Schedule Preview: Florida
We are inside of three months away from the start of the college football season, and while there are still several questions that need to be answered before Missouri kicks off its 2019 campaign (such as clearing up whether the team will be allowed to play in the postseason this year), it’s never too early to start taking a look at the schedule. In this series, we are going game-by-game to break down the Tigers' slate. Today, we preview what figures to be the marquee home matchup of the year: Missouri's Week Ten contest against Florida.
2018 season
Record: 10-3
Against Missouri: Lost 38-17
Key Losses: RB Jordan Scarlett, OT Jawaan Taylor, OT Martez Ivey, DE Jachai Polite, LB Vosean Joseph, DB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson,
Key Returners: QB Feleipe Franks, RB Lamical Perine, WR Van Jefferson, WR Josh Hammond, WR/RB Kadarius Toney, C Nick Buchanan, DE Jabari Zuniga, LB David Reese, CB C.J. Henderson
Quick look
After Florida made one of the biggest improvements in college football from 2017 to 2018 under first-year head coach Dan Mullen, Gator fans have high hopes for this season. Florida brings back nearly all of its skill position players from an offense that Mullen raised from the dead last season, and its defense finished 2018 on a high note by smothering rival Florida State and holding Michigan to 15 points in a Peach Bowl victory. The success of the offense will once again hinge on quarterback Feleipe Franks, who made a huge leap between his sophomore and junior seasons. Franks completed just 54.6 percent of his passes in 2017 and threw nine touchdowns versus eight interceptions. Last season, his completion percentage jumped to 58.4 percent and he threw 24 touchdowns and six picks. For the most part, as Franks went, so went the Gators last season. Franks completed less than half his passes in three games last season, and Florida lost two of them. His worst performance coincided with the Gators’ worst game: Missouri’s 21-point victory in The Swamp, in which Franks went 9 of 22 for 84 yards before being benched.
Franks will have plenty of weapons to work with this season, though replacing four of five starters on the offensive line has to be a bit of a concern. Leading rusher Lamical Perine, who gained 826 yards and scored seven touchdowns last season, should be the workhorse this year. Plus, the Gators’ four leading receivers, Van Jefferson, Josh Hammond, Trevon Grimes and Kadarius Toney, all return this year as well. Toney adds a unique element to the offense — he carried the ball 21 times and caught 25 passes last year — and he could see his role increase as a junior. Florida’s offense was built on its running game last season, and while it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Gators continue to lean on the ground game, expect Mullen to progress toward a more even run-pass split in his second year at the helm.
Defensively, Florida lost a couple big names from last season but should have the depth to field a strong unit in 2019. The Gators ranked No. 20 nationally in scoring defense, allowing exactly 20 points per game, and they allowed just 29 total points in the final two games of last season. The Gators were elite against the pass, giving up just 180 yards per game through the air, though the team will miss defensive end Jachai Polite, who racked up 11 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss a year ago, and safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson this year. Leading tackler Vosean Joseph is also gone, though fellow linebacker David Reese should be able to take over as leader of the defense. The biggest key for the Florida defense will be creating as many momentum plays — sacks and turnovers — as it did last season. Florida ranked No. 11 nationally with 26 takeaways and No. 19 with 37 sacks a year ago.
Players to watch
1. Feleipe Franks, QB
While Franks’ improvement from 2017 to 2018 qualifies as nothing short of remarkable, he still has plenty of room for further development. Most importantly, he needs to be more consistent. As Missouri saw firsthand last season, when he’s off, he can struggle to complete almost every pass, and the Florida offense grinds to a halt. After replacing four starters on the offensive line, the Gators will likely also need Franks to function as less of a game manager and more a playmaker this season. Last year, for instance, Franks completed nine passes for 172 yards in a win over Tennessee and eight for 115 yards in a win over Colorado State. It’s difficult to envision the Gators having a strong enough rushing attack that they can afford to ask Franks to do so little this season.
2. Offensive line
While it will be nice to have Perine back, Florida’s offensive line obviously played a huge role in making the Gators averaging more than 213 yards per game on the ground last season. Plus, Franks’ improvement had a lot to do with his protection. In 2017, when Franks threw nine touchdowns and eight interceptions, Florida gave up 37 sacks — 12th-most in the country. Last year, the Gators allowed just 18 sacks, tied for 20th best in the country. Replacing four starters on the line will undoubtedly come with some growing pains, but the offense will need the new collection to at least come close to last season’s production if it has hopes of contending for an SEC title.
3. Jabari Zuniga, DE
Polite led Florida in both sacks and tackles for loss last season, so his departure creates a big hole on the defensive front. Zuniga, who ranked second in each of those categories as a junior, will need to take the lead in making up for his production. Zuniga finished with 6.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss a season ago. Pressuring opposing quarterbacks was perhaps the most important facet of Florida’s defense a season ago; in their 10 wins, the Gators averaged 3.5 sacks per game, and in their three losses, they averaged 0.7. Missouri’s offensive line will need to protect Kelly Bryant from Zuniga and company.
Summary
Missouri caught Florida in an ideal scenario last season. The Gators were coming off a physical rivalry matchup against Georgia, while the Tigers needed a win after a heartbreaking loss to Kentucky. Florida played its worst game of the season, Missouri played its best, and the game was out of reach by the fourth quarter. While Tiger fans can take some confidence from the fact that Missouri has beaten Florida two years in a row, another easy victory seems unlikely in 2019, even though the series returns to Columbia. For one thing, Florida will likely be out for revenge; plus, this year it’s Missouri that has to travel to face Georgia the week prior. The biggest keys in this matchup will be whether Missouri can avoid offensive miscues, as it did in last season’s matchup (the Tigers allowed just one sack and no turnovers), and generate pressure against Florida’s inexperienced offensive line in order to rattle Franks. Florida may not quite live up to the preseason top 10 hype, but beating the Gators will be no easy task.
Missouri's full 2019 schedule
8/31: at Wyoming (Read our preview here.)
9/7: West Virginia (Preview)
9/14: Southeast Missouri State
9/21: South Carolina (Preview)
10/5: Troy (Preview)
10/12: Ole Miss (Preview)
10/19: at Vanderbilt (Preview)
10/26: at Kentucky (Preview)
11/9: at Georgia (Preview)
11/16: Florida
11/23: Tennessee
11/29: at Arkansas*
* Game will be played in Little Rock