to turnovers, but to holding on to the ball in general. Missouri held it for barely 17 minutes against LSU. That isn't going to beat anybody. Maybe find time in your arsenal of 100-mph fastballs to mix in some off-speed stuff too. The Tigers have to get some first downs. Sacrifice quantity of plays for quality.
2. GET OFF THE LINE. As mentioned above, LSU's defensive backs manhandled Missouri's receivers and made them look a whole lot like last year's group. Whether it's J'Mon Moore or somebody else, Missouri's receivers have to give Drew Lock somewhere to throw the ball that doesn't require putting it in a six-inch window. They did it against Georgia, but not against LSU.
3. PLAY FOUR QUARTERS. Missouri hasn't done it against a good team. They played about eight minutes against West Virginia, about 50 against Georgia and about zero in Baton Rouge. Missouri is at a talent deficit. The Tigers are two touchdown underdogs for a reason. It's going to take a full 60-minute effort if Mizzou is going to pull an upset.
THE PREDICTION
Don't judge Missouri solely on the LSU game. The (Mizzou) Tigers played poorly and the (LSU) Tigers played very well. Not many teams can match LSU's sheer physical talent. Offensively, Florida can't. But defensively it can. And while most of the focus has been on Missouri's defensive struggles, the offense is averaging just 15 points per game against Power Five competition and scored a third of those after the game was already decided. If Mizzou is going to pull the upset in this one, it's because Lock finally figured it out for four quarters against a big-time opponent. We don't think that happens this week. Go with Florida 24-7.
PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS
West Virginia 27, Mizzou 17
Mizzou 48, Eastern Michigan 10
Georgia 23, Mizzou 21
Mizzou 54, Delaware State 7
LSU 22, Mizzou 14
