Ultimate Preview: Alabama

When Mizzou runs: Missouri’s running game has roared to life in recent weeks. All three of the Tiger running backs averaged at least 7.4 yards per carry against South Carolina. It’s traditionally not easy to move Alabama’s defensive front, but the Crimson Tide have allowed an uncharacteristic 134 yards per game on the ground so far this season. A good chunk of that has come in the second half of games, when Alabama has held a commanding lead, but still, this might be the one area in which Alabama isn’t perfect. EDGE: Push

When Mizzou throws: Drew Lock entered this season with massive expectations on his shoulders, and he lived up to them against Wyoming and Tennessee-Martin. But in Missouri’s two SEC games, Lock has struggled, completing less than 50 percent of his passes while throwing three interceptions and no touchdowns. The Crimson Tide will provide his toughest challenge yet. Alabama ranks second nationally in interceptions this season, fifth in yards allowed per attempt and 10th in opponents’ passer rating. To make matters worse for Missouri, Lock will likely once again be without his leading receiver, Emanuel Hall, as well as fellow senior Nate Brown. EDGE: Alabama

When Alabama runs: Alabama ranks No. 1 in scoring offense, but only No. 27 in rushing offense. (Side note: It feels ridiculous to type “only” when a team is averaging 222 yards per game on the ground, but by Alabama’s standards, that’s nothing special.) Missouri’s defense, meanwhile, has actually been good against the run this year, giving up just 107 yards per game. That ranks 15th nationally. If Nick Saban really wanted to, the Crimson Tide could probably pound the rock all game and wear down Missouri’s defensive front. But because of the mismatch in the passing game (more on that shortly), they might not need to. EDGE: Alabama

When Alabama throws: The perennial question mark for Alabama’s teams under Saban has been quarterback play. But this season, Tua Tagovailoa is not just off to a good start by Alabama standards, he’s off to an historic start. Tagovailoa has thrown 18 touchdowns this season, versus zero interceptions. He is currently on pace to break the NCAA single-season records in passer rating (Tua’s is currently 258.40), completion percentage (75.2) and yards per attempt (14.8). He has passed for 1,495 yards without taking a single snap during the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the Missouri defense has surrendered a total of 821 yards and six touchdowns to the combination of David Blough and Michael Scarnecchia. I’ll be interested to see which total is higher by the end of this game: Tagovailoa’s incompletions or touchdowns. EDGE: Alabama

Special Teams: For the fourth consecutive week, Missouri will face return men who pose a threat to take a punt or kickoff to the house. Alabama freshman Jaylen Waddle is averaging nearly 20 yards per punt return this season, which ranks sixth nationally. Against Louisiana in Week Four, he returned a punt 63 yards for a score. Joshua Jacobs handles the kickoff return duties, and he took a return 77 yards for a score against Louisville in Week One. Missouri, meanwhile, ranks No. 128 out of 130 teams in punt return average, at 0.2 yards per return. The one advantage Missouri may have is in the kicking game, after Tucker McCann made five of six field goals, including a career-long 57-yarder, against South Carolina. EDGE: Alabama

Coaching: In 11 seasons at Alabama, Nick Saban’s teams have gone 133-20. The Tide have won five SEC championships and five national titles in that span. They’ve appeared in all four iterations of the College Football Playoff to date. Saban is clearly the best active coach in the country and has made a compelling case to go down as the best ever. EDGE: Alabama

Intangibles: Alabama has won eight consecutive games, including last season’s national title game. The Crimson Tide’s average margin of victory this season is exactly 40 points. Missouri enters the game after two straight losses, the most recent of which saw the Tigers blow a nine-point halftime lead and a one-point lead with less than two minutes remaining. Need we say more? EDGE: Alabama

THREE KEYS FOR MIZZOU

1. Don’t beat yourself. After each of the Tigers’ past two games, players have said they felt like the team beat itself with penalties, turnovers and missed assignments. Missouri isn’t talented enough to beat Alabama if the two teams both play well, but if for some reason the Tide have an off day, the Tigers could take advantage if they play a clean game. Plus, if Missouri manages to keep the score close, who knows how Alabama will react to a fourth quarter with some actual suspense? It’s certainly not likely, but one thing’s for sure: If Missouri makes the same mistakes it did against Georgia and South Carolina, an upset is impossible.

2. Find some big plays. The recipe for pulling an upset of this proportion calls for a handful of big, momentum-swinging plays. Maybe Missouri can generate a couple turnovers and score on one. Maybe Drew Lock can connect on a bomb touchdown to Kam Scott. On the majority of snaps, Alabama is going to be the better team, but if Missouri can get lucky once or twice, take advantage of the Crimson Tide’s mistakes and keep the score close, an upset may not be impossible.

3. Stay healthy. In all likelihood, Missouri is going to lose. That’s okay; no one came into this season expecting to beat Alabama. But the Tigers can’t afford to let this loss wreck the rest of the season by damaging the players’ physical health or psyche beyond repair. Barry Odom is probably going to need another second-half surge to assure the administration that he’s the right long-term coach for the job, and losing starters in this game would make that task even more difficult.

GAME DAY OVER/UNDER

Tua Tagovailoa 4.5 passing TD — Mitchell over, Gabe under

Mizzou rushing yards 99.5 — Mitchell over, Gabe over

First half spread 29.5 — Mitchell over, Gabe over

Bama total offense 599.5 — Mitchell over, Gabe over

Bama TFL 6.5 — Mitchell under, Gabe over

Tua fourth quarter snaps played 0.5 — Mitchell under, Gabe under

PLAYERS OF THE GAME

OFFENSE

Mitchell: Larry Rountree III

Gabe: Larry Rountree III

DEFENSE

Mitchell: Cale Garrett

Gabe: N/A

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION

Mitchell: 59-26 Alabama

Gabe: 52-20 Alabama

AROUND THE SEC

SEASON TOTALS (ATS)

Mitchell: 12-12

Gabe: 12-12

Texas A&M (-2.5) at South Carolina

Mitchell A&M

Gabe A&M

Ole Miss (-6.5) at Arkansas

Mitchell Ole Miss

Gabe Arkansas

Auburn (15.5) vs Tennessee

Mitchell Auburn

Gabe Auburn

Florida (-7) at Vanderbilt

Mitchell Florida

Gabe Florida

Georgia (-7.5) at LSU

Mitchell LSU

Gabe Georgia