Every Saturday morning, we'll start your game day with a complete guide to Mizzou's contest that day. We break down the matchups, make some predictions and keep you up with all the action in the SEC.
GAME DAY ESSENTIALS
Opponent: Memphis Tigers (AAC)
Record: 4-3, 1-3 American
Last Game: Lost to UCF 31-30
Kickoff: 3:00 p.m. Central
TV: SEC Network (Mike Morgan, DJ Shockley, Dawn Davenport)
Radio: Tiger Network (Mike Kelly/Howard Richards/Chris Gervino)
Series Record: Mizzou leads 2-1
Last Meeting: 27-17 Missouri in 1999
GAME WEEK COVERAGE
Following the Future | Looking at the latest football targets
Monday Mizzou Thoughts | 2020 QB hearing from Mizzou | Tuesday's Top Tigers
VIDEO: Week 7 Media Day | Media Day Notebook | Inside Drew Lock's Struggles
Mailbag: 41st Edition | The Case Against Change | Coach Analysis: Jalani Williams
Podcast Previews Memphis | What Just Happened? | PFF: Inside the Matchups
THE MATCHUPS
When Mizzou runs
With the exception of last week’s matchup against Alabama’s stout defensive front, Missouri’s rushing attack has come alive in recent weeks. The trio of Larry Rountree III, Damarea Crockett and Tyler Badie racked up 172 yards on the ground against Georgia, then exploded for 286 against South Carolina. Memphis, meanwhile, has struggled to stop the run. The Tigers allowed Navy’s option attack to rush for 264 yards, then was gashed by Tulane for 318 yards in an upset three weeks ago. EDGE: Missouri
When Mizzou throws
Memphis has been better against the pass than the run this season. It has allowed an average of 193.4 yards per game through the air, which ranks 33rd nationally. However, that statistic is a bit skewed by early games against Mercer, an overmatched FBS opponent, and Navy, which attempted just six passes. Drew Lock hasn’t been great in Missouri’s past three games, but throughout his college career, he has feasted on lesser competition. Expect him to look to get back on track with a big game against Memphis. EDGE: Missouri
When Memphis runs
Missouri has been solid against the run this season, but the numbers indicate Memphis has even better at running. Memphis is averaging a whopping 275.4 yards per game on the ground. That ranks fifth nationally, and three of the teams in front of Memphis — Army, Navy and Georgia Tech — run the triple option. Memphis leads the nation in yards per rushing attempt at 7.3. That success on the ground has a lot to do with tailback Darrell Henderson. The junior leads the country in rushing yards per game (161.9), yards per carry (10.3), yards from scrimmage per game (189.1) and total touchdowns (15). If Missouri’s defensive front can slow down Henderson, its chances of winning will certainly improve. EDGE: Memphis
When Memphis throws
First-year starting quarterback Brady White has emerged as a solid compliment to Henderson. White hasn’t quite put up the numbers of former Memphis gunslingers Paxton Lynch and Riley Ferguson, but he’s taken care of the football and been efficient. White is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt on the season, which is tied for seventh nationally, and he’s thrown just one interception. The struggles of Missouri’s secondary, especially against the deep ball, have been well-documented, and we don’t expect them to be corrected overnight. EDGE: Memphis
Special Teams
On paper, neither team stands out in the return game. Memphis ranks fourth-to-last nationally in kickoff return average. Missouri ranks second-to-last in punt return average. Missouri should have a slight edge in the kicking game, though. Memphis’ Riley Patterson has been perfect from inside 40 yards on the season, but Tucker McCann has been money lately (with the exception of one kick in a downpour). McCann should be confident after making a game-winning field goal at Purdue, a 57-yard kick to take the lead at South Carolina and a 43-yarder at Alabama. EDGE: Missouri
Coaching
Mike Norvell has generally drawn praise for continuing the momentum from Justin Fuente’s regime at Memphis, and deservedly so. Memphis went a combined 18-8 in Norvell’s first two seasons on the job. But this season has been a bit of a step backward, as the Tigers were dominated by both Navy and Tulane. Worst of all, Memphis horrifically botched its clock management during a late drive against Central Florida last week. The Tigers, trailing by one point, were called for an illegal motion penalty that resulted in a 10-second runoff, then White threw a pass in bounds and short of the first down marker with less than 10 seconds remaining, and the clock ran out before Memphis could get another snap off. That didn’t reflect well on Norvell. Barry Odom certainly hasn’t been immune to criticism in recent weeks, but he should have his team ready to go against his former program. EDGE: Missouri
Intangibles
Often, when a Group of Five team travels to an SEC venue, analysts describe the game as the underdog’s Super Bowl, meaning it’s the most important game on the schedule and the favorite should expect it to pull out all the stops. But Memphis had an arguably bigger game last week when it hosted unbeaten Central Florida. The devastating fashion in which Memphis lost, blowing a 30-14 halftime lead and squandering an opportunity in Central Florida territory on the final drive, would suggest Memphis is due for a bit of a letdown. Of course, Missouri isn’t exactly coming into this game with a ton of momentum, either, having lost three games in a row, but playing on Homecoming in a game it absolutely cannot lose, we’ll give the home Tigers the advantage. EDGE: Missouri
THREE KEYS FOR MIZZOU
1. Contain Darrell Henderson. Henderson might be explosive enough to beat Missouri on his own with a few well-timed big plays. In addition to the categories listed above, he also leads the nation in plays of over 40 yards — he’s made 11 through the first seven games. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters has talked all season about the importance of limiting explosive plays from opponents, and Henderson figures to be the most likely source of those plays for Memphis, both as a runner as a receiver.
2. Get Drew Lock back on track. Lock started the season strong, but in the past three weeks, the struggles against good competition that have characterized his college career have returned. Lock has thrown just one touchdown during the team’s three-game losing streak. Meanwhile, he’s thrown five interceptions and lost two fumbles. Several factors have contributed into Lock’s rough stretch — most notably, the absence of Emanuel Hall, who won’t play against Memphis — but the fact is, Missouri is going to go as far as its senior quarterback takes it this season. A big game against Memphis could rekindle Lock’s confidence heading into five straight conference games to close the season.
3. Avoid the bad quarter. Against South Carolina, Missouri allowed one or two mistakes (and a rainstorm) to snowball into a disastrous nine-minute stretch, during which it went from nine points ahead to eight points behind. The Tigers likely weren’t ever going to beat Alabama, but after the Crimson Tide scored a touchdown in the second quarter, Missouri fumbled, then gave up a touchdown in one play, then punted, then gave up a 57-yard completion that led to a field goal. Once again, the Tiger were outscored 17-0 in a single quarter. Missouri should be the more talented team against Memphis, but not to the point that it won’t ever face adversity. This team needs to prove, to itself and others, that it can respond positively rather than let one or two bad plays multiply into a bad quarter.
GAME DAY OVER/UNDER
Drew Lock 300 pass yards: Mitchell Over, Gabe Over
Mizzou 200 rushing yards: Mitchell Over, Gabe Over
Memphis 450 total offense: Mitchell Over, Over
Missouri sacks 1.5: Mitchell Under, Gabe Under
Total punts 4.5: Mitchell Under, Gabe Over
PLAYERS OF THE GAME
OFFENSE
Mitchell: Tyler Badie
Gabe: Drew Lock
DEFENSE
Mitchell: Terez Hall
Gabe: DeMarkus Acy
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION
Mitchell: Missouri 41, Memphis 31 (Note: I recently had a dream in which Memphis won this game 9-5, so don’t discount the possibility that I’m suddenly clairvoyant.)
Gabe: Missouri 45, Memphis 33
AROUND THE SEC
SEASON TOTALS (ATS)
Mitchell: 15-14
Gabe: 15-14
Vanderbilt (+11) at Kentucky
Mitchell: Kentucky
Gabe: Kentucky
Alabama (-28 1/2) at Tennessee
Mitchell: Alabama
Gabe: Tennessee
Tulsa (+6) at Arkansas
Mitchell: Arkansas
Gabe: Arkansas
Auburn (-4) at Ole Miss
Mitchell: Auburn
Gabe: Ole Miss
Mississippi State (+6 1/2) at LSU
Mitchell: Mississippi State
Gabe: Mississippi State
