Ultimate Preview: Arkansas

When Mizzou runs: Missouri’s running game has become a force in the second half of this season. The Tigers topped 200 yards on the ground for third consecutive game and fourth time in the last five contests last week against Tennessee. Arkansas hasn’t been terrible against the run this season, but the Razorbacks just gave up 287 yards on 6.1 yards per carry to Mississippi State last week. Expect Damarea Crockett to be especially motivated to face his home state team (assuming he’s healthy enough to suit up). EDGE: Missouri

When Mizzou throws: Arkansas’ already-dreadful pass defense took a hit this week when Chad Morris suspended started defensive backs Ryan Pulley and Kamren Curl for the game. On the season, Arkansas ranks No. 96 against the pass, whereas Missouri ranks No. 27 in passing offense. Throw in the fact that it will be Senior Day for Drew Lock, and the Tigers figure to light up the scoreboard. EDGE: Missouri

When Arkansas runs: Missouri returned to its usual stout form against the run against Tennessee, holding the Volunteers to 82 yards and 2.9 yards per carry. Arkansas has flashed some potential with its ground game this season, but has struggled against the more talented defenses on its schedule. The last two weeks, the Razorbacks ran for 16 yards and 69 yards against LSU and Mississippi State, respectively. Expect Missouri to continue the theme. EDGE: Missouri

When Arkansas throws: Missouri has had some issues in pass coverage this season, but in the past few weeks, the Tigers have shown improvement in that area. Arkansas doesn’t figure to have enough weapons to reverse the trend. The Razorbacks have tried a few different quarterbacks this season, but junior Ty Storey figures to start on Friday. Storey has struggled to take care of the football this season. He’s thrown 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the year. EDGE: Missouri

Special Teams: Arkansas has been solid, but not sensational in special teams this season. It ranks in the top 40 nationally in both punt and kickoff return average on the season, though the Razorbacks haven’t scored a touchdown in either category yet. Placekicker Connor Limpert has been reliable, making all of his extra point attempts and 19 of 24 field goals on the season. Missouri, on the other hand, has been prone to major mishaps on special teams this season. The Tigers figure to have an edge in the punting game thanks to senior Corey Fatony, but they have now had four kicks blocked this season and rank second-to-last nationally in punt return average. Plus, this week, Richaud Floyd won’t be active to handle the kickoff or punt return duties. EDGE: Arkansas

Coaching: Chad Morris has proven his offensive pedigree both Clemson and SMU. But he inherited a tough situation at Arkansas and has struggled mightily in his first season, winning just two of his first 11 games. Barry Odom, meanwhile, has continued his November hot streak (he’s now 9-2 in the month as a head coach) and could move his career winning percentage above .500 for the first time ever with a win Friday. EDGE: Missouri

Intangibles: Arkansas has won two games all year and none in the SEC. Missouri is coming off a 50-17 domination of Tennessee, plus it’s Senior Day for the Tigers. As long as Missouri doesn’t completely overlook this matchup, it should be fine. EDGE: Missouri

THREE KEYS FOR MIZZOU

Don’t come in cocky. When players met with the media Monday, several brought up the fact that, two seasons ago, the roles between Arkansas and Missouri were reversed. The Razorbacks were bowl-bound with a 7-4 record while the Tigers had won just three games in Barry Odom’s first season. Missouri pulled off a 28-24 upset. The Tiger players said the team has used that game as a lesson this week, that it should throw out the records and expect Arkansas’ best shot, but sometimes that’s easier said than done for 19- to 22-year-old kids, especially coming off a big road win.

Take care of the football. Missouri nearly followed up its biggest win of the season, at Florida, with a home loss to Vanderbilt a few weeks ago in part because the Tigers came out flat, but in part because they lost the turnover margin. Missouri is certainly a more talented team than Arkansas, but turnovers are known as “the great equalizer” for a reason. Not many college football teams can overcome handing their opponents free points and momentum with turnovers.

Avoid special teams disaster. This has become a weekly staple in the “three keys” section, but the Tigers continue to at least flirt with disaster in the third phase of the game, so it shows up once again this week. As stated above, the one way Arkansas wins this game is if Missouri presents it with easy points and momentum. Certainly a return touchdown or a blocked kick would do just that for the Razorbacks.

GAME DAY OVER/UNDER

Drew Lock 4.5 TD passes: Mitchell under/Gabe over

Mizzou 210 rushing yards: Mitchell over/Gabe over

Johnathon Johnson 6.5 receptions: Mitchell over/Gabe under

Corey Fatony 3.5 punts: Mitchell under/Gabe under

Arkansas 350 total yards: Mitchell under/Gabe over

PLAYERS OF THE GAME

OFFENSE

Mitchell: Drew Lock

Gabe: Drew Lock

DEFENSE

Mitchell: Cale Garrett

Gabe: Terez Hall

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION

Mitchell: 45-16 Missouri

Gabe: 47-21 Missouri

SEC PICKS

So far this season

Mitchell: 33-25-1

Gabe: 33-25-1

Mississippi State (-9.5) at Ole Miss

Mitchell: Mississippi State

Gabe: Mississippi State

Georgia Tech (+17) at Georgia

Mitchell: Georgia Tech

Gabe: Georgia

Florida (-4) at Florida State

Mitchell: Florida

Gabe: Florida State

Auburn (+24) at Alabama

Mitchell: Alabama

Gabe: Alabama

Tennessee (+3.5) at Vanderbilt

Mitchell: Tennessee

Gabe: Vanderbilt

South Carolina (+25) at Clemson

Mitchell: South Carolina

Gabe: Clemson

Kentucky (-17.5) at Louisville

Mitchell: Kentucky

Gabe: Kentucky

LSU (+1) at Texas A&M

Mitchell: LSU

Gabe: LSU