Ultimate Preview: Tennessee

When Mizzou runs: The ground game has suddenly emerged as the strength of Missouri’s offense in recent weeks. The week after rushing for 221 yards against Florida, the Tigers racked up 238 yards on the ground against Vanderbilt. Missouri will face a Tennessee defense that has had some issues against the run this season — the Volunteers have allowed 200-plus yards rushing four times in ten games this season — but that dominated against Kentucky. Tennessee held the Wildcats’ run-heavy offense to 77 yards on the ground. Expect Missouri to keep looking to pound the rock, but doing so might not be as easy this week. EDGE: Missouri

When Mizzou throws: Tennessee got shredded through the air in the first game of the season, as West Virginia’s Will Grier threw for 429 yards and five touchdowns. Since then, however, the Volunteer pass defense has improved dramatically. Tennessee has held seven of its past nine opponents under 200 yards passing. Against the better passing attacks it has faced, though, Tennessee has been vulnerable, as Alabama and Auburn both threw for more than 300 yards. Missouri quarterback Drew Lock has played well the past two games, and with Emanuel Hall on the field, he won’t be afraid to air the ball out. One key for the Tigers will be blocking Tennessee's Darrell Taylor, who had four sacks in last week’s game. EDGE: Push

When Tennessee runs: For the most part, the Volunteers have been dismal at running the ball this season. Tennessee ranks No. 104 nationally in rushing yards per game, and last in the SEC. Yet against Kentucky, the ground game showed signs of life, as three different players ran for at least 50 yards and the team totaled 215 yards rusHing. Missouri’s run defense has been the inverse of Tennessee’s rushing offense — solid for much of the season, but uncharacteristically bad a week ago. The Tigers allowed Vanderbilt to rack up 216 yards on the ground. Expect Missouri to be better this week. EDGE: Missouri

When Tennessee throws: Volunteer quarterback Jarrett Guarantano hasn’t put up flashy numbers in his first season at the starter, but he has been efficient. Guarantano averages just over 170 yards per game, but he is completing 65.1 percent of his passes (which ranks No. 27 nationally) and has thrown just two interceptions all season. His passer rating of 176.8 actually ranks higher than Lock. Missouri’s secondary has been better in its last few games, but Guarantano will likely have opportunities to take a few downfield shots, especially in the middle of the field. EDGE: Tennessee

Special Teams: The “third phase” of the game has proven problematic for Missouri this season. This week, the biggest challenge for the Tigers will be containing Tennessee punt returner Marquez Callaway. Callaway is averaging 11.6 yards per punt return on the year, third-best in the SEC, and he has returned two punts for touchdowns in his career. On the flip side, Missouri may make a change at punt returner this week, as Johnathon Johnson muffed two punts a week ago (though he recovered both). The Tigers rank No. 129 out of 130 FBS teams in punt return average. Placekicker Tucker McCann has also struggled of late, missing three kicks in the past four weeks, with two of those coming from inside 40 yards. EDGE: Tennessee

Coaching: Jeremy Pruitt inherited a mess at Tennessee, and he’s already taken a few steps to suggest he could be the long-term answer for the Volunteers. But his first year on the job hasn’t been free of growing pains. Barry Odom knows all about those growing pains, but in his third season, Odom appears to have his best team to date. Plus, he owns the month of November; during Odom’s tenure, the Tigers are 8-2 in SEC games during the month. EDGE: Missouri

Intangibles: Tennessee will be riding high after upsetting Kentucky a week ago. That could buoy the Volunteers, and it could also work against them. As we saw with Missouri last week, a team coming off a big upset can start out flat the following week. Missouri, meanwhile, seems focused on reaching the eight-win mark, which would require winning out to finish the regular season. As Lock said Tuesday, “if we don’t get to 8-4, (this season) just won’t feel right.” EDGE: Missouri

THREE KEYS FOR MIZZOU

1. Make life hard on Guarantano. Guarantano has been at his best when the Volunteers haven’t asked him to do too much. If Missouri can put the sophomore in obvious passing situations and pressure him (which has been a weak spot for the Tiger defense all season), it might be able to force Guarantano into some mistakes. The easiest way to do so will be to shut down Tennessee’s run game, which brings us to our next point...

2. Return the run defense to form. The Tigers looked dominant against the run for stretches of the season, but Vanderbilt was able to use misdirection to create a few big holes for running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn. Vaughn’s success on the ground helped open up the middle of the field for the Commodore passing attack. Based on the season-long numbers, Missouri should be able to shut down Tennessee’s ground game, and doing so would put a lot of pressure on the young Guarantano.

3. Don’t give away easy points. This matchup figures to boil down to whether Tennessee can generate enough offense to score with Missouri. The Volunteers rank last in the SEC in total yardage, but if the Tigers give up short fields or easy scores, the Tennessee defense is certainly good enough to make them pay. Missouri’s four losses this season have been characterized by turnovers, coverage gaffes leading to long passing touchdowns and special teams mishaps. Like most games, the Tigers likely don’t have a wide enough margin of error to win in spite of those mistakes.

GAME DAY OVER/UNDER

Mizzou 199.5 yards rushing: Mitchell over/Gabe over

Daniel Parker 24.5 yards receiving: Mitchell over/Gabe under

Mizzou 1.5 turnovers: Mitchell under/Gabe under

Jarrett Guarantano 225 yards passing: Mitchell over/Gabe over

Missouri 4.5 tackles for loss: Mitchell oveer/Gabe under

PLAYERS OF THE GAME

Offense

Michell: Emanuel Hall

Gabe: Larry Rountree III

Defense

Mitchell: Akial Byers

Gabe: Christian Holmes

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION

Mitchell: Missouri 29, Tennessee 23

Gabe: Missouri 31, Tennessee 21

SEC PICKS

So far this season

Mitchell 26-22-1

Gabe 25-23-1

The Citadel (+51) at Alabama

Mitchell: Alabama

Gabe: The Citadel

Middle Tennessee (+14) at Kentucky

Mitchell: MTSU

Gabe: MTSU

Idaho (+39.5) at Florida

Mitchell: Florida

Gabe: Florida

Arkansas (+20) at Mississippi State

Mitchell: Mississippi State

Gabe: Mississippi State

UMASS +43.5 at Georgia

Mitchell: UMASS

Gabe: Georgia

Liberty (+28.5) at Auburn

Mitchell: Auburn

Gabe: Auburn

UAB (+15.5) at Texas A&M

Mitchell: UAB

Gabe: UAB

Rice (+43.5) at LSU

Mitchell: LSU

Gabe: Rice

Ole Miss (+2.5) at Vanderbilt

Mitchell: Vanderbilt

Gabe: Vanderbilt

Chattanooga (+30) at South Carolina

Mitchell: South Carolina

Gabe: South Carolina