Every Saturday morning, we'll start your game day with a complete guide to Mizzou's contest that day. We break down the matchups, make some predictions and keep you up with all the action in the SEC.
GAME DAY ESSENTIALS
Opponent: Florida Gators (SEC)
Record: 6-2, 4-2 SEC
Last Game: Lost to Georgia 36-17
Kickoff: 3:00 p.m. Central
TV: SEC Network (Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, Cole Cubelic)
Radio: Tiger Network (Mike Kelly/Howard Richards/Chris Gervino)
Series Record: Missouri leads 4-3
Last Meeting: 45-16 Missouri in 2017
GAME WEEK COVERAGE
Following the Future | Tigers change after NCAA loss | Hoops Scholarship Chart
Football Scholarship Chart | Ten Monday Thoughts | A look at the latest targets
Monday Q&A | Tigers win easy exhibition | Tuesday's Top Tigers | Nance visits MU
Recruiting Focus: OL | Recruiting Q&A | Video: Week 9 Media Day | Tuesday Notebook
Early Guess: Mizzou Hoops | Mizzou leads for Florida LB | This Week's Mailbag
Wednesday Q&A | Akial Byers Emerges on DL | Podcast Previews the Gators
Video: Hoops Media Day | Mark Smith Excited to Start | What Just Happened?
PFF: Inside the Matchups | Enter the Chamber | Predict the Score
THE MATCHUPS
When Mizzou runs: Florida’s success has been built on its strong defense this season, but the Gators haven’t been great against the run. Other than in the second half against Kentucky (when its entire offense shut down), Missouri has generally run the ball well. Considering Drew Lock’s struggles against SEC defenses this season, look for the Tigers to establish its three-headed rushing attack of Larry Rountree III, Damarea Crockett and Tyler Badie early in order to open things up for Lock in the passing game. EDGE: Missouri
When Mizzou throws: As mentioned above, Lock’s struggles against conference opponents continued last week. Lock threw for just 165 yards and no touchdowns against Kentucky’s stingy defense. In four SEC games this season, Lock has thrown one touchdown and five interceptions. He will face another tough test this week, as Florida’s athletic secondary has been successful at shutting down opponents’ passing games. The Gators’ rank 12th nationally against the pass, allowing an average of 170.1 yards per game through the air. Missouri might get wide receiver Emanuel Hall back for this matchup, but even if it does, Hall will likely be limited by the groin injury that caused him to sit out the past four games. EDGE: Florida
When Florida runs: Missouri excelled against the run against Kentucky, holding the Wildcats to just 2.6 yards per carry. If the Tigers can replicate that performance, it would be an advantage against Florida. The Gators’ offensive strength has been its run game this season, as they average 193.9 yards per game on the ground. EDGE: Missouri
When Florida throws: Florida coach Dan Mullen built his reputation as a quarterback whisperer by developing the likes of Tim Tebow and Dak Prescott. While the Gators’ passing game has improved from last season, quarterback Feleipe Franks has still struggled at times. Florida ranks No. 98 nationally in passing offense, averaging 197.8 yards per game. Franks appeared to have turned a corner in the past month or so, as he threw seven touchdowns and three interceptions in four straight wins over Tennessee, Mississippi State, LSU and Vanderbilt. But then Georgia’s vaunted defense shut Franks down last week, holding Florida to just 105 yards through the air. That said, Missouri’s pass defense has made virtually every quarterback it’s faced this season look good. EDGE: Florida
Special Teams: Florida placekicker Evan McPherson has been the best in the SEC so far this season, making 12 of 13 field goals with a long of 48 yards, as well as all 27 of his extra point attempts. The Gators also have a threat in the return game in Freddie Swain, who ranks 12th nationally in punt return average and has a touchdown on a return this season. Missouri has had solid play from kicker Tucker McCann and punter Corey Fatony, but aside from that, the Tigers have been a disaster on special teams this year. Andy Hill’s unit has had a punt blocked, two field goals blocked, allowed a punt return for a touchdown and ranks No. 126 in punt return average on the season. EDGE: Florida
Coaching: Mullen established himself as one of the premier offensive minds in the country as Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator when Florida won its back-to-back national titles, then showed he can manage a program by compiling a 69-46 record. Winning in Starkville is not easy. Missouri’s Barry Odom, meanwhile, is fighting to retain his job. EDGE: Florida
Intangibles: Florida will enter this game off a deflating loss to rival Georgia, so there is potential for the Gators to have a bit of a letdown. However, Missouri suffered a much more devastating loss when it blew a 14-3 fourth quarter lead against Kentucky. Even though the coaches and players talked all week about using the loss as fuel, it’s tough to rebound from that type of collapse. Playing in the Swamp could also give Florida an edge. EDGE: Florida
THREE KEYS FOR MIZZOU
1. Establish the ground game. Florida’s strength this season has been its defense, but the Gators have at times been vulnerable against the run this season. If Missouri can consistently pick up first downs with its ground game and force Florida to bring more defenders into the box, it could open up the secondary a bit for Drew Lock and the struggling Missouri passing attack.
2. Limit big plays through the air. Suggesting Missouri’s defense could completely shut down Florida’s passing game is probably unrealistic. The Tigers haven’t stopped anybody through the air in conference play, and while Feleipe Franks has had his fair share of struggles in his career, he’s been far better than Kentucky’s Terry Wilson this season, who just threw for nearly 300 yards against Missouri. Franks is going to complete some passes, but if the Missouri secondary can avoid getting beat deep or leaving receivers wide open for easy scores, it would be a victory. The Tigers will look to embody the “bend, don’t break” cliche, as the defense has actually been solid in the red zone this season.
3. Don’t give away points on special teams. Missouri was never likely to beat Alabama, but in their other three losses this season, the Tigers have handed its opponent points on special teams. Georgia blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown. Against South Carolina, an alleged miscommunication resulted in a surprise onside kick, which gave the Gamecocks a short field and resulted in a touchdown. Tucker McCann also missed a 25-yard field goal. Kentucky blocked a field goal and flipped the momentum of last week’s game when it scored a touchdown on a punt return. Missouri isn’t talented enough to overcome those types of errors against SEC competition.
GAME DAY OVER/UNDER
Mizzou 250 yards total offense: Mitchell over/Gabe under
Florida 250 yards passing: Mitchell over/Gabe over
Corey Fatony punts 6.5: Mitchell under/Gabe over
Emanuel Hall receiving yards 49.5: Mitchell under/Gabe Under
Threads to fire Barry Odom by the end of the first quarter 2.5: Mitchell over/Gabe over
PLAYERS OF THE GAME
Offensive MVP
Mitchell: Larry Rountree III
Gabe: Tyler Badie
Defensive MVP
Mitchell: Cale Garrett
Gabe: Terez Hall
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION
Mitchell: Florida 30, Missouri 23
Gabe: Florida 23, Missouri 10
AROUND THE SEC
Against the spread this season
Mitchell 19-19
Gabe 17-21
Georgia -9.5 at Kentucky
Mitchell: Georgia
Gabe: Georgia
Texas A&M +4 at Auburn
Mitchell: A&M
Gabe: A&M
Louisiana Tech +22.5 at Mississippi State
Mitchell: Mississippi State
Gabe: Mississippi State
South Carolina -1 at Ole Miss
Mitchell: South Carolina
Gabe: South Carolina
Alabama -13.5 at LSU
Mitchell: LSU
Gabe: Alabama
