In this series, we’ll look ahead at Mizzou’s opponents in the upcoming 2023-24 season. We’ll continue by previewing the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Date & Location: Feb. 10 at Mizzou Arena
2022-23 Record: 21-13 overall (8-10 SEC)
NCAA Tournament Finish: Lost in First Four to No. 11 seed Pittsburgh, 60-59
KEY LOSSES
Kimani Hamilton (transferred), William McNair (transferred), Eric Reed Jr. (graduated), Tyler Stevenson (graduated)
KEY RETURNERS
Dashawn Davis, D.J. Jeffries, Shawn Jones Jr., Cameron Matthews, Shakeel Moore, KeShawn Muphy, Martavious Russell, Tolu Smith
KEY INCOMING TRANSFERS
Jimmy Bell Jr. (West Virginia, 4.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 0.5 apg), Trey Fort (Howard College, 24.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.4 apg), Andrew Taylor (Marshall, 20.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.7 apg), Jaquan Scott (Salt Lake Community College, 16.8 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.6 apg)
KEY INCOMING FRESHMEN (rankings from Rivals.com)
Josh Hubbard (No. 107), Gai Chol (N/A), Adrian Myers (N/A)
OUTLOOK
Mississippi State had a rollercoaster of a season in Chris Jans’ first year as head coach. The Bulldogs got off to a perfect 11-0 start in non-conference play, including a win over Marquette. But they then lost eight of their next nine, getting off to a 1-7 start in SEC play. They bounced back with an overtime win against TCU in the Big 12/SEC Challenge and closed out the regular season with an 8-10 league record. MSU did just enough earn a bid to the Big Dance but weren’t able to reach the Round of 64, falling to Pittsburgh in their First Four game.
The team’s strengths were obvious. They ranked ninth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom, holding opponents to 45.8% shooting on 2-pointers, 31.1% on 3-pointers and forcing a turnover on 21.7% of possessions. They moved the ball well, with 59.1% of their field goals being assisted on, and they crashed the glass, securing 35.5% of available offensive rebounds.
But Mississippi State’s weaknesses stood out just as much. The Bulldogs were dead last in the country shooting 26.6% from beyond the arc. They weren’t much better from the free throw line, either, where they made just 64.7% of their foul shots.
The good news for Jans is that the strengths shouldn’t change much this year, as he returns his entire starting five, all of them seniors. The offense will continue to run through sixth-year big man Tolu Smith, an SEC Player of the Year candidate who dominates in the post, ranks fifth in the nation drawing 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes and pulls down rebounds at an incredibly high rate. The backcourt features guards Shakeel Moore and Dashawn Davis, each of whom generates a steal on 3.5% of defensive possessions. And Cameron Matthews and D.J. Jeffries are tough, physical wings that make life difficult for opponents both on the perimeter and inside.
Jans gets another trio of returning sophomores off the bench in Shawn Jones Jr., KeShawn Murphy and Martavious Russell. Murphy dealt with nagging injuries throughout last season but should start this year healthy and ready to go. All three could see a bump in minutes but they’ll have to compete with the newcomers Jans brought in to correct the teams’ weaknesses.
Andrew Taylor alone should keep the Bulldogs from being the worst-shooting team again, as he connected on 36.4% of his treys on 7.1 attempts per game. Taylor will provide a jolt of offense from the backcourt when needed, a type of player Jans didn’t have last year. Freshmen Josh Hubbard and Adrian Myers and junior college additions Trey Fort and Jaquan Scott (both of whom were ranked in the top six of their class by JucoRecruiting.com) should all provide better floor spacing as well — the question will be how much MSU is willing to sacrifice on defense.
Mississippi State established its path to success last year: drag opponents into rock fights on defense, dump the ball to Smith and get the rebound if he misses. Smith averaged 15.7 points per game while making 57.3% of his field goals despite constantly being double-teamed because of the Bulldogs’ lack of shooters. But for the team to take the next step, it has give Smith more room to operate on the block, or, in some circumstances, generate offense without Smith being involved at all. Smith’s backups, West Virginia transfer Jimmy Bell Jr. and freshman Gai Choi, are known more as rebounders than scorers.
Missouri split its season series with the Bulldogs last year, falling on the road and winning at home. The Tigers will only have to play them once this year inside Mizzou Arena. Shooting will clearly be a priority for MSU in the preseason. The Tigers will need to be prepared for the same stingy defense and a more diverse offense.
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