Ultimate Preview: Mizzou vs Georgia

Missouri’s rushing attack has improved in each of the first three games this season. But the Tigers haven’t faced a defensive front with near the talent of Georgia’s. The Bulldogs held South Carolina to just 54 yards on 20 carries in Week Two, and while Middle Tennessee totaled 158 yards on the ground last week, 96 of those came after halftime, when the game was well out of reach. Missouri will have to hope that Georgia sells out to stop the pass, creating some rushing lanes for Larry Rountree III and company. EDGE: Georgia

When Mizzou throws

Missouri was one of the few teams that found success passing against Georgia during the regular season last year. Drew Lock threw for 253 yards and four touchdowns. This season, Lock has come out on fire, and the Bulldog pass defense could be a bit vulnerable. Georgia gave up 282 yards to South Carolina’s Jake Bentley, and the Bulldogs only have one sack this season. Meanwhile, Missouri’s offensive line has been excellent in its pass protection thus far. If Missouri is going to win, it’s going to be because Lock outduels Jake Fromm in a shootout. EDGE: Missouri

When Georgia runs

Georgia gashed Missouri for 370 yards on the ground last season. Even though the dynamic duo of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are now gone to the NFL, the Bulldog ground game is off to a strong start again this season. Georgia ranks 14th nationally with 272 rushing yards per game and sixth nationally at 6.8 yards per attempt. Those numbers aren’t inflated by games against Austin Peay and Middle Tennessee, either. Against South Carolina, the Bulldogs rushed for 271 yards. However, Missouri’s defensive line has held strong against the run so far this year, allowing an SEC-best 74.7 yards per game on the ground. This matchup should reveal whether the Tigers can keep that up against better competition. EDGE: Push

When Georgia throws

Fromm hasn’t put up huge numbers so far this season, but Georgia also hasn’t asked him to do much. When he has thrown, Fromm has been incredibly efficient; his completion percentage of 80.4 is the highest in the country among qualifying quarterbacks. Facing a Missouri defense that just surrendered 572 yards through the air to Purdue quarterback David Blough, Fromm could be poised for a big game. EDGE: Georgia

Special Teams

Not many opponents figure to have an advantage over Missouri in the kicking game this season, but Georgia, led by bespectacled place kicker Rodrigo Blankenship, might. Blankenship made 20 of 23 field goals a season ago and was selected as a second-team preseason all-American prior to this year. Meanwhile, Bulldog punter Jake Camarda has a marginally higher average than Missouri’s Corey Fatony. Neither team has made an especially notable play in the return game so far this season. EDGE: Georgia

Coaching

Nick Saban is clearly the gold standard in college football coaching, and Kirby Smart might be as close a replica to Saban as there is. Smart spent nine seasons as an assistant under Saban before taking over for Mark Richt at Georgia, and he didn’t take long to restore the program to its height. It doesn’t get much better than taking a team to the national title game in year two. EDGE: Georgia

Intangibles

If you read our message board, you probably know that since this game will kick off at 11 a.m., there’s no way the Tigers can possibly win. Just kidding. But in reality, Georgia brings back a roster that has experienced winning the SEC and participating in the College Football Playoff. Plus the Bulldogs should be confident after winning their first three games by a combined score of 125-34, including a 24-point win on the road against South Carolina. Even though Missouri is off to its first 3-0 start since 2015, the Tigers can’t match that level of momentum. EDGE: Georgia

THREE KEYS TO A MIZZOU WIN

1. Air it out

As stated above, the one major advantage Missouri figures to have in this game is Lock. For the Tigers to win, he’s going to have to do something special. Lock, as well as the Tigers’ pass protection and receivers, has been outstanding so far this year. This is perhaps his best chance to enhance his Missouri legacy with a monumental win.

2. Find a way to pressure Jake Fromm

The blame for Missouri’s dismal performance in pass defense against Purdue doesn’t just fall on the secondary. The Tiger defense almost never made Blough uncomfortable, putting the defensive backs in the difficult position of having to cover receivers for extended periods. The Tigers can’t afford to do that against Georgia. Whether it’s by playing new guys at defensive end or bringing more pressure via blitz, the Tigers have to pressure Fromm. If they can make him uncomfortable in the pocket, the defensive backs’ job will get significantly easier.

3. Create turnovers

The best way to pull off an upset is to win the turnover battle. Missouri has one takeaway in each of its first three games, but it will likely need more to come out positive in the turnover margin against the Bulldogs. Turnovers create easy scoring opportunities and generate positive momentum, two necessary ingredients for Missouri to beat a more talented Georgia team.

GAME DAY OVER/UNDER

Jake Fromm 326 passing yards (his career high): Mitchell over/Gabe under

UGA 249.5 rushing yards: Mitchell under/Gabe under

Emanuel Hall 74.5 receiving yards: Mitchell over/Gabe under

Drew Lock 2.5 touchdown passes: Mitchell over/Gabe over

Mizzou 1.5 turnovers: Mitchell under/Gabe over

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE GAME

Mitchell: Johnathon Johnson

Gabe: Albert Okwuegbunam

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE GAME

Mitchell: Khalil Oliver

Gabe: Adam Sparks

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION

Mitchell: Georgia 48, Missouri 31

Gabe: Georgia 45, Missouri 35

SEC PREDICTIONS

Season Totals (ATS): Mitchell 7-4, Gabe 6-5

Kent State at Ole Miss (-28)

Mitchell: Ole Miss

Gabe: Ole Miss

Texas A&M at Alabama (-27)

Mitchell: Alabama

Gabe: Alabama

South Carolina at Vanderbilt (+2 1/2)

Mitchell: South Carolina

Gabe: South Carolina

Louisiana Tech at LSU (-20)

Mitchell: Louisiana Tech

Gabe: Louisiana Tech

Mississippi State at Kentucky (+10)

Mitchell: Mississippi State

Gabe: Mississippi State

Florida at Tennessee (+4 1/2)

Mitchell: Florida

Gabe: Florida

Arkansas at Auburn (-30)

Mitchell: Auburn

Gabe: Arkansas