Published Oct 26, 2019
Game Day Central: Mizzou vs Kentucky
Gabe DeArmond & Mitchell Forde
Staff
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For every Tiger game day this year, we'll get you up to speed before kickoff in Game Day Central. We'll catch you up on all the news of the week, hit on the keys of the game, provide audio and video previews and offer up some predictions. Here is everything you need to know about tonight's game against Kentucky.

                                            KICKOFF INFORMATION

TIME: 6:39 p.m. Central

LOCATION: Kroger Field (capacity 61,000), Lexington, KY

TV: SEC Network (Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, Cole Cubelic)

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network -- Click here for a list of affiliates

POINT SPREAD: Mizzou by 11

SERIES: Kentucky leads 6-3

LAST MEETING: Kentucky won 15-14 in 2018

                                                   AUDIO PREVIEW

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                                  GAME WEEK HEADLINES 

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                                 BREAKING DOWN THE MATCHUPS

When Missouri has the ball:

It’s hard to have much confidence in a Tiger offense that just scored 14 points (with seven of those coming as a result of a takeaway) against a Vanderbilt defense that entered last week ranked last in the SEC in every major statistical category — especially considering up next is a Kentucky defense that held Missouri without a first down for the second half last season. The Wildcats don’t quite have the same star power as they did a year ago, but their defense has been much better than the Commodores’. Kentucky is allowing just under 24 points per game this season. It has been especially good against the pass, allowing just 183 yards per game through the air, which ranks No. 20 nationally, but susceptible to the run. The Wildcats’ past four opponents have averaged 226.5 yards per game on the ground. Missouri’s inability to run the ball, especially on early downs, hampered the entire offense against Vanderbilt, and considering Kentucky just held Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm to 35 yards in the air, the Tigers better be able to run the ball Saturday and avoid obvious passing situations. ADVANTAGE: Kentucky

When Kentucky has the ball

The Wildcats have had a brutal rash of injuries on offense, most notably at quarterback. Returning starter Terry Wilson suffered a season-ending injury in Week Two, then backup Sawyer Smith got injured a few weeks later. So, for the past two weeks, Kentucky has started wide receiver Lynn Bowden Jr. behind center. Bowden is a dynamic playmaker — Missouri fans might remember he returned a punt for a touchdown in the fourth quarter of last season’s meeting — and he played quarterback in high school, but his passing has left a bit to be desired. Bowden completed just two of 15 passes for 17 yards against Georgia. On the season, he is 12 of 30 for 134 yards and a touchdown. Bowden is a running threat, and when combined with tailbacks Asim Rose and Kavosiey Smoke, Kentucky has at least been decent on the ground in recent weeks. The Wildcats rushed for 330 yards in a win over Arkansas and 160 yards against Georgia’s stout defensive front. Look for Missouri to sell out to stop the run, and as long as the Tigers don’t miss a bunch of tackles, their defense should have the upper hand. ADVANTAGE: Missouri

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                                       KEYS TO A MISSOURI WIN

1. Get the ground game going. As stated above, Kentucky has been susceptible to the run this season. Plus, we saw last week how important it is for Missouri to run the ball successfully on first and second downs and not put Kelly Bryant behind the chains. If Missouri can get Larry Rountree III going, put itself in favorable downs and distances and sustain a few drives, it will open up the rest of the playbook.

2. Don’t let Bowden break a big play. No matter where he lines up, Bowden is an explosive play waiting to happen. He’s also by far Kentucky’s biggest scoring threat. The Wildcats will look to give him the ball as a quarterback, a receiver, a punt returner and possibly even a tailback in hopes that he can break off a couple big plays. If Missouri is able to keep him from doing so, Kentucky’s offense is likely not good enough to sustain drives. But if Bowden can break free for a long score or two, the Wildcat defense may be good enough to keep them in the game.

3. Cut down on penalties. Penalties hurt Missouri on offense, defense and special teams against Vanderbilt. In another game that figures to be low scoring, field position could be critical. If the Tigers aren’t good enough to beat Vanderbilt while committing 12 penalties for 120 yards, they certainly can’t expect to repeat that performance and beat Kentucky in Lexington.

                                       GAME DAY PROP BETS*

*You cannot actually bet on these and even if you can, we are not encouraging you to do so. This is for entertainment purposes only.

Kentucky passing attempts 9.5 — Mitchell over, Gabe under

Tucker McCann made field goals 1.5 — Mitchell over, Gabe under

Combined total offensive yardage 750 — Mitchell under, Gabe under

Albert O receptions 3.5 — Mitchell over, Gabe over

Mitchell's bed time 2:30 am Eastern — Mitchell over :( , Gabe over


                                   POWERMIZZOU PREDICTIONS

Mitchell Forde: Let’s get this out of the way first: If Missouri plays as uninspired or sloppy as it has during its first two road games of this season, it will lose. Kentucky may not have much going on offense right now, but they certainly enter this game in better shape than Vanderbilt a week ago. Plus, the Wildcats are used to beating Missouri. No player on either roster was in college the last time the Tigers beat the Wildcats in 2014, which could come into play down the stretch of a close game. All that said, however, Barry Odom’s teams tend to play their best when things look the most bleak, and Missouri’s defense should have a field day against Kentucky’s limited offense. I think this game will be ugly, but the Tiger offense finds a couple big plays that lead to touchdowns and the defense holds on. Missouri 23, Kentucky 13

Player of the game: Albert Okwuegbunam

Gabe DeArmond: No way I can even pretend to have a feel for this game. I picked Mizzou by 36 last week and it lost. So let's not pretend I have a clue what I'm doing. I could see the spiral continuing. I could see the trend of Barry Odom bringing a team back from the edge of death to play its best game continuing. I could see Kelly Bryant and Larry Rountree III getting shut down and Missouri's offense failing to score a touchdown. I could see the Tigers starting fast and running away from Kentucky. All that is a prelude to me saying I'm making a pick because I have to, but I do it with no conviction and base it on pretty much nothing. Mizzou 20, Kentucky 9.

Missouri Player of the Game: Nick Bolton