Ultimate Preview: Kentucky

When Mizzou runs: Kentucky’s 6-1 start to the season has been fueled by a strong running game and a stingy defense. The Wildcat defense ranks second nationally in scoring, allowing just 12.9 points per game, so it’s no surprise the Wildcats have been good at defending the run. Kentucky is allowing opponents to rush for 112 yards per game, which ranks 17th nationally. Missouri’s rushing attack, which features three unique weapons in Larry Rountree III, Damarea Crockett and Tyler Badie, has come alive in recent weeks, but Kentucky’s will be the best run defense the Tigers have faced all season. EDGE: Kentucky

When Mizzou throws: This category — and likely Missouri’s chances of winning — hinge on which Drew Lock shows up Saturday. If it’s the Lock who threw four touchdowns and completed nearly 80 percent of his passes against Memphis, Kentucky likely won’t be able to score with Missouri. On the other hand, if Lock reverts to his form against South Carolina and Alabama, during which he completed just 48 percent of his passes while throwing one touchdown and four interceptions, Kentucky likely has an advantage. Lock’s college career has been defined by struggles against quality defenses. This matchup presents a big opportunity to reverse that narrative. EDGE: Missouri

When Kentucky runs: Kentucky has run its offense through tailback Benny Snell Jr. all season. Snell leads the SEC and ranks sixth nationally in rushing yards per game. He racked up 169 yards on the ground last week in Kentucky’s win over Vanderbilt. Missouri has generally defended the run well this season, although Memphis rushed for 200 yards last week. Expect the Tigers to load the box and do everything it can to slow down Snell because, as we’ll see momentarily, Kentucky’s passing attack has been nonexistent this season. EDGE: Kentucky

When Kentucky throws: Kentucky threw for 18 yards against Vanderbilt last week. In the entire game. Perhaps the craziest part: The Wildcats won. Kentucky is averaging just 127.3 yards per game through the air this season. That ranks 124th out of 130 FBS teams — and five of the six teams ranked lower run triple-option offenses. Kentucky coach Mark Stoops suggested that the Wildcats might give reps to quarterbacks aside from starter Terry Wilson this week, so maybe that will help the passing game, but we still expect Kentucky to lean heavily on its ground attack. EDGE: Missouri

Special Teams: Last week wasn’t a good showing for Missouri kicker Tucker McCann, who missed an extra point and a 35-yard field goal against Memphis, but Missouri will still likely have the better kicker in this game. Kentucky kicker Miles Butler has only attempted seven field goals on the season, and he’s only made three. Butler is just two for six on kicks of 30 yards and longer. The Wildcats do have an edge in the punting game, however. Max Duffy ranks eighth nationally in punting average at more than 46 yards per punt. Corey Fatony, meanwhile, is averaging 41.6 yards per kick. Throw in the fact that Missouri ranks dead last nationally in punt return average, and Kentucky could gain an edge in field position through the punting game, which, given the Wildcats’ style of play, could be significant. EDGE: Push

Coaching: This breakout season for Kentucky has been pointed to by coaches across the country as evidence that, despite the current instant-gratification climate in college football, patience can be rewarded. After taking over Kentucky’s program from Joker Phillips, Stoops won two games in his first season then five in each of his next two. After making bowl games each of the past two years, Kentucky has already won six games this season. Most importantly, Stoops has had enough time to recruit players who fit his scheme and instill a homogenous culture, something Barry Odom has talked about struggling to do in his first two seasons at Missouri. Odom may wind up replicating the success of Stoops, but for right now, we’ll give the edge to the more seasoned coach. EDGE: Kentucky

Intangibles: On the field, Missouri does match up favorably against Kentucky. The Tigers’ big weakness has been its pass coverage, and the Wildcats don’t appear to be equipped to exploit that. But the big question for Missouri is whether this team can finally come through against a ranked team with a good defense. So far during the careers of Drew Lock and Barry Odom, Missouri has been unable to win such games, and at this point, you have to think it’s something that enters the mindset of the players. Kentucky, meanwhile, has already beat two ranked teams and is ranked its highest since 2007. The Wildcats will know that a win this week sets them up for a potential winner-take-all matchup at home against Georgia for the lead in the SEC East. EDGE: Kentucky

THREE KEYS FOR MIZZOU

1. Make Kentucky beat you through the air

Given the track record of Missouri’s secondary, it seems strange that this could be a key to victory for the Tigers. But the Missouri defense needs to load the box, stop Snell and company on the early downs, and put Wilson in obvious passing situations on third down. Even a Tiger defense that allowed Purdue’s David Blough to throw for 572 yards in a game earlier this season should like its chances against a quarterback that mustered just 18 yards through the air last week.

2. Get the defense some rest

Kentucky’s defense is talented, to be sure, but it has also benefited from the Wildcat offense’s ability to control the ball and keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. Kentucky has won the time of possession battle in four of its five conference game so far this season, and the only time it didn’t do so, against Texas A&M, it lost the game. Missouri has significantly slowed its offensive tempo since Derek Dooley took over the offense, but the Tigers have still been prone to some quick three-and-outs at times this season. Missouri needs to sustain drives and give its defense time to recuperate between possessions so that it doesn’t get worn down by the Kentucky running game.

3. Score touchdowns in the red zone

Kentucky has been lights-out when opposing teams enter the red zone this season. Wildcat opponents have scored touchdowns on just 35.3 percent of drives that pass the Kentucky 20-yard line this season. That ranks third nationally. Missouri, meanwhile, has had some struggles converting red zone possessions into touchdowns, most notably in a loss to South Carolina. The Kentucky defense may not give Missouri many opportunities to score points, so when it does have those opportunities, the Tiger offense needs to take full advantage.

GAME DAY OVER/UNDER

Benny Snell 125 rushing yards: Mitchell Over, Gabe Over

Kentucky 150 passing yards: Mitchell Under, Gabe Under

Missouri 1.5 turnovers: Mitchell Over, Gabe Under

Albert Okwuegbunam 90 receiving yards: Mitchell Under, Gabe Over

Missouri 8.5 penalties: Mitchell Under, Gabe Under

PLAYERS OF THE GAME

OFFENSE

Mitchell: Jalen Knox

Gabe: Damarea Crockett

DEFENSE

Mitchell: Terez Hall

Gabe: Cale Garrett

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION

Mitchell: 24-20 Missouri

Gabe: 29-20 Missouri

AROUND THE SEC

SEASON TOTALS (ATS)

Mitchell: 18-16

Gabe: 16-18

Georgia (-7) vs Florida

Mitchell: Florida

Gabe: Georgia

Texas A&M (+2 1/2) at Mississippi State

Mitchell: Texas A&M

Gabe: Texas A&M

Tennessee (+7.5) at South Carolina

Mitchell: South Carolina

Gabe: South Carolina

Vanderbilt (-1.5) at Arkansas

Mitchell: Vanderbilt

Gabe: Arkansas