Schedule preview: Kentucky
We are inside of three months away from the start of the college football season, and while there are still several questions that need to be answered before Missouri kicks off its 2019 campaign (such as clearing up whether the team will be allowed to play in the postseason this year), it’s never too early to start taking a look at the schedule. In this series, we are going game-by-game to break down the Tigers' slate. Today, we preview the team's Week Eight game at Kentucky.
2018 season
Record: 10-3
Against Missouri: Win 15-14
Key losses: RB Benny Snell, TE C.J. Conrad, OL Bunchy Stallings, LB Josh Allen, LB Jordan Jones, S Darius West, S Mike Edwards, CB Derrick Baity
Key returners: QB Terry Wilson, WR Lynn Bowden, RB Asim Rose, LB Kash Daniel, DL Quinton Bohanna
Quick look
Behind the legs of running back Benny Snell Jr. and a dominant defense anchored by pass-rusher Josh Allen, Kentucky broke through for its first 10-win season in more than 40 years a season ago. The season included a miraculous comeback from a 14-3 deficit in the fourth quarter against Missouri — a game Tiger fans won’t soon forget. The Wildcats will lose both Snell and Allen, as well as six other starters from its defense a season ago, so a step back wouldn’t be surprising, but the team certainly has momentum entering 2019.
The biggest key for success this season for Kentucky will getting more out of a passing game that was largely nonexistent a season ago. Terry Wilson figures to return as the starting quarterback, and while his running ability adds a dynamic to the offense, opposing defenses didn’t exactly fear his arm. Wilson averaged just 145 passing yards per game last season. He never eclipsed 300 yards in a game, and three times he failed to record 100 yards. Incredibly, Kentucky won all three of those games, including a victory over Vanderbilt in which Wilson competed three passes for 18 yards. It seems unlikely the Wildcats will have the defense to win those type of games again this year. The good news for Kentucky fans is that last year’s leading receiver, Lynn Bowden Jr., is back for his junior season. Bowden, the only Kentucky player to catch more than 30 passes a year ago, had 745 yards and five touchdowns on 67 catches. He also served as a dangerous return man, scoring two touchdowns on punt returns last year, including one against Missouri.
Even though Snell is gone, the running game still figures to be the focal point of Kentucky’s offense. The Wildcats averaged just under 200 yards per game on the ground last year and ranked No. 35 nationally in yards per attempt. Asim Rose, who averaged 6.2 yards per carry while backing up Snell last year, could take over as the feature back this season. Kavosiey Smoke, who saw a bit of mop-up duty last year, should also play a larger role. Wilson’s legs will also be a factor after he rushed for 547 yards and four scores a season ago.
On defense, Kentucky not only has to replace Allen, who ranked second in the nation last season with 17 sacks, but its entire starting secondary. Thanks to its pass rush and coverage, the Wildcats ranked No. 18 nationally against the pass, giving up just 186.3 yards per game. Kentucky also excelled in the red zone, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on only 47.5 percent of red zone trips. As a result, the Wildcats ranked sixth nationally in scoring defense, surrendering 16.8 points per game. The unit will return both starters at defensive tackle, Quinton Bohanna and Calvin Taylor, as well as middle linebacker Kash Daniel, but it would probably be unfair to expect first year coordinator Brad White and the defense to replicate 2018’s success.
Players to watch
1. Terry Wilson, QB
As mentioned above, Wilson turned in several clunkers in the passing game last season. It’s unlikely Kentucky will be able to survive while being so one-dimensional this year. That said, Wilson found success in the fourth quarter against Missouri last year, sparking the Wildcats’ comeback victory. He threw for a season-high 267 yards against the Tigers. If he is able to replicate that success all game long against Missouri this time around, Kentucky should have a good chance to beat the Tigers for the fifth season in a row.
2. Asim Rose, RB
In replacing Snell, Rose will have massive shoes to fill. Snell ranked No. 6 nationally with 1,449 yards last season, and he scored 16 touchdowns on the ground. In his three-year career, he racked up 3,873 yards and 48 scores. Rose showed impressive flashes during his sophomore season, but there’s a difference between serving as a change-of-pace back and carrying the load to the degree that Snell did. Missouri stifled the Kentucky rushing attack in last season’s game, and it was no coincidence that the Wildcats scored just three offensive points in the first 59 minutes of the game. Kentucky’s offense will need the ground game to be its backbone again this season, and it’s up to Rose to make that happen.
3. Josh Paschal, DE
Speaking of filling big shoes, all Paschal and the rest of the Kentucky pass rushers have to replace is 88 tackles, 17 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss. Those are the numbers that Allen posted before being taken No. 7 overall in April’s NFL Draft. No returning Wildcat recorded more than five sacks and five tackles for loss. It will certainly take a group effort to replace Allen’s production, but Paschal, a former four-star recruit, brings the most talent of the group. He missed all of last season due to a diagnosis of malignant melanoma, so there will be some rust to knock off, but if he is able to live up to the billing and pressure opposing quarterbacks like Allen, it will make the entire Kentucky defense better.
Summary
Expect Missouri to bring a little extra juice to this matchup. Not only has Kentucky beaten the Tigers each of the past four seasons, but last year’s fourth-quarter collapse was undoubtedly the most painful loss of the season. With what looks on paper to be a strong run defense, Missouri should be well-equipped to end the losing streak this year, but as we saw last season, the offense will need to do its part as well against the Wildcats’ stingy defense. Even though Kentucky is expected to take a bit of a step back from last year, this road matchup looks to be the Tigers’ toughest test during the first two-thirds of the regular season.
Missouri's full 2019 schedule
8/31: at Wyoming (Read our preview here.)
9/7: West Virginia (Preview)
9/14: Southeast Missouri State
9/21: South Carolina (Preview)
10/5: Troy (Preview)
10/12: Ole Miss (Preview)
10/19: at Vanderbilt (Preview)
10/26: at Kentucky
11/9: at Georgia
11/16: Florida
11/23: Tennessee
11/29: at Arkansas*
* Game will be played in Little Rock