Game Day Central: Mizzou vs Florida

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TIME: 11:00 a.m. Central

LOCATION: Memorial Stadium (capacity 62,621), Columbia, MO

TV: CBS (Carter Blackburn, Aaron Taylor, Rick Neuheisel)

RADIO: Tiger Radio Network -- Click here for a list of affiliates

POINT SPREAD: Florida by 7

SERIES: Missouri leads 5-3

LAST MEETING: Missouri won 38-17 in 2018

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Podcast: Episode 290 | Walljasper: What Just Happened? |

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When Missouri has the ball:

Derek Dooley said it best this week. Florida’s defense has been very good this season, but this isn’t so much about the Gators as it is Missouri. If the Tigers get Kelly Bryant back and execute like they did the first half of the season, they should be able to move the ball. If they fail to open up running lanes, catch passes and create explosive plays in the passing game as they have the past three weeks, they may not score. Of course, Florida will not make it easy. The Gators’ boast a balanced defense, ranking No. 23 nationally against the pass and No. 24 against the run. They rank ninth in scoring defense, allowing just 15 points per game. The strength of Florida’s defense has been its defensive line. The Gators lead the SEC in both sacks and tackles for loss. The first priority for Missouri will be getting better play out of its offensive line, especially in the running game, then finding a big play from a skill position player. Based on the results the past three weeks, though, it would seem foolish to count on that happening. ADVANTAGE: Florida

When Florida has the ball

Florida has struggled to run the ball all season, and it would come as a bit of a surprise if that changes Saturday. This matchup will likely come down to the ability of quarterback Kyle Trask to find open receivers against Missouri’s stingy secondary. Trask took over for starter Feleipe Franks in Week Three and has been solid, completing nearly 67 percent of his passes for 19 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has a full stable of playmakers at his disposal, too, with three wideouts who have caught more than 25 passes on the season and tight end Kyle Pitts, who leads all SEC tight ends with 42 catches for 528 yards. Because of the number of weapons at his disposal, more than just Missouri’s corners will be tested in coverage. Don’t be surprised if Trask and coach Dan Mullen spread the ball around until they find a matchup they like. One final possibility to keep an eye on: backup quarterback Emory Jones has made the occasional appearance since Franks went down, often as a short-yardage runner. Given Missouri’s struggles against mobile quarterbacks this season, it wouldn’t come as a shock if Mullen runs a few extra plays for the dual-threat Jones. ADVANTAGE: Push

1. Stretch the field vertically. As you’ve no doubt seen discussed this week if you read our message board, perhaps the single biggest difference between Missouri’s offense from last year to this year is an inability to connect on deep passing plays. Drew Lock completed 20 of 64 passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield in 2018 for 14 touchdowns and one interception. This season, Kelly Bryant is 10 of 27 for three touchdowns and two interceptions on passes of 20 yards or more. The fault is not all on Bryant — the Tiger receivers certainly share in the blame — but the result has been that opposing defenses have been able to load the box, sell out to stop the run and jump short passing routes. Missouri has to hit on a couple deep passes against Florida to create some room for the rest of its offense to operate.

2. Pressure Trask. As mentioned above, Florida has not run the ball well all season. Assuming Missouri’s defense can continue that trend, Florida’s offense will go as far as Trask can take it. The best way to rattle Trask this season has been to pressure him. According to PFF College, when Trask has had a clean pocket this season, he has completed 70.3 percent of his passes, averaged 8.8 yards per attempt and thrown 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. When under pressure, his completion percentage drops to 50 percent, his yards per attempt to 7.2, and he has thrown two touchdowns and two picks. Missouri has not gotten much pass rush out of its defensive line, but has had some success blitzing linebackers and safeties this season. If the Tigers do that against Florida, however, the blitzes need to get home, or else the secondary will be put in a tough spot.

3. Create turnovers. During Missouri’s five-game winning streak, the Tiger defense went on an unreal run of not only creating turnovers but turning them into points. Eleven of the team’s 14 turnovers on the season came during that stretch, the defense either scored or gave the offense the ball in the red zone with most of them. While that never really appeared sustainable, Missouri’s best hope Saturday is that the defense creates momentum and easy scoring opportunities for the struggling offense, if not scoring itself. Who knows, maybe returning to Faurot Field will do the trick.

*You cannot actually bet on these and even if you can, we are not encouraging you to do so. This is for entertainment purposes only.

Larry Rountree 17 carries — Mitchell under, Gabe over

Kelly Bryant 200 total offense — Mitchell under, Gabe under

Tucker McCann 7.5 punts — Mitchell over, Gabe over

Kyle Trask 2.5 total touchdowns — Mitchell under, Gabe under

Nick Bolton 10 tackles — Mitchell over, Gabe over

Mitchell Forde: I don’t think Missouri has quit on this season. With Kelly Bryant back and the team returning home, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers keep this one close for a while. The problem is, Florida’s defense is really good. Its defensive line, especially, could really create issues for the Tigers’ struggling front five. Missouri’s offense has given me no reason to believe it can overcome that. Also, while a cold, sleepy 11 a.m. kickoff might seem on the surface like a recipe for a letdown from the Gators, I have to think Florida shows up motivated after losing big to Missouri the past two seasons. And as long as Florida avoids things like sloppy turnovers or blown defensive assignments, I don’t think Missouri can score quite enough to hang in this one. Florida 20, Missouri 10.

Player of the game: Jordan Elliott

Gabe DeArmond: I'll admit to defaulting to a little bit of a cynical, snarky pick here. No matter who the quarterback is, I just don't have much faith in the Missouri offense. The game plan should be to give Larry Rountree III 25 carries, limit Florida's possessions, shorten the game and hope to win with a couple of offensive scores. But that should have been the game plan the last couple of times too, and it wasn't. Paraphrasing Derek Dooley, the Tiger offense has been good and bad against all kinds of defenses this season. But the last three weeks, it's just been bad. Until I see proof otherwise, I can't pick it to be anything but that. Florida 17, Missouri 2

Missouri Player of the Game: Tyree Gillespie